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PPP: Scott's popularity keeps dropping, even within his own party
Public Policy Polling obviously took this survey before last night's
legendary LeBron show, concluding that the polarizing LeBron James is more
popular than the governor. Nonetheless their findings on Gov. Rick Scott are
interesting as they find that the governor's popularity in the midst of the
voter purge is dropping, even within his own party.
Key point: "Scott’s undoing begins with dwindling support in his own party.
Just 53% of Republicans approve of his job performance, down from 60% in
April. 17% of Republicans would rather take their chances with unknown
Democrat Nan Rich in the gubernatorial election than vote for Scott."
Tom Jensen, PPP director writes:
Several polls have shown now that Rick Scott would lose in 2014 if Charlie
Crist became a Democrat and ran against him but our newest survey finds that
Democrats might not need that high of a profile candidate to knock off
Scott, at least if he remains this unpopular. 5% of voters in the state have
a positive opinion of State Senator Nan Rich. Only 14% have even heard of
her. And despite that she still leads Scott by 12 points in a hypothetical
match up, 47-35.
Obviously that finding has a lot more to do with Scott than it does with
Rich. His approval rating has sunk back down to 31%, with 56% of voters
disapproving of him. One thing that hasn't done his popularity any favors
lately is his push to eliminate some people from the voter rolls. Only 34%
of voters approve of that effort to 50% who disagree with it.
Some people have compared Scott to Wisconsin's Scott Walker, saying he could
have a similar sort of resurrection in his standing. But the lowest level
of popularity Walker ever hit in our polling was 43%. That would be a record
high for Scott if he ever got there.
-Like voters in most of the country Floridians are moving on gay marriage.
They're still narrowly against it with 45% opposed and 42% supportive. But
that three point margin represents an 8 point shift from last September when
48% were opposed and just 37% in support. This very much looks to be an
Obama effect. Republicans and independents have moved very little on the
issue but Democrats have moved 20 points from +15 support (48/33) to +35
support (61/26). The most dramatic movement has been among African Americans
who've shifted 48 points from being opposed -30 in the fall (23/53) to now
supporting it by 18 points (49/31). 72% of Florida voters support either gay
marriage or civil unions, with only 26% opposed to any form of legal
recognition. Even 61% of Republicans support some form of legal recognition
for same sex couples.
-There are major partisan and racial divides when it comes to the attitude
of Floridians toward the Heat and their playoff run. Overall 36% of voters
in the state say they're rooting for the Heat while 28% say they are not,
and 35% are not sure. Democrats are pulling for the Heat by a 47/23 margin,
but Republicans say they are not by a 29/34 spread. The contrasts are more
stark along racial lines. 75% of African Americans are pulling for the Heat
to 10% who are not, but only 29% of whites want them to win while 31% don't.
Interestingly only 51% of Florida voters have an opinion about LeBron James
(32/19) and that drops to 46% for Dwayne Wade (37/9) and 34% for Chris Bosh
(25/9.) There are big divides along racial lines in all their numbers. James
is at 26/20 with whites and 63/7 with African Americans. For Wade those
breakdowns are 30/8 and 73/4 and for Bosh they're 18/9 and 61/4.
Here's their release: Download PPP_Release_MiscellaneousFL_060812[1]
Raleigh, N.C. – Ever since taking his talents to Tallahassee, Florida Gov.
Rick Scott has had a tough time in the arena of public opinion.
In December, he was awarded the dubious honor of least popular governor in
the country after polling a 26% approval rating. In the last statewide poll
of his approval rating in mid-April, he polled at 34% approval. While his
new approval rating—31%—isn’t the worst he’s ever polled, Scott may have
finally hit rock bottom—he is now officially less popular than one of the
most polarizing figures in American pop culture, 3-time NBA MVP LeBron James.
James, whose Miami Heat are vying for their second consecutive NBA Finals
appearance and first championship since 2006, has a favorability rating of
32% among Floridians. Time—and wins and awards and highlight reel dunks—is
proving to be an effective antidote for the maligned superstar. His
favorability rating has improved 10 points since July, when Floridians were
last polled on their opinion of the 8-time All-Star.
But things are far from getting better for Scott, who was elected with 49%
of the vote in 2010. Nan Rich, minority leader of the Florida State Senate
and the first declared Democratic 2014 gubernatorial candidate, already
holds a 47-35 lead over Scott. To make matters worse, Rich carries just 14%
name recognition in the state, giving credibility to the theory that
literally anyone could beat Scott in 2014.
Scott’s undoing begins with dwindling support in his own party. Just 53% of
Republicans approve of his job performance, down from 60% in April. 17% of
Republicans would rather take their chances with unknown Democrat Nan Rich
in the gubernatorial election than vote for Scott.
Scott is also struggling with women, with whom he has a 25% approval rating,
and Independents (26% approval). Rich wins with Independents in a head-to-
head matchup with Scott, 41-27. Scott’s drop in approval ratings and glum
2014 outlook comes as his voter-elimination efforts are beginning to surface
(and be scrutinized) nationally.
A majority (50%) of Florida voters disapprove of Scott’s push to eliminate
some people from the registered voter rolls. His effort is facing
significant disapproval, despite only 5% of voters saying they know someone
who has been removed from the registered voter rolls this year. 14% of
Hispanics and 8% of African Americans say they know someone who has been
scratched from the voter rolls this year, while only 3% of whites say they
know someone.
Scott’s dismal reception in the Sunshine State may be turning Floridians
against Republicans—Florida voters said they would vote Democratic over
Republican 46-44 if there was an election for Congress held today.
Independents would vote Democratic over Republican 40-38.
Florida voters are becoming more receptive to the idea of same-sex marriage.
Floridians still think same-sex marriage should be illegal, but only by a 3
-point margin (45-42), down from an 11-point margin (48-37) in October, when
Florida voters were last polled on their opinion of same-sex marriage. 72%
of Florida voters believe same-sex couples should either be allowed to marry
or form civil unions, up from 69% in October. Once again, African American
voters are leading the public opinion shift in favor of gay marriage. 49% of
African Americans think same-sex marriage should be legal, up 26 points
from October, and 66% believe in legalized same-sex marriage/civil unions,
up from 50% in October.
While support for same-sex marriage or civil unions is undivided, Floridians
’ support for LeBron, Dwyane Wade and the Heat is far from it. The Heat and
their two superstars are divisive along a number of demographics, including
race, age and political party. The most profound divide is along racial
lines. 75% of African Americans are rooting for the Heat to 29% of Whites;
63% of African Americans have a favorable opinion of LeBron to 26% of Whites
; and Dwyane Wade has a 73% favorability rating with African Americans to a
30% favorability rating with Whites.
Young people are more supportive of the Miami Heat. 43% of young voters (age
18 to 29) are rooting for the Heat, while just 31% voters over 65 rooting
for the Heat. 44% of young voters have a favorable opinion of LeBron, while
just 25% of voters older than 65 do. The same goes for Wade—44%
favorability with young voters to 27% with voters over 65.
47% of Democrats are rooting for Heat to 29% of Republicans.
42% of Democrats have favorable opinion of LeBron to 23% of Republicans.
Dwyane Wade is similarly divisive, with 47% favorability rating among
Democrats to 27% favorability among Republicans.
Heat power forward and 7-time All-Star Chris Bosh has a 25% favorability
rating in Florida, and Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has a 20% favorability
rating. Orlando Magic center Dwight Howard, who was the focus of a drawn-out
and theatrical trade controversy earlier in the season, is viewed favorably
by 23% of Florida voters.
PPP surveyed 642 Florida voters from May 31st to June 3rd. The margin of
error for the survey is +/-3.9%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by
any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through
automated telephone interviews.
Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/06/scotts-popularity-keeps-dropping-even-within-his-own-party.html#storylink=cpy |
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