l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 By Monty Pelerin
The Obama Problem is simple to explain but impossible to solve. The problem
is Obama himself, and most people not named Barack or Michelle understand
that.
President Obama's political career is in free-fall. He will not be
reelected. Many Democrats and media personalities now understand what
appeared impossible even mere months ago.
Mr. Obama burst onto the political scene as a relatively unknown wunderkind.
He could read a mean teleprompter and did so with fanfare at the 2004
Democrat Convention. He had good speechwriters, an intelligent and
disciplined campaign strategy, a carefully crafted biography, and a highly
compliant media. He was charismatic and eloquent. Joe Biden awkwardly
described him as "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate
and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy."
The Perfect Storm
The 2008 election was the political equivalent of a perfect storm." Two
factors were key to Obama's election:
Americans were disgusted with Washington, and especially with George Bush.
The media anointed Obama as their man. They publicized his strengths and
hid his weaknesses. They painted him as an outsider, someone who could
bridge the gap between political parties and make Washington function. The
media engineered Obama into the nomination and threw Hillary Clinton
overboard in the primary process.
The Republicans chose a sure loser to run -- shopworn Washington-
establishment figure Senator John McCain. McCain offered nothing that had
not already been rejected by the public. He was little more than an elderly
George W. Bush who carried the additional baggage of a Washington insider.
It is likely that any Democrat would have easily beaten McCain.
When the perfect storm cleared, Obama was president.
No president in recent history began his term with higher expectations and
goodwill than Barack Obama, but the promise and exhilaration that
accompanied his election was short-lived. In less than three years, Obama
plummeted from the heights (his "Messiah" entry) to the depths (a "worse
than Jimmy Carter" figure).
The turnaround was astonishing in its speed and magnitude. To put matters
in perspective, it took George Bush almost eight years to hit bottom. And
Bush always had little support from the media, a force that continues to
protect Obama.
How Things Went So Wrong So Quickly
To understand Obama's loss in popularity, it is necessary to recognize that
Barack Obama was a fluke. He was an unlikely candidate, pushed to his party
's nomination as a result of the media. His election was another quirk,
more aberration than achievement. The perfect storm virtually ensured that
the Democrat candidate would win in 2008. It is not a strain to conclude
that the mainstream media, rather than the electorate, put Obama into the
highest office in the land.
In hindsight, a great mistake was made. Even the fawning media and the
Democrat establishment now recognize that, although are unwilling to
publicly admit it. Their behavior is analogous to refusing to discuss a
friend's terminal illness in the hope that it will somehow go away.
The media and the Democratic Party are at risk if the tragedy they foisted
on the nation continues. Their future is intertwined with the Obama Problem
. Both sponsored him, and both may ultimately be held accountable. The
battle so easily won in 2008 may cost them subsequent battles, if not the
war itself.
Both know the risk. They just have no easy way of solving the problem.
Opinions regarding the factors responsible for Mr. Obama's political demise
abound. A full menu is available -- the economy, broken promises, cronyism,
socialism, bailouts, corruption, disillusionment, inexperience,
incompetence, Chicago-style politics, etc. Pundits have a target-rich
environment from which to approach the failure of the Obama presidency.
The factors above are relevant but one level removed from the root cause.
The real problem is that there never was any substance to Obama. He was the
political equivalent of a Potemkin village. There was nothing behind the
façade. There was no "there" there. All of the problems arise from
this obvious flaw.
President Obama is little more than a run-of-the-mill Hollywood extra hired
to play president of the United States. A brilliant marketing campaign
coupled with the perfect storm put him in office. The marketing campaign
was so good that it merits a case study for the Harvard Business School.
The "man with no past" and a Hollywood veneer turned out to be a perfect
candidate. "Sizzle" rather than substance was sold. Little was known about
Obama and his past, allowing David Axelrod to market the political
equivalent of a Rorschach blot.
Voters saw in Obama whatever they desired in a candidate. To some, Obama
was a breath of fresh air, a man of principles. To others he was an
outsider, not a crass politician. Others saw him as a chance to prove that
they were not racists. Still others saw him as the reincarnation of
Roosevelt or whomever else they admired.
Obama was a blank slate to be imagined or drawn upon by the voters. He was
their chameleon, and each voter could use his or her imagination to create
the ideal candidate. Not surprisingly, voters bought this product that
existed only in their minds. They elected Chauncey Gardiner. Unfortunately
, this fraud did not come with Peter Sellers' range or abilities.
A brilliant marketing strategy can make a first sale, but performance and
satisfaction are required for the second. Axelrod's skill in marketing had
no counterparty in production. No one seemed to be concerned about
delivering a product that actually worked.
Obama entered office unorganized and unstructured. Nothing in his
background suggested that he knew anything about management, organization,
or leadership. Nor did anyone see the need for bringing in talent with
these skills. As a result, the Hollywood mannequin was almost immediately
exposed as nothing but flair, hype, and hot air. The public had bought a
product that did not perform.
Marketing can do many things, but it cannot sell a product that people have
tried and rejected. That is Obama's reelection problem. At the risk of
being unsophisticated and abusing the concept of Occam's Razor, Obama's
reelection problem can be expressed in one simple sentence: "Now, too many
people know him."
Obama's only strength was Axelrod's ability to play on the imagination of
voters. That strength no longer exists. People now know the product and
have rejected it. They did not get even Chauncey Gardiner. Embarrassed and
angry, the public is stuck with Chance the Gardener.
The irony is that Mr. Obama has not changed. He is the same man who was
elected. His problem is not communicating, Republicans, George Bush,
tsunamis, or anything else. His problem is the man in the mirror. There is
no more there than an image.
Obama was all hype and no substance. That realization has dawned on voters,
resulting in horrendous polling. Richard Nixon was never liked, but he
was at least thought competent. Obama was liked but never competent. Now
Obama is living proof of the old adage that familiarity breeds contempt. He
is neither liked nor competent.
Even the hapless Jimmy Carter did not attain that status. | Z*****l
发帖数: 14069 | 2 re. sigh.
why so many people couldn't see it in 2008 when we clearly could.
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: By Monty Pelerin
: The Obama Problem is simple to explain but impossible to solve. The problem
: is Obama himself, and most people not named Barack or Michelle understand
: that.
: President Obama's political career is in free-fall. He will not be
: reelected. Many Democrats and media personalities now understand what
: appeared impossible even mere months ago.
: Mr. Obama burst onto the political scene as a relatively unknown wunderkind.
: He could read a mean teleprompter and did so with fanfare at the 2004
: Democrat Convention. He had good speechwriters, an intelligent and
| y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 3 duh, so many people still cound not see it even it is almost 2012.
【在 Z*****l 的大作中提到】
: re. sigh.
: why so many people couldn't see it in 2008 when we clearly could.
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