f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 1 相比谷歌赚15一股，那么tesla股价只值，1450/15*2=193 |
l*i
发帖数: 5732 | 2 pe 不同啊。特斯拉预计高增长
【在 f*****m 的大作中提到】
: 相比谷歌赚15一股，那么tesla股价只值，1450/15*2=193
|
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 3 look at the market cap (a cake)
NOT price per share (how many pieces you want to cut your cake) |
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 4 GOOG: market cap: 996B
996B/15 X 2 = 132B
Tesla today's market cap: 134B |
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 5 I did NOT consider growth rate at all.
If you consider growth rate, then TESLA should be >134B
200B is reasonable. |
c*******7
发帖数: 2329 | 6 不错的算法
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: GOOG: market cap: 996B
: 996B/15 X 2 = 132B
: Tesla today's market cap: 134B
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 7 That’s not correct. $15 is per share earning. In that case I can divide 1
Google share to 2 Google shares and the earning per share will be $7.5, the.
You can
plug $7.5 into your formula. See how stupid it is lol. Vice versa, I can
combine 2 Google shares into one and you can plug in $30 in that formula lol
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: GOOG: market cap: 996B
: 996B/15 X 2 = 132B
: Tesla today's market cap: 134B
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 8 顶起来
the.
lol
【在 f*****m 的大作中提到】
: That’s not correct. $15 is per share earning. In that case I can divide 1
: Google share to 2 Google shares and the earning per share will be $7.5, the.
: You can
: plug $7.5 into your formula. See how stupid it is lol. Vice versa, I can
: combine 2 Google shares into one and you can plug in $30 in that formula lol
|
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 9 You did not get my point.
1. EPS does not matter, because a company can simply change the number of
shares outstanding to arbitrarily increase or decrease EPS by doing a split
or reverse split.
2. In your counterargument, you change the number of shares outstanding for
GOOG, then Tesla can also change the share, right?
3. The point is that market cap matters, not EPS.
4. Furthermore, P/E ratio matters, which is calculated as market cap/total
net income or equivalently, stock price per share/EPS.
5. In addition, TTM P/E ratio does not matter; forward P/E ratio matters.
Why? because according to the semi-strong EMH, stock price should reflect
historical and public information instantly. So future EPS, or future growth
rate of a company's earnings matters.
Hope this helps. |
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 10 This is also correct.
you are actually referring to the forward pe, NOT TTM pe
【在 l*i 的大作中提到】
: pe 不同啊。特斯拉预计高增长
|
|
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 11 Stock price/ EPS = PE
Suppose google and tesla have the same PE
1450/15=Tesla price /2 = PE*4(since it’s Q4 EPS)
It gives PE of 24 and Tesla price of $193
Even if you use amazon as the baseline
2040/6.5=Tesla price/2 =PE*4
It gives PE of 78 and Tesla price $627
It means Tesla maximum price can only be $627
split
for
total
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: You did not get my point.
: 1. EPS does not matter, because a company can simply change the number of
: shares outstanding to arbitrarily increase or decrease EPS by doing a split
: or reverse split.
: 2. In your counterargument, you change the number of shares outstanding for
: GOOG, then Tesla can also change the share, right?
: 3. The point is that market cap matters, not EPS.
: 4. Furthermore, P/E ratio matters, which is calculated as market cap/total
: net income or equivalently, stock price per share/EPS.
: 5. In addition, TTM P/E ratio does not matter; forward P/E ratio matters.
|
s*******n
发帖数: 40 | 12 这种算法我是服了，你都不把股数考虑进去？
tesla现在值134B就是因为股价太高了，如果回到200刀，就不值134B了，因为tesla的
股数比较少。 134B=股价*股数。
你这种算法是假设两个公司股数相同的前提才成立，但事实并不是这样。
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: GOOG: market cap: 996B
: 996B/15 X 2 = 132B
: Tesla today's market cap: 134B
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 13 但是eps已经考虑过股数了，earning per share，是整个公司的盈利除以股数，类似的
股价也是考虑过股数的，是整个公司的市值除以股数，所以两个相除股数自然不用考
虑。
两个公司的股价不需要相同 也是一样的。因为同一家公司 市值/股数=股价 和 eps=
earnings/股数 的股数是相同的
【在 s*******n 的大作中提到】
: 这种算法我是服了，你都不把股数考虑进去？
: tesla现在值134B就是因为股价太高了，如果回到200刀，就不值134B了，因为tesla的
: 股数比较少。 134B=股价*股数。
: 你这种算法是假设两个公司股数相同的前提才成立，但事实并不是这样。
|
K**r
发帖数: 2193 | 14 Lol
我觉得这些人
都没搞清楚这里面这些关系怎么算的 也在天天喊着upupup。
真是凭运气挣来的钱早晚要凭实力亏出去。
【在 f*****m 的大作中提到】
: 但是eps已经考虑过股数了，earning per share，是整个公司的盈利除以股数，类似的
: 股价也是考虑过股数的，是整个公司的市值除以股数，所以两个相除股数自然不用考
: 虑。
: 两个公司的股价不需要相同 也是一样的。因为同一家公司 市值/股数=股价 和 eps=
: earnings/股数 的股数是相同的
|
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 15 单看EPS 没有用
单看每股的股价也没有用
P/E管用
但是静态的P/E 没有 Forward P/E 管用
另外，主要看成长性 |
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 16 是啊
我做的也不对
我不是顺着楼主的竿子往上爬嘛
s
我回帖说的很清楚了
Forward P/E matters
【在 K**r 的大作中提到】
: Lol
: 我觉得这些人
: 都没搞清楚这里面这些关系怎么算的 也在天天喊着upupup。
: 真是凭运气挣来的钱早晚要凭实力亏出去。
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 17 你这概念水平连给我提鞋都不配。
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: 单看EPS 没有用
: 单看每股的股价也没有用
: P/E管用
: 但是静态的P/E 没有 Forward P/E 管用
: 另外，主要看成长性
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 18 那你说forward pe多少合适
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: 单看EPS 没有用
: 单看每股的股价也没有用
: P/E管用
: 但是静态的P/E 没有 Forward P/E 管用
: 另外，主要看成长性
|
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 19 Calm down, please.
Why are you so fussy?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Historically speaking, the US stock market has a forward P/E ratio 16-18.
For a specific company, you need to look at the industry it belongs to.
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
For tesla, EPS in 2020 is estimated to be 7.92 and 2021 to be 15.03. For a
tech firm, the average forward PE is about 84.
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
Considering Tesla is growing rapidly, 100X is reasonable.
OK, you do the calculations. |
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 20 Current PE for Tesla is 750( stock price) / (2.05(eps for one quarter) * 4)
= 91 way higher
than your average.
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: Calm down, please.
: Why are you so fussy?
: ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
: Historically speaking, the US stock market has a forward P/E ratio 16-18.
: For a specific company, you need to look at the industry it belongs to.
: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/
: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
: For tesla, EPS in 2020 is estimated to be 7.92 and 2021 to be 15.03. For a
: tech firm, the average forward PE is about 84.
: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
|
|
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 21
)
【在 f*****m 的大作中提到】
: Current PE for Tesla is 750( stock price) / (2.05(eps for one quarter) * 4)
: = 91 way higher
: than your average.
|
K**r
发帖数: 2193 | 22 你只看现在
他们的意思是特斯拉以后能有$15一股的盈利
因为特斯拉在高速增长中
再配上科技公司100倍的估值
股价应该$1500朝上
就这，还算保守的了。
【在 f*****m 的大作中提到】
:
: )
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 23 To me, It’s has better chance to bet that Google will have $30 eps in the
future
lol
【在 K**r 的大作中提到】
: 你只看现在
: 他们的意思是特斯拉以后能有$15一股的盈利
: 因为特斯拉在高速增长中
: 再配上科技公司100倍的估值
: 股价应该$1500朝上
: 就这，还算保守的了。
|
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 24 First, 91 is NOT a way higher than 84. As I said, look at industry average
PE, NOT all market average PE.
Second, PEG is another better ratio.
Third, there are many other better ways to value a stock.
Fourth, do I deserve a "thank you"? |
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 25 If you could have learn what’s PE and how to calculate PE first, I can give
a thank-you for not being too ignorant and arrogant.
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: Calm down, please.
: Why are you so fussy?
: ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
: Historically speaking, the US stock market has a forward P/E ratio 16-18.
: For a specific company, you need to look at the industry it belongs to.
: http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/
: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
: For tesla, EPS in 2020 is estimated to be 7.92 and 2021 to be 15.03. For a
: tech firm, the average forward PE is about 84.
: http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pedata.html
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 26 91 PE means you have to wait for 91 years in order to get your invest back
by company earning. How many years do you have in your life lol.
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: First, 91 is NOT a way higher than 84. As I said, look at industry average
: PE, NOT all market average PE.
: Second, PEG is another better ratio.
: Third, there are many other better ways to value a stock.
: Fourth, do I deserve a "thank you"?
|
l******o
发帖数: 1 | 27 I have some time; OK, let me teach you.
First, do a google search and find out: basic EPS and diluted EPS； GAAP EPS
and non-GAAP EPS.
Second, the use of 2.05 X 4 as an annual EPS is OK, but it is really
misleading. At least you ignore firm operation seasonality. Plus, you ignore
growth.
Third, your understanding of 91 P/E of 91 years to get money back
is totally wrong. Why is it wrong? After you say thank you, I will then
teach you.
Fourth, be humble and be grateful.
My last post to you. Bye bye.
give
【在 f*****m 的大作中提到】
: If you could have learn what’s PE and how to calculate PE first, I can give
: a thank-you for not being too ignorant and arrogant.
|
f*****m
发帖数: 309 | 28 Diluted Eps and EPS are close . It’s okay to use that to estimate. What’s
your eps then?
2.05 is the best eps I can get from Tesla. Do you mean I should take into
account the negative eps too? Lol
EPS
ignore
【在 l******o 的大作中提到】
: I have some time; OK, let me teach you.
: First, do a google search and find out: basic EPS and diluted EPS； GAAP EPS
: and non-GAAP EPS.
: Second, the use of 2.05 X 4 as an annual EPS is OK, but it is really
: misleading. At least you ignore firm operation seasonality. Plus, you ignore
: growth.
: Third, your understanding of 91 P/E of 91 years to get money back
: is totally wrong. Why is it wrong? After you say thank you, I will then
: teach you.
: Fourth, be humble and be grateful.
|
