V***6
发帖数: 333 | 1 We forecast 3Q sales of $6.30bn and adjusted EBITDA of $762mn for TSLA,
following a solid 2Q. Competition from OE incumbents and new EV names have
been part of a popular bear thesis on TSLA. The progress from competitors,
however, has been behind the curve.
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Investment Summary
We forecast 3Q sales of $6.30bn and adjusted EBITDA of $762mn for TSLA,
following a solid 2Q (Leverage below 2.5x Provides Cushion, 2H Execution
Needed for Further Upside, July 25, 2019).
Automotive margins and FCF will be focal points in 3Q, in our view. The
expectation appears to have increased into the print with the recent stock
move (at a six-month high), and automotive margins (w/ credits) below ~20%
could be viewed as below expectation. We are generally comfortable with the
margin's trajectory, as we have seen steady unit cost improvement through
recent quarters excluding credits.
3Q delivery of 97k was ahead of our 94k estimate, as Model S/X primarily
drives the upside compared to our expectation (15.5k). The sequential ramp
on M3 is on pace, with strength in certain European markets (UK, Netherlands
) and a solid US market.
Our Overweight rating on TSLA 2025s at current levels ($91/7.2% YTW)
reflects our expectation of a strong balance sheet ($5bn in cash balance)
into 2020, a more visible path to becoming a self-sustaining automotive
business in the medium term and our view that TSLA has a clear lead in the
evolving EV landscape (see below) in the next 18 months. We believe the
bonds should trade close to single B level ($100.7/5.8% YTW) over time
pending progress on delivering sustainable margins/FCF. | H******1
发帖数: 1 | |
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