c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 1 1/3的石油期货在USO
有意思啊有意思
A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing—especially in the oil market.
Individual investors conditioned by years of (mostly) being rewarded for
buying the dips will become acquainted with that proverb as they absorb
losses in a popular exchange-traded fund that allowed them to buy virtual
barrels of crude. This time there could be collateral damage.
The travails of the United States Oil Fund, USO -25.07% ticker USO, in some
ways mirror the collapse of inverse volatility note XIV two years ago, but
with two key differences: Traders who sold XIV in time had made a fortune,
and the repercussions of its 95% collapse were limited to an arcane corner
of financial markets.
USO, by contrast, is a perennial money-loser that still somehow controls a
whopping 30% of the June benchmark U.S. crude futures contract, according to
Goldman Sachs. On Monday, the expiring May contract settled at negative $37
as traders were forced to pay up so that they wouldn’t have to take
delivery of actual crude in May.
Storage is nearly full following a crash in demand. Cash still has poured
into the fund recently despite that fact. USO already had rolled its
positions out of the May contract days ago, but the June contract represents
a lot more oil and when it expires there will be even less storage left at
the delivery point of Cushing, Okla.
It is unclear how exchange operators CME Group or Intercontinental Exchange
will react if June futures, which plunged by as much as 37% on Tuesday
morning, also go negative. Passive holders of an ETF can’t be asked for
collateral. The fund could be liquidated to forestall such a scenario, but
that would, in and of itself, roil the futures market. Neither CME nor ICE
responded immediately to requests for comment.
The good news for retail speculators is that they can’t lose more than 100%
of their money, unless they bought futures directly. Incredibly, despite a
sharp drop in its price, USO was trading at a big premium to net asset value
Tuesday morning as the fund’s operator, USCF—motto “Invest in What’s
Real”—stopped allowing new shares to be created. A USCF spokeswoman said
she couldn’t comment until after Tuesday’s market close.
Unlike for gold ETFs such as GLD, owning and storing crude is prohibitively
expensive. A product like USO not only affordably captures the upside in oil
but also earns a roll yield—at least in theory. Over most of its history,
people have preferred to have physical possession of an industrial commodity
like crude, and paid a bit for the privilege. Financial types could oblige
them by selling them crude and buying the promise of a slightly cheaper
barrel in the futures market, earning money as the two prices converged. USO
just owned the futures, taking a price risk, but so much money flowed into
futures contracts in the past 15 or so years that the roll yield was
frequently negative. Over the past two years a holder of USO lost about 78%.
Energy traders who chuckled at USO’s strange popularity aren’t laughing
anymore as its problems have suddenly become their problem too. | n*******y
发帖数: 3337 | 2 是的,USO有问题,快2点油加速跌到了$6,差点重现昨天,2点10分左右,USO被交易所停了
20多分钟,油马上反弹到$14+ | h*****7
发帖数: 6781 | 3 谢谢分享
今天 USCF 网站都上不去了，有不少人在监测gap有多大
增发会对roll有影响，不增发就套傻子，那也没啥，一个愿打一个愿挨 | c*********9
发帖数: 229 | 4 ETF 在市场走高的时候大家不会觉得有问题，这次市场下跌挤兑
的时候大家才认识到严重性。
some
【在 c******n 的大作中提到】
: 1/3的石油期货在USO
: 有意思啊有意思
: A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing—especially in the oil market.
: Individual investors conditioned by years of (mostly) being rewarded for
: buying the dips will become acquainted with that proverb as they absorb
: losses in a popular exchange-traded fund that allowed them to buy virtual
: barrels of crude. This time there could be collateral damage.
: The travails of the United States Oil Fund, USO -25.07% ticker USO, in some
: ways mirror the collapse of inverse volatility note XIV two years ago, but
: with two key differences: Traders who sold XIV in time had made a fortune,
| l******r
发帖数: 1642 | 5 早就有人指出来这些etf 和公司债是下一轮金融危机的trigger了
【在 c*********9 的大作中提到】
: ETF 在市场走高的时候大家不会觉得有问题，这次市场下跌挤兑
: 的时候大家才认识到严重性。
:
: some
| c******n
发帖数: 5697 | 6 5月和6月期货价格差那么大就是割USO的肉
因为USO不可能delivery只能roll over，卖5月买6月，USO就只能被狠狠宰 | H******1
发帖数: 1 | 7 现在uso有6,7,8月的合约，要清仓估计没有那么容易。而且，现在这个油价，空头再砍
下去没有什么油水，但是风险很高，不像是花街会做的买卖。 | w*****c
发帖数: 7276 | | i********y
发帖数: 6 | | B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 10 那里说USO要被清仓了？在股板散布流言，涉及钱，是很不道德的。 | d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 11 你错了，cme今天开始可以卖负价option了。所以好戏在后面
【在 H******1 的大作中提到】
: 现在uso有6,7,8月的合约，要清仓估计没有那么容易。而且，现在这个油价，空头再砍
: 下去没有什么油水，但是风险很高，不像是花街会做的买卖。
| d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 12 考虑到市面上这么多油，空头一点风险都没有
【在 d********f 的大作中提到】
: 你错了，cme今天开始可以卖负价option了。所以好戏在后面
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