l****z 发帖数: 29846 | 1 October 31, 2012 by Warner Todd Huston
Based on his economic election model, Yale University economist Ray Fair
predicts that GOP nominee Mitt Romney will pull out a sparse victory in
November.
Fair’s model successfully predicts the winners of every election but two
since 1916. The two, the 1960 election of John Kennedy and the 1992 election
of Bill Clinton, are the only ones his economics-based electoral prediction
model gets wrong.
Fair uses several economic indicators in his model to determine winners.
Those factors include the per capita growth rate of the gross domestic
product, inflation, and the number of quarters that the GDP grew more than 3
.2% during the incumbent’s term.
But even Fair’s model predicts a race that is within his margin of error.
Obama could still pull this out despite an economy that argues against his
re-election.
As The Wall Street Journal’s Justin Lahart postulates, this could be
because voters don’t exactly see the election in pure economic terms and
with this particular election being so close, that small differentiation
between logical economic indicators and the emotional ties some voters have
to their choice can easily upset Fair’s economic prediction model this time
out.
Still, Lahart also notes that Friday’s report that the economy grew at but
a tiny 2% rate, the three most unfavorable statistics for Obama are “now in
hand.” These factors plugged into Fair’s model would argue in favor of
Mitt Romney winning on Election Day. |
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