K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 1 2005 AO: Lost to Sharapova in 3rd round, the latter lost in SF.
2005 USO: Lost to Parmentier in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
2006 AO: Lost to Pin in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
2006 FO: Lost to Kuznetsova in 3rd round, the latter lost in final.
2006 WB: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter lost in SF.
2006 USO: Lost to Sharapova in 4th round, the latter won.
2007 AO: Lost to Hingis in 4th round, the latter lost in QF.
2007 FO: Lost to Bammer in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
2008 AO: Lost to Domachowska in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
2008 WB: Lost to Pavlyuchenkova in 2nd round, the latter lost in 3rd round.
2008 USO: Lost to Dementieva in 4th round, the latter lost in SF.
2009 FO: Lost to Sharapova in 4th round, the latter lost in QF.
2009 WB: Lost to Radwańska in 3rd round, the latter lost in QF.
2009 USO: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter won.
2010 AO: Lost to Serena in SF, the latter won.
2010 FO: Lost to Schiavone in 3rd round, the latter won.
2010 WB: Lost to Serena in QF, the latter won.
2010 USO: Lost to Bondarenko in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
2011 AO: Lost to Clijsters in final, the latter won.
2011 FO: Won.
2011 WB: Lost to Lisicki in 2nd round, the latter lost in SF.
李娜定律成功率：33%
对手战胜李娜后平均继续获胜场次：1.05 | s***i
发帖数: 6149 | | r*********x
发帖数: 3016 | 3 应该从09年开始算。09年才开始成为顶尖选手。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 2005 AO: Lost to Sharapova in 3rd round, the latter lost in SF.
: 2005 USO: Lost to Parmentier in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 AO: Lost to Pin in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 FO: Lost to Kuznetsova in 3rd round, the latter lost in final.
: 2006 WB: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter lost in SF.
: 2006 USO: Lost to Sharapova in 4th round, the latter won.
: 2007 AO: Lost to Hingis in 4th round, the latter lost in QF.
: 2007 FO: Lost to Bammer in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 AO: Lost to Domachowska in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 WB: Lost to Pavlyuchenkova in 2nd round, the latter lost in 3rd round.
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 09年后，李娜定律成功率60%, 对手平均继续获胜场次1.3.
可靠性略好于掷硬币。
【在 r*********x 的大作中提到】
: 应该从09年开始算。09年才开始成为顶尖选手。
| b**k
发帖数: 11850 | 5 你自己mark没包子吃的哦？
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 2005 AO: Lost to Sharapova in 3rd round, the latter lost in SF.
: 2005 USO: Lost to Parmentier in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 AO: Lost to Pin in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 FO: Lost to Kuznetsova in 3rd round, the latter lost in final.
: 2006 WB: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter lost in SF.
: 2006 USO: Lost to Sharapova in 4th round, the latter won.
: 2007 AO: Lost to Hingis in 4th round, the latter lost in QF.
: 2007 FO: Lost to Bammer in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 AO: Lost to Domachowska in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 WB: Lost to Pavlyuchenkova in 2nd round, the latter lost in 3rd round.
| n********r
发帖数: 4558 | 6 Haha
【在 b**k 的大作中提到】
: 你自己mark没包子吃的哦？
| b**k
发帖数: 11850 | 7 啊，对，你mark的
太好了~
【在 n********r 的大作中提到】
: Haha
| r*********x
发帖数: 3016 | 8 那就从09USOpen开始。命中率71%。考虑到128个参赛者，横跨3年12个大满贯。这几乎
就是神棍水平。lol
2009 USO: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter won.
2010 AO: Lost to Serena in SF, the latter won.
2010 FO: Lost to Schiavone in 3rd round, the latter won.
2010 WB: Lost to Serena in QF, the latter won.
2010 USO: Lost to Bondarenko in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
2011 AO: Lost to Clijsters in final, the latter won.
2011 FO: Won.
2011 WB: Lost to Lisicki in 2nd round, the latter lost in SF.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 09年后，李娜定律成功率60%, 对手平均继续获胜场次1.3.
: 可靠性略好于掷硬币。
| n*********e
发帖数: 25274 | | m*****r
发帖数: 3822 | 10 老娜09年以后水平上升了，三轮游的话平均命中是1/16，算总的33%也不错了
【在 r*********x 的大作中提到】
: 那就从09USOpen开始。命中率71%。考虑到128个参赛者，横跨3年12个大满贯。这几乎
: 就是神棍水平。lol
: 2009 USO: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter won.
: 2010 AO: Lost to Serena in SF, the latter won.
: 2010 FO: Lost to Schiavone in 3rd round, the latter won.
: 2010 WB: Lost to Serena in QF, the latter won.
: 2010 USO: Lost to Bondarenko in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2011 AO: Lost to Clijsters in final, the latter won.
: 2011 FO: Won.
: 2011 WB: Lost to Lisicki in 2nd round, the latter lost in SF.
| | | m*****r
发帖数: 3822 | 11 都是半决赛才略好于抛硬币，李娜算准章鱼帝了
数据帝应该把前十的都统计一下，我觉得这个数据还可以辅助判断谁是GOAT
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 09年后，李娜定律成功率60%, 对手平均继续获胜场次1.3.
: 可靠性略好于掷硬币。
| w*****0
发帖数: 3349 | 12 其实除了夏风让大家感到神奇之外，最近其他场次都是输给的小克和小威，都是两大高
手，所以也很难评价这个定律，
呵呵。要是这次司机爆冷夺冠，可能给这个定律再添上神奇一笔，可惜没有。 | n********r
发帖数: 4558 | 13 即便每次夺冠的都是超级高手，每次都被冠军击败也是小概率事件吧
每次大满贯共127人被击败，其中冠军击败6人，6/127=4.7%
09USO-10Wim，4.7%的四次方就是0.0005%
【在 w*****0 的大作中提到】
: 其实除了夏风让大家感到神奇之外，最近其他场次都是输给的小克和小威，都是两大高
: 手，所以也很难评价这个定律，
: 呵呵。要是这次司机爆冷夺冠，可能给这个定律再添上神奇一笔，可惜没有。
| K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 14 It's not computed like this.
For example, if you are runner up every single GS, the formula
is always valid, no matter what the draw is. The chance is
100%, not 0.0005%.
There is nothing 神奇 about that at all.
But, if you lose in 1st round every time, and the formula still
holds all the time, then you are really amazing, hehe.
【在 n********r 的大作中提到】
: 即便每次夺冠的都是超级高手，每次都被冠军击败也是小概率事件吧
: 每次大满贯共127人被击败，其中冠军击败6人，6/127=4.7%
: 09USO-10Wim，4.7%的四次方就是0.0005%
| n********r
发帖数: 4558 | 15 I agree that it is not ShenQi. But just curious what is the probability
that you would be defeated by the champion 4 gram slams in a row, being
4 runner-ups is one scenario for sure.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: It's not computed like this.
: For example, if you are runner up every single GS, the formula
: is always valid, no matter what the draw is. The chance is
: 100%, not 0.0005%.
: There is nothing 神奇 about that at all.
: But, if you lose in 1st round every time, and the formula still
: holds all the time, then you are really amazing, hehe.
| l******n
发帖数: 641 | 16 if u only count things after 2010,
over 75%.
so u really believe it's physical rule that lasts forever?
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 2005 AO: Lost to Sharapova in 3rd round, the latter lost in SF.
: 2005 USO: Lost to Parmentier in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 AO: Lost to Pin in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 FO: Lost to Kuznetsova in 3rd round, the latter lost in final.
: 2006 WB: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter lost in SF.
: 2006 USO: Lost to Sharapova in 4th round, the latter won.
: 2007 AO: Lost to Hingis in 4th round, the latter lost in QF.
: 2007 FO: Lost to Bammer in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 AO: Lost to Domachowska in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 WB: Lost to Pavlyuchenkova in 2nd round, the latter lost in 3rd round.
| z*********n
发帖数: 94654 | 17 得李娜者得天下
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: if u only count things after 2010,
: over 75%.
: so u really believe it's physical rule that lasts forever?
| l******n
发帖数: 641 | 18 yes, if the rule last 3 years,
that's good enough to keep li na in top 5.
【在 z*********n 的大作中提到】
: 得李娜者得天下
| l******n
发帖数: 641 | 19 60% is like AK vs 23,
even AA vs 22 is only 80%.
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 09年后，李娜定律成功率60%, 对手平均继续获胜场次1.3.
: 可靠性略好于掷硬币。
| z*********n
发帖数: 94654 | 20 其实这么看，对于高手，此定律成功率更高
因为高手咋都要进八强，胜八强的夺冠几率本来就大
算算胜豆子者的夺冠概率？ lol
【在 l******n 的大作中提到】
: 60% is like AK vs 23,
: even AA vs 22 is only 80%.
| | | m*****r
发帖数: 3822 | 21 决赛以外胜豆者还真不行。。。
【在 z*********n 的大作中提到】
: 其实这么看，对于高手，此定律成功率更高
: 因为高手咋都要进八强，胜八强的夺冠几率本来就大
: 算算胜豆子者的夺冠概率？ lol
| n********r
发帖数: 4558 | 22 仔细想了一下，老肯的思路还是对的，试算算看
假设止步某轮的几率为P(round)，round=1,2,3,4,5,6,7
每轮被冠军击败的几率是1/2^(7-round)
比如说止步第一轮的64个人中，有幸被冠军击败的几率是1/64
那么总的被冠军击败的几率P应该是Sum_round P(round)*1/2^(7-round)
不考虑球员水平，P(round)=1/2^(round)，结果是7/128=4.7%
假设总是进入QF，P(5)=1，P(else)=0，结果是1/4=25%
假设李娜从09USO-10Wimbly水平稳定进入QF，那么连着4次被冠军击败的几率为
1/4的4次方0.4%。
不知道有没有算错。
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: It's not computed like this.
: For example, if you are runner up every single GS, the formula
: is always valid, no matter what the draw is. The chance is
: 100%, not 0.0005%.
: There is nothing 神奇 about that at all.
: But, if you lose in 1st round every time, and the formula still
: holds all the time, then you are really amazing, hehe.
| A*****a
发帖数: 52743 | 23 说明输球主要输给水平相当的选手吧
【在 K****D 的大作中提到】
: 2005 AO: Lost to Sharapova in 3rd round, the latter lost in SF.
: 2005 USO: Lost to Parmentier in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 AO: Lost to Pin in 1st round, the latter lost in 2nd round.
: 2006 FO: Lost to Kuznetsova in 3rd round, the latter lost in final.
: 2006 WB: Lost to Clijsters in QF, the latter lost in SF.
: 2006 USO: Lost to Sharapova in 4th round, the latter won.
: 2007 AO: Lost to Hingis in 4th round, the latter lost in QF.
: 2007 FO: Lost to Bammer in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 AO: Lost to Domachowska in 3rd round, the latter lost in 4th round.
: 2008 WB: Lost to Pavlyuchenkova in 2nd round, the latter lost in 3rd round.
| A********9
发帖数: 375 | |
|
