p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 1 1. 在打hu时， 假如我有一个ace,对手也有一个ace, 那flop 上出现一个ace
的概率的多大？ 两个ace 的概率呢？还有， 假如我们都有一个ａｃｅ， 不同的ｋ
ｉｃｋｅｒ,那一个ａｃｅ出现在ｆｌｏｐ上， 并且一个人hit到two pairs的概率是
多少。Say I got AK, he got A3, and the flops comes Ax3.
2. 假如我的牌不是对，say K7, 那么我其中一张牌ｆｌｏｐ a pair, 并且是top
pair的概率是多少？我们可以忽略 trips(0.7%) 和two pairs(3.4%) 的情况。k7 和kj
hit top pair的概率肯定是不同的， 因为 因为J 是 top pair的 几率肯定大于 7.
因为ace 肯定是ｔｏｐ ｐａｉｒ, 所以分析 ５－ｋ就好了。
3. About Suited connector or suited on gap. SC can flop a hand that can
beat over pair about 10%(flopped flush, str, trips , two pairs , quads).
Plus SC can flop flush draw about 10%, str draw about 10%. The question is
what percentage can SC hit a flop that I can go with. Assume that I need to
flop a TOP pair or an open ended str draw or flush draw to ship my stack in
, besides the 10% chance that I flop a monster. We can consider hands from
45s to QJs.
This is a such a tough situation to me recently when playing HU. Say
we are 15BB effective, opponent is a TAG and opened 3x on the button. His
range is (A2-ak, 55+). If I have 67s, should I call the 3x BB (2bb more to
call) raise trying to hit a flop or fold? Say we do not have any folding
equality by shoving preflop. And assume we will shove on the flop if we hit
top pair or flop a 8-9 outs draw.
thanks. | p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 2 first one, 3 cards dead, 2 aces left on deck, you need one ace otf, two
random cards, so it is about 12%. (47 2)*2/(49 3)
second one, it is fairly complex, so I am going to use estimates. you pair
one of your hole cards otf about 16% of the time. for K7o, when you hit a
King, let's assume it is good for top pair. for 7xx flop, about 21% chance
both xx <7, so, that gives you about 16%*21%=3.4%. so, it is 16%+3.4%=19.4%.
I am not sure how far away my result is from the correct number.
third one, against that Ax + pair range, and no fold equity, 67s is a fold.
I don't know how you can play profitably postflop with such a shallow stack.
ace
top
kj
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: 1. 在打hu时， 假如我有一个ace,对手也有一个ace, 那flop 上出现一个ace
: 的概率的多大？ 两个ace 的概率呢？还有， 假如我们都有一个ａｃｅ， 不同的ｋ
: ｉｃｋｅｒ,那一个ａｃｅ出现在ｆｌｏｐ上， 并且一个人hit到two pairs的概率是
: 多少。Say I got AK, he got A3, and the flops comes Ax3.
:
: 2. 假如我的牌不是对，say K7, 那么我其中一张牌ｆｌｏｐ a pair, 并且是top
: pair的概率是多少？我们可以忽略 trips(0.7%) 和two pairs(3.4%) 的情况。k7 和kj
: hit top pair的概率肯定是不同的， 因为 因为J 是 top pair的 几率肯定大于 7.
: 因为ace 肯定是ｔｏｐ ｐａｉｒ, 所以分析 ５－ｋ就好了。
: 3. About Suited connector or suited on gap. SC can flop a hand that can
| p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 3 Thanks a lot!
For the first one, what is odds that opponent hold an Ace or Aces when I
have Ace and there is an Ace on the flop?
Second one is actually quite helpful if we know all odds that many non
pair hand can flop top pair. Playing short stack HUSNG, you will face
tons of opponent opening every button, good or bad player, so deciding what
hand to defend is important. Getting in with top pair is huge +EV since you
can get action from second pair/bottom pair often.
Sorry, left school too long for picking up all the probability things.
So can you give me a formula to caculate the odds that the pair we hit is
top pair on the flop? Say you just mentioned that the odds of 7 is top pair
is 3.4. We can ignore the other hole card in our hand. Need data from 5-k.
Also, if villian open 100% on the button(many ppl do so now), what is
the odds that our top pair can be hehind on the flop? Say we hold k7, flop
comes 7 23,rainbow. What is odds that villian holds 88+, A7,22,33? Then
about Q7-57? of course, I need to know all the odds from 5-k, not only 7.
Also, we have to reevuate it post flop. When you hold K7, the hand strenth
on 7 4 2 rainbow flop is much stronger than 765 same suit flop.
Third one, middle SC plays really well in HU. Much better than Ace rag
post flop. What if our effective stack is 25BB, and villian open 3x on the
button, should we call 89s? what if 2.5BB raise and we have 56s?
%.
.
stack.
【在 p**********1 的大作中提到】
: first one, 3 cards dead, 2 aces left on deck, you need one ace otf, two
: random cards, so it is about 12%. (47 2)*2/(49 3)
: second one, it is fairly complex, so I am going to use estimates. you pair
: one of your hole cards otf about 16% of the time. for K7o, when you hit a
: King, let's assume it is good for top pair. for 7xx flop, about 21% chance
: both xx <7, so, that gives you about 16%*21%=3.4%. so, it is 16%+3.4%=19.4%.
: I am not sure how far away my result is from the correct number.
: third one, against that Ax + pair range, and no fold equity, 67s is a fold.
: I don't know how you can play profitably postflop with such a shallow stack.
:
| p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 4 first off, I am not quite sure about my results, so take it with a grain of
salt.
anyways, i am going to try. first one, we hold Ax on Axx flop, so, villain's
hole cards combo is (47 2)=1081, AA+Ax combo is 1+(2 1)*(45 1)=1+2*45=91,
therefore 91/1081=8.4%.
second one, to simplify and be complete, we include trip and quad (if top
pair is good, trip/quad definitely is good). we are dealt 7x, then the flop
combo is (50 3)=19600. to hit top pair and trip/quad, we need:
A: 777 flop, 1 combo
B: 77x flops, the combo is (3 2)*(47 1)=3*47=141. we don't need x<7, as trip
is stronger hand than pair.
C: 7xx flops, the combo is (3 1)*(47 2)=3*1081=3243. now we need both x<7.
the number of cards <7 is (7-2)*4=20. so, the odds is (20/47)*(19/46). so
the eligible combo is 3243*(20/47)*(19/46)=570. Or, you can use (3 1)*(20 2)
=570 directly.
therefore, total combo=1+141+570=712. Pr(TP+)=712/19600=3.63%. please note
that in step C, we exclude K7x flop as eligible if we hold K7. and this case
should have been excluded in my previous post as well, as K7x flop was
included in Kxx flop calc.
As to the odds villain has 88+, A7o etc, same as our holding Ax, villain has
Ax/AA. for instance, flop comes 723, then 6 combo for 88, so the odds=6/
1081=5.55%
third one, honestly I don't know.
just my 2cents.
non
what
you
【在 p****r 的大作中提到】
: Thanks a lot!
: For the first one, what is odds that opponent hold an Ace or Aces when I
: have Ace and there is an Ace on the flop?
: Second one is actually quite helpful if we know all odds that many non
: pair hand can flop top pair. Playing short stack HUSNG, you will face
: tons of opponent opening every button, good or bad player, so deciding what
: hand to defend is important. Getting in with top pair is huge +EV since you
: can get action from second pair/bottom pair often.
: Sorry, left school too long for picking up all the probability things.
: So can you give me a formula to caculate the odds that the pair we hit is
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