d***h
发帖数: 97 | 1 I created a complex method of my own to predict the battleground states on
2012 US presidential election. I used those latest poll data from
realclearpolitics.com, re-analyzed their reliabilities, MOE, independents (
for O, R, or other candidates). Here are my calculation results.
O R
Florida 47.77 50.53
Virginia 47.58 49.79
New Hampshire 48.69 49.04
Wisconsin 49.56 47.84
IOWA 48.81 48.59
Colorado 48.30 49.40
Nevada 50.02 48.62
Ohio 48.66 48.76
I tried but can't attach the colorful map. The result is: O 259, R 279 | l***g
发帖数: 1035 | 2 what's the point of these 'predictions'? the sample is too small to be repre
sentative. and yet there is always a 50-50 chance to get the prediction righ
t.
this is like trying to predict which side of the tossed coin up by analysing
the difference in weight on each side.
(
【在 d***h 的大作中提到】
: I created a complex method of my own to predict the battleground states on
: 2012 US presidential election. I used those latest poll data from
: realclearpolitics.com, re-analyzed their reliabilities, MOE, independents (
: for O, R, or other candidates). Here are my calculation results.
: O R
: Florida 47.77 50.53
: Virginia 47.58 49.79
: New Hampshire 48.69 49.04
: Wisconsin 49.56 47.84
: IOWA 48.81 48.59
| f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 3 I guess lz got hint from Rove's number 279, it could be accidental same
though. |
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