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发帖数: 2429 | 1 奥巴马没戏了。
http://money.cnn.com/2012/11/06/investing/stocks-election-obama
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- President Obama and Mitt Romney may be in a dead heat
as Americans head to the polls on Election Day, but the former
Massachusetts governor is an overwhelming favorite of Wall Street.
Twelve out of 18 investment strategists and money managers surveyed by
CNNMoney said the stock market would perform better with Romney in the White
House than during a second Obama term.
As the country struggles with tepid economic growth, stubbornly high
unemployment, more than $16 trillion in national debt, a looming debt
ceiling and the fiscal cliff, "Romney offers the potential for a more
bipartisan, pro-growth set of fiscal policy initiatives, which ultimately
would be better for the stock market," said Phil Orlando, chief equity
market strategist at Federated Investors.
Related: Obama vs. Romney: How they'd tackle deficits
The case for Romney: Following the election, the first big item on lawmakers
' agenda is addressing the fiscal cliff -- the simultaneous onset of tax
increases and spending cuts that will be triggered on Jan. 1. While
Washington has been trying to come up with plans to avoid falling off the
cliff, little progress has been made amid the current political gridlock.
Historically, political gridlock has been considered a positive for the
stock market since it minimizes drastic policy changes, but experts say that
a continued stalemate would be too detrimental for the economy, and the
stock market. In fact, economists widely believe that Washington's failure
to address the fiscal cliff could push the country back into recession and
drive unemployment higher.
"Normally, people think gridlock is good for the markets, but today the U.S.
has pressing problems that need to be addressed," said Dorsey Farr, co-
founder of French Wolf & Farr, an investment advisory firm in Atlanta. "The
economy really needs a shot in the arm and that's going to take new
leadership and some new policies. The market will do better with a president
who understands business, appreciates the virtues of capitalism, and
demonstrates a willingness and ability to work with Congress to lead on
these tough issues."
Romney would be better for the stock market even beyond the fiscal cliff,
said Ben Halliburton, managing director at Tradition Capital Management,
pointing to the candidate's promises to loosen regulatory reins in Corporate
America and slash tax rates.
Related: Corporate taxes: What Obama and Romney would do
The case for Obama: While Romney might create more business-friendly
policies over time, Romney could also bring a big element of uncertainty,
said Ryan Detrick, equity strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
"With Obama, the market knows what to expect. Whether you agree with his
policies or not, the odds of a big surprise from him are slim," Detrick said
.
Plus, research shows that interest rates and monetary policy influence share
prices much more than which political party is in the White House or
controls Congress, said Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial
Services, who argues that Obama would be a better president for the stock
market.
So any rally on Wall Street in celebration of a Romney win could be short
lived as investors begin to speculate about who Romney could appoint as a
new Fed chairman after Ben Bernanke's term ends in January 2014. Romney has
been critical of Bernanke. It's possible that Romney could name someone to
lead the central bank who would be tougher on inflation and less likely to
announce further stimulative measures. Many investors believe that rates
near zero and several rounds of bond purchases by the Fed have helped stocks
during the past few years.
Experts also point out that the market has historically delivered a stronger
performance under a Democratic president. According to CMC Markets, the
average monthly return on the stock market has been 0.73% under Democratic
presidents, nearly twice the 0.38% return under Republicans. During Obama's
term, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 60%.
Still, deep-pocketed financiers who supported Obama during the 2008 election
cycle have abandoned the president and flocked toward Romney, providing
more donations to his campaign than any other industry except retired
workers.
Individuals who work in the securities and investment industry have doled
out nearly $20 million to the Romney campaign, according to data from the
Center for Responsive Politics, while they've given out less than $6 million
to Obama. During the 2008 election, Obama raked in almost $16 million from
Wall Street and John McCain, the Republican nominee, received donations
totaling only $9 million. |
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