a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 1 中国如果甩个5000亿的国债出来，肯定够他们喝一壶的。
The Bond Market Just Sent a Disturbing Message
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-05-08/the-bond-market-just-
sent-a-disturbing-message
Global markets got a glimpse of the unthinkable Wednesday when the U.S. held
a key bond auction. The $27 billion sale of 10-year notes – the world’s
benchmark securities – didn’t go well at all. It wasn’t a failure; that
would have triggered no less than an Armageddon-type event on par with the
financial crisis. But the poor demand sure sparked a lot of questions,
including whether this was a sign that investors finally had enough of the
government’s profligate spending and borrowing.
Investors submitted bids for 2.17 times the amount offered by the Treasury
Department, the lowest so-called bid-to-cover ratio since March 2009,
hammering home the notion that demand for U.S. bonds isn’t limitless with
the government on track to borrow $1 trillion to finance a budget deficit by
the same amount. Total U.S. debt is now above $22 trillion, up from less
than $10 trillion before the financial crisis. To be sure, it’s too early
to say the bond vigilantes have returned, but it’s notable that bid-to-
cover ratios and international participation at the auctions has been
declining for a few years now. Foreign holders own about 40 percent of the
marketable U.S. debt outstanding, down from more than 50 percent pre-crisis.
“I wish the buyers could talk to see what it was about this yield that was
so unattractive,” Bleakley Financial Group chief investment officer Peter
Boockvar wrote in a note to clients. Maybe it was because yields near the
lowest since late 2017 “just wasn’t attractive. Maybe buyers aren’t as
sanguine as many others that inflation is so benign. Maybe it’s in response
to exploding U.S. debts and deficits. Maybe it’s because the cost of
hedging on the part of overseas investors has made buying longer-term U.S.
Treasuries on a hedged basis just not worth it.
Time to Worry?
Demand at the Treasury's auction of 10-year notes collapses to lowest since
2009
Source: Bloomberg
Nothing scares big investors more than the notion that the U.S. could hold a
bond auction and nobody showed up. After all, Treasuries are the world’s
safest investment, backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. But on
Wednesday, investors sent a message to the Treasury Department that past isn
’t prologue when it comes to demand for U.S. debt.
STICKING CLOSE TO HOME
Before ringing the alarm bell too loudly, there’s plenty of evidence that
the U.S. is still a desirable place to invest due to its stable political
system (that’s no joke) and adherence to the rule of law. At 61.7%, the
dollar’s share of global currency reserves is by far the biggest, tripling
the euro’s 20.7% share, according to the International Monetary Fund. But
that’s not to say things aren’t changing. The dollar’s share is down from
72.7% in the early 2000s, and there’s evidence that investors are more
inclined to invest in their home countries. Global foreign direct investment
has fallen to the lowest level since 2009, dropping 19 percent last year,
according to management consulting firm A.T. Kearney’s newly released
Foreign Direct Investment Confidence Index, which is based on its annual
survey of 500 senior executives. "Investors perceive that risks are rising
in developed markets," according to the report. “Although many developed
markets have more transparent governance – a metric highly valued by
investors – rising risks, geopolitical and economic alike, do cast some
immediate concerns in the short-term horizon.” The U.S. dominated the index
for the seventh year in a row, followed by Germany and Canada, according to
Bloomberg News’s Marie Patino. China is the only developing country that
makes it to the top 10, and 22 out of the top 25 most trusted countries are
developed countries.
Steady Slide
The dollar's share of global FX reserves has shrunk since Trump's election
victory
Source: IMF, Bloomberg
IS A TRADE DEAL PRICED IN?
U.S. stocks managed a small gain on Wednesday after starting the week with
their biggest two-day selloff of the year as the S&P 500 Index slid more
than 2 percent. With the U.S. and China scheduled for trade talks Thursday
and Friday, traders spent much of the day trying to work out whether a deal
is priced in to stocks. RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist Tom
Porcelli thinks he has the answer. “This is a good time to remind folks
that the tariff tantrums have significantly suppressed equity market
performance,” Porcelli wrote in a note to clients. He claims the S&P 500’s
15% year-to-date gain is deceiving and is really more a function of a
rebound from the steep plunge at the end of last year. “The reality is that
despite significant corporate tax relief that kicked in last year – and
boosted the bottom line meaningfully – in the wake of the trade skirmish
with China that began in late January of last year, the S&P 500 has returned
through the May 7 close a grand total of 1.6%,” Porcelli wrote. “If we
strip out inflation, broad equities are down about 1% in that span. By that
token, a ‘done deal’ on trade doesn’t seem to be priced in.” So, given
the painful selloff in stocks Monday and Tuesday, here’s something for the
bulls: The spread between the S&P 500’s earnings yield – a proxy for how
much equities “pay” shareholders – and the 10-year Treasury yield is
currently 2.9 percentage points, according to Bloomberg News’s Sarah
Ponczek. (The wider it is, the cheaper stocks are.) Strip out the last five
months, when stocks fluctuated wildly, and the relative payout of stocks
over bonds is the highest since 2016.
Trade Pressure
Despite wild gyrations, stocks are little changed since the start of the
trade war
Source: Bloomberg
THE QUIET MARKET
They say it’s always the quite ones you have to worry about. And in the
global markets, currencies are almost mute. While measures of volatility in
stocks – and even interest rates - has jumped, those for currencies are
oddly subdued. The JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index was at 7.01 on
Wednesday, down from 9.36 in early January. Put another way, the gauge has
rarely been lower since before the financial crisis. Reasons for why this is
include structural changes that have made the currency market more about
flash volatility events due to specific gaps in liquidity, according to
Bloomberg News’s Liz Capo McCormick. Positioning dynamics and recent
idiosyncratic forces (aside from Trump’s rhetoric) are also capping
fluctuations, she adds. “What the market tends to experience more now is
not a rise when it happens in all assets but instead flash-crash episodes,”
Steve Barrow, head of currency strategy at Standard Bank, told Bloomberg
News. “Currencies that are moving, such as those in emerging markets, are
due to specific domestic factors.” The thing to know here is that more than
$5 trillion of currencies trade each day, making it the deepest, most
liquid market in the world. So the fact that the market is in a state of
relative calm should be a reassuring signal, and that the U.S. and China
will ultimately come to a trade deal without causing too much more damage to
the global economy.
Becalmed Market
Volatility in the currency markets has rarely been lower
Source: Bloomberg
TIGHT SUPPLIES
President Donald Trump is known for lobbing tweets toward OPEC, imploring
the cartel to open the spigots and boost supply in order to lower the price
of oil. Perhaps a better target might be U.S. producers, though that might
not make good political sense. West Texas Intermediate crude prices rose the
most in more than two weeks on Wednesday, gaining as much as 1.58 percent
to $62.37 a barrel as a surprise drop in U.S. supplies added to evidence of
a tightening global market. The Energy Information Administration said
domestic crude inventories shrank by almost 4 million barrels last week,
defying expectations for an increase, according to Bloomberg News’s Alex
Nussbaum. The decline in oil stockpiles was the first in the U.S. in three
weeks, and came alongside a drop in gasoline and distillate supplies that
could generate more demand for crude going forward. But with imports from
Saudi Arabia slipping to an all-time low as OPEC and its allies continued to
restrict output, the pressure is on oil prices to move higher.
Shrinking Supplies
Oil rises from its lowest since March as domestic supplies tighten
Source: Bloomberg
TEA LEAVES
One of the big surprises this year is how key global economic data has done
better than expected. Both the U.S. and euro zone gross domestic product
reports for the first quarter exceeded expectations, and Bloomberg Economics
says there’s a good chance that the U.K. does as well when its numbers are
reported Thursday despite an escalating Brexit crisis that’s divided
Parliament and the government. Britain’s GDP rose 0.2 percent in February
after a 0.5 percent jump in January. That means the economy will expand 0.5
percent in the first quarter if GDP was unchanged in March, Bloomberg
Economics figures. That’s also the median estimate of economists surveyed
by Bloomberg News. The data may provide a small boost to U.K. Prime Minister
Theresa May as she awaits a final decision on the length of the delay to
Brexit. European Council President Donald Tusk has rejected her request for
a brief postponement and a longer period risks a backlash that could further
destabilize the U.K., both politically and economically, Bloomberg
Economics says.
DON’T MISS
Trade Talks and the Two Key Market Implications: Komal Sri-Kumar
A U.S.-China Trade Deal Doesn't Matter Anymore: Michael Schuman
‘Smart Beta’ Might Not Be Very Smart After All: Noah Smith
Value Investing Is Back in China, Thanks to Trump: Shuli Ren
A Tale of Two Central Banks With the Same Problem: Daniel Moss | a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 2 甩完了形势不对可以再收回来，总之，拿个棍子捅捅Trump的屁股再说。 | x****a
发帖数: 1041 | | b**********7
发帖数: 1 | | x******h
发帖数: 13678 | 5
本子和中东
【在 x****a 的大作中提到】
: 国债没人买，为啥收益率一直降呢？
| F**Y
发帖数: 437 | 6 我看你关于石油的文章还有些水平，怎么一涉及到川普和土共，你就让意识形态的猪油
糊了脑子？5000亿美元，不是500万美元，谁一下拿得出这么多钱来接盘？日本增持最
多的一年也就1000亿。你卖第一个1000亿的时候可能还能卖出现价，等你卖最后一个
1000亿时，美债市场都临时垮掉了，说不定到手就500亿美元。你这样做，只能短时打
击美债，但付出起码千亿美元的代价，谁会干这种傻事？40万亿的美债市场，你就算把
手里1万亿全部抛玩，又能掀起多大的波澜？ | G*******h
发帖数: 4091 | 7 抛美债打击美国属于杀敌两百自损一千的做法，美债还可以吃利息，换成美元砸手里了
等着贬值吗？
当然如果手头急需大笔美元，那就没办法。 | m*****1
发帖数: 384 | 8 干银行的最怕挤兑！
借债的最怕别人说他不还债！
【在 F**Y 的大作中提到】
: 我看你关于石油的文章还有些水平，怎么一涉及到川普和土共，你就让意识形态的猪油
: 糊了脑子？5000亿美元，不是500万美元，谁一下拿得出这么多钱来接盘？日本增持最
: 多的一年也就1000亿。你卖第一个1000亿的时候可能还能卖出现价，等你卖最后一个
: 1000亿时，美债市场都临时垮掉了，说不定到手就500亿美元。你这样做，只能短时打
: 击美债，但付出起码千亿美元的代价，谁会干这种傻事？40万亿的美债市场，你就算把
: 手里1万亿全部抛玩，又能掀起多大的波澜？
| d*****g
发帖数: 978 | 9 如果从当年日本和美国贸易战的思路，抛售美元美债应该是正确的选择，但目的并不是
引起巨大的市场波动，而是慢慢的减持，换成其他优质资产，减少对美元的依赖，一旦
美元汇率大幅贬值，持有这些东西会损失惨重 | v********r
发帖数: 1 | 10 美国国债利率怎么定的？
卖不动的话是不是要加息，等于通货膨胀？ | f*******t
发帖数: 7549 | 11 能跟美债比的其它优质资产有哪些？
【在 d*****g 的大作中提到】
: 如果从当年日本和美国贸易战的思路，抛售美元美债应该是正确的选择，但目的并不是
: 引起巨大的市场波动，而是慢慢的减持，换成其他优质资产，减少对美元的依赖，一旦
: 美元汇率大幅贬值，持有这些东西会损失惨重
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