d*****1
发帖数: 407 | 1 It appears that the economic recovery has slowed. And since this economic
cycle is so different from all the other cycles, it happened in a much fast
pace than the cycles before. We are at least at phase II of the cycle. Delta
variant and geopolitical issue have put headwind on the economic growth for
sure. One may argue that the FED might be right on the transitory nature of
the inflation. If so, it will certainly delay the tapering, and will have
profound ramification of what is going to happen next.
Questions are why investors rushing to Bond market? What will happen to the
recent bull run? What will happen to stocks/commodity? And what will happen
to Crypto?
I don't believe the recent bond run is just technical. Maybe smart money
knows something we don't know. They might see the risks we don't see. That
is why they are so convinced to take essentially negative yield.
It is certainly that the stock market will see at least a correction not a
full blown meltdown. The valuation is so high and growth is not supporting
such high valuation. Even inflation is transitory, I don't think the stock
can stay where it is right now. The only hope is FED continue printing,
which most likely it will. In that case, we probably will see a stagnation,
which means that the equity market will hover around its highs.
I am not so sure about the commodity market. Don't know whether the shortage
of everything will continue drive up the price. I don't know whether Gold
can follow the conventional wisdom as hedge either.
And finally the only winner I can think of is crypto. As a new asset class,
it hasn't been tested as a hedge to the other asset class yet. But I see
tremendous tail wind. There are tremendous amount of M1/M2 money supply. I
won't be surprised an increasing portion of it will flow into Crypto.
Overall, I am avoiding Bond, neutral on commodity, neutral to negative bias
on stock and bullish on Crypto. | t**********i
发帖数: 37 | 2 没什么关系，就算连续几年的通胀在历史长河里也是微不足道的，也是transitory |
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