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发帖数: 3942 | 1 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/10/03/fact-che
3:51PM EST October 4. 2012 - In the first presidential debate Wednesday
night, President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney packed their
responses with accusations about each other's policies and defenses of their
own.
Here are a few claims that deserve a deeper look:
Private-sector job gains
Claim: Obama said the U.S. economy has created 5 million private-sector jobs
the past 30 months.
DEBATE: Battle of economic visions
Facts: After the economy plummeted in late 2007 and throughout 2009, the
United States has gained 4.6 million private-sector jobs since the labor
market bottomed in February 2010 — or 5.1 million under preliminary
revisions released last week that are not part of the official tally by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
ANALYSIS: Romney plays strong offense
Still, that's weak by historical standards. Under President George W. Bush,
the private sector also added 5 million jobs in the 30 months after
employment hit bottom following the 2001 downturn, and the pace of private-
sector gains in the previous two recoveries was far stronger.
Tax cuts
Claim: Obama says Romney's tax plan would cut taxes by $5 trillion over 10
years, inflating the deficit.
Facts: Romney has proposed cutting tax rates by 20% in each bracket, which,
the liberal Center for Budget and Policy Priorities says would cost $4.9
trillion over 10 years. Romney said his plan will be paid for by curtailing
tax deductions, so middle-class people pay less overall and upper-income
people don't see lower taxes. Last month in Ohio, Romney said middle-class
people would see little change in their taxes under his plan.
Romney has declined to say what tax deductions he would end. The non-
partisan Tax Policy Center has contended that middle-class families would
see taxes rise about $2,000 a year under Romney's plan if he keeps his
promise to make the tax reform revenue-neutral, arguing that it can't be
done without ending popular middle-class deductions on mortgage interest and
charitable contributions.
The American Enterprise Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank, has
said that the gap can be closed by ending tax breaks targeting the wealthy,
including tax exemptions for interest on municipal bonds.
Romney said he would not raise taxes and would not approve any tax cut that
would expand the deficit. He argued that tax cuts will increase investment,
putting more people to work and increasing the taxpaying population.
The middle class
Claim: Romney said middle-class families' income is down $4,300 since Obama
took office.
Facts: According to a March 2012 analysis by Maryland-based economic
consulting firm Sentier Research, Romney was correct. According to their
analysis, based on February 2012 Current Population Data compiled by the U.S
. Census, the median household income was $50,065 in February, compared to $
54,481 in December 2007 — right before the recession started, and nearly 11
months before Obama was elected.
The current median household income is $50,678.
What Romney didn't say is that the decline in real median household income
has been occurring over the course of the past decade, well before Obama
took office. The trend has continued under the Obama administration, but it
did not start there.
Taxes for the wealthy
Claim: Romney says he wouldn't cut taxes on the wealthy.
Facts: Romney wants to cut personal taxes by 20% for everyone, including the
wealthy. He also wants to cut taxes on interest, dividends and capital
gains for Americans with adjusted gross income below $200,000.
Obama, however, wants to return taxes to Clinton-era rates for individuals
who make more than $200,000 in annual taxable income and families who make
more than $250,000 in taxable income. So Romney wants to maintain tax cuts
for the wealthy that Obama would eliminate.
Energy independence
Claim: North America can become energy independent under Romney's plan,
creating 4 million jobs.
Facts: This is likely to happen anyway, possibly as soon as the end of the
decade, Citigroup said in a book-length report earlier this year.
The key factor is not changes in policy, but changes in drilling technology
that have let America increase oil production faster than any other nation
in the world in the past four years, Citigroup said.
Declining crude oil imports, and more exports of natural gas and refined oil
products, could reduce the trade deficit by as much as 40%, adding 1% a
year to economic growth, Moody's Analytics estimates. Citgroup estimated
that the emergence of the United States and Canada as a "new Middle East"
could add 3.6 million jobs.
Medicare cuts
Claim: Romney said Obama's health care law cuts $716 billion from Medicare
which will hurt current beneficiaries.
Facts: This has been one of Romney's favorite lines of attack, but his claim
that Obama's health care law cuts $716 billion in benefits for current
Medicare beneficiaries is not true. The health care law will limit payments
to health care providers and insurers — not senior citizens' benefits — as
part of an effort to rein in costs over the course of the next decade.
Romney and other opponents of the law, however, contend that the payment
cuts would affect seniors' benefits as an unintended consequence because
they assert doctors will stop accepting Medicare patients and it could force
some health care facilities to close.
The law has not yet been fully implemented, so the cuts' effects on
beneficiaries are uncertain. But the law as written does not cut benefits
for senior citizens. It is also worth noting that Romney's running mate, Rep
. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., included the same spending cuts in his own 2012 budget
blueprint that House Republicans supported with near unanimity.
Clean energy
Claim: Romney said clean energy interests got $90 billion in tax breaks
under Obama, and that half of those companies receiving breaks went out of
business.
Facts: The president's 2009 stimulus bill included a combination of over $90
billion in spending, financing and tax breaks for clean energy investments,
but it's false that half of the companies went broke. Some of the Energy
Department's loans went to firms that failed, most notably the solar energy
company Solyndra, which cost taxpayers $535 million, but Romney's claim that
half of the companies went broke is inaccurate. In a 2011 story, USA TODAY
reported that the stocks of many of 45 publicly traded companies receiving
stimulus funds had outperformed the stock market, despite Solyndra and other
, smaller failures. The money, mostly in loans and loan guarantees, are
helping build factories for companies such as Ford, Nissan and Tesla Motor.
One beneficiary is health care technology company Athenahealth, whose shares
have more than doubled. Its CEO, Jonathan Bush, is a first cousin of
President George W. Bush.
Size of government
Claim: Romney said Spain spends 42% of its economy on government and the
United States does, too.
Facts: Romney's claim appears to be based on the "Index of Economic Freedom,
" a compilation of economic statistics put together by the conservative
Heritage Foundation in conjunction with the Wall Street Journal. Given that
source, Romney's numbers are off, but in the ballpark.
According to the index, Spain spends 45.8% of its gross domestic product on
government. That's before severe austerity measures were announced last week
in a "crisis" budget that cuts government ministries by 9% across the board
. The comparable figure for the United States, according to the index, is 42
.2%. But it should be noted that federal spending accounts for only about 24
% of the economy, according to the Office of Management and Budget. The
remainder, which comes from state and local spending, roughly squares with
estimates of government spending by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Rising health care costs
Claim: Health care costs have risen $2,500 per family per year under Obama.
Facts: Partly true, but health care inflation has slowed notably under Obama
. Health insurance costs rose 4% last year, according to the Kaiser Family
Foundation. That rate is far below the 10% to 13% seen in 2003 and 2004.
Kaiser says the average employer-sponsored family health insurance policy
costs $15,745, compared with $12,680 in 2008. The portion paid by workers,
after employers' contributions, rose to $4,316 from $3,354.
"Rates of increase in total health spending have been holding at 4%-6% per
year recently," Kaiser CEO Drew Altman wrote Sept. 12. "Per capita spending
— which is most analogous to premiums — has been rising about a percentage
point below that. These are strikingly low numbers to those of us who have
been studying health costs for a long time. A 4% increase in health premiums
is good news.''
Health care
Claim: Obama's health care law is "essentially the identical model" of
Romney's Massachusetts health care law.
Facts: Romney's Massachusetts health care law served as the policy basis for
Obama's health care law, and the two laws include many of the same
foundations, such as coverage for pre-existing conditions. An NBC News
analysis of White House records show that senior White House officials had
at least a dozen meetings in 2009 with health care advisers who also helped
shape Romney's 2006 law. Romney's law received significant bipartisan
support from Democrats, unlike Obama's which was largely opposed by
Republicans. "Like Obamacare, the Massachusetts law includes a mandate that
individuals buy private health insurance, and offers subsidies to those who
need them."
Tax hikes for the wealthy
Claim: Romney said raising the personal tax rates for the wealthy would kill
jobs because many small businesses pay taxes as individuals.
Facts: About 3% of small businesses earn sufficient income to be impacted by
higher individual taxes, though many of those are among the most successful
who do a lot of hiring and investing, according to Moody's Analytics. Still
, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi says it's stretch to argue that raising
the rate would significantly impact small business hiring.
Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff said Silicon Valley entrepreneurs rarely
consider tax policy in deciding where to begin companies, saying it's "
ridiculous" to assert that changes in capital gains taxes and top tax rates
will have a meaningful impact of formation of high-growth start-ups. |
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