s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 1 Operating income (EBIT) 217,822.74
Net Income 82,661.80
EPS 0.49
============
TSLA Q3E
Automotive sales 6,010,680.00
Automotive leasing 286,158.00
Total automotive revenues 6,296,838.00
Development services and other 304,281.00
Energy generation and storage 317,505.00
Total revenues 6,918,624.00
% of auto revenues 0.91
% of development service and other 0.04
% of energy generation and storage 0.05
Revenue growth rate 132%
Automotive sales 4,864,003.26
Automotive leasing 136,915.00
Total automotive cost of revenues 5,000,918.26
Development services and other 367,401.00
Energy generation and storage 237,288.00
Total cost of revenues 5,605,607.26
Gross profit 1,313,016.74
Gross profit margin for the whole firm 0.15
Gross profit margin for auto segment 0.21
R&D 376,612.50
R&D margin 0.05
SG&A 718,581.50
SG&A margin 0.10
Restructuring and other -
Total operating expenses 1,095,194.00
Operating income (EBIT) 217,822.74
Operating margin 0.03
Interest income 5,064.00
Interest expense (163,582.00)
Other income, net 50,911.00
Income (loss) before income taxes (EBT) 110,215.74
Provision for income taxes 27,553.93
Income (loss) before noncontrolling items 82,661.80
Net loss attributable to noncontrolling -
Net Income 82,661.80
EPS, diluted 0.49
Weighted average shares used in computing EPS, diluted 169,997.00 | s***r
发帖数: 1121 | | D******r
发帖数: 427 | 3 这预测是你自己算出来的还是转载别人的？
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: 个人预测；仅供参考；据此投资，风险自负。
| t********u
发帖数: 109 | | s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 5 MY work. Will do Q4 tonight.
【在 D******r 的大作中提到】
: 这预测是你自己算出来的还是转载别人的？
| s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 6 Do not know. But I guess it will hit $350 before the earnings announcement.
【在 t********u 的大作中提到】
: 今天能上300不？……
| A*******m
发帖数: 157 | 7 Operating income (EBIT) 217,822.74
这个怎么算的？
tax和depreciation呢 | s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 8 Pls look at INCOME STATEMENT of Tesla
http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712
page 7.
Tesla does not report a separate "depreciation" on its income statement. I
guess it includes depreciation into "cost of revenue".
Tax is "Provision for income taxes" in the table.
【在 A*******m 的大作中提到】
: Operating income (EBIT) 217,822.74
: 这个怎么算的？
: tax和depreciation呢
| s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 9 If you need detailed table of estimations; 站内短信。 | j******n
发帖数: 1727 | 10 很牛
难得好贴
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: Pls look at INCOME STATEMENT of Tesla
: http://ir.teslamotors.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712
: page 7.
: Tesla does not report a separate "depreciation" on its income statement. I
: guess it includes depreciation into "cost of revenue".
: Tax is "Provision for income taxes" in the table.
| | | H*****D
发帖数: 4462 | 11 Nice, pretty close to what I estimate, what your ASP and sales for M3?
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: Operating income (EBIT) 217,822.74
: Net Income 82,661.80
: EPS 0.49
: ============
: TSLA Q3E
: Automotive sales 6,010,680.00
: Automotive leasing 286,158.00
: Total automotive revenues 6,296,838.00
: Development services and other 304,281.00
: Energy generation and storage 317,505.00
| l***s
发帖数: 10 | 12 个人觉得会盈利 因为elon在不惜一切代价 牺牲长期利益换来的 但这种盈利很难持续
也不会很多 赞LZ的详细预测 | d***a
发帖数: 13752 | | H*****D
发帖数: 4462 | 14 Naive too simple 现在的奥迪奔驰宝马 不能大肆宣传电车（原因自己去想）又不敢不
做电车 非常尴尬 哈哈 以后就是特斯拉的天下
【在 l***s 的大作中提到】
: 个人觉得会盈利 因为elon在不惜一切代价 牺牲长期利益换来的 但这种盈利很难持续
: 也不会很多 赞LZ的详细预测
| s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 15 Estimated M3 production no. 60,000.00
Estimated M3 delivery no. 71,166.00
no. M3 in transit 11,166.00
Estimated S delivery no. 10,930
Estimated X delivery no. 11,370
Price for M3 60,000.00
Price for S 75,000
Price for X 81,000
Esimated auto revenue 6,010,680,000.00
【在 H*****D 的大作中提到】
: Nice, pretty close to what I estimate, what your ASP and sales for M3?
| s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 16 If use ASP for M3 of $55,000 then we have:
Total auto sales:5,654,850
Total revenue: 6,562,794
EBIT: 144,591.20
Net income: 27,738.15
EPS: 0.16 | s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 17 Q4 estimated EPS: 0.79
Auto revenue: 6,547,000.00
Total revenue: 7,426,140.00
EBIT: 286,839.92
Net income: 134,424.69
Assume:
Estimated M3 production no. 72,000.00
Estimated M3 delivery no. 85,000.00
no. M3 in transit 13,000.00
Estimated S delivery no. 12,000.00
Estimated X delivery no. 12,000.00
Price for M3 55,000.00
Price for S 75,000.00
Price for X 81,000.00
Esimated auto revenue 6,547,000,000.00
=========================
Automotive sales 6,547,000.00
Automotive leasing 293,086.00
Total automotive revenues 6,840,086.00
Development services and other 288,017.00
Energy generation and storage 298,037.00
Total revenues 7,426,140.00
% of auto revenues 0.92
% of development service and other 0.04
% of energy generation and storage 0.04
Revenue growth rate 125.84%
Automotive sales 5,295,448.20
Automotive leasing 136,915.00
Total automotive cost of revenues 5,432,363.20
Development services and other 376,576.00
Energy generation and storage 214,319.89
Total cost of revenues 6,023,259.08
Gross profit 1,402,880.92
Gross profit margin for the whole firm 0.19
Gross profit margin for auto segment 0.21
R&D 381,370.75
R&D margin 0.05
SG&A 734,670.25
SG&A margin 0.10
Restructuring and other -
Total operating expenses 1,116,041.00
Operating income (EBIT) 286,839.92
Operating margin 0.04
Interest income 5,064.00
Interest expense (163,582.00)
Other income, net 50,911.00
Income (loss) before income taxes (EBT) 179,232.92
Provision for income taxes 44,808.23
Income (loss) before noncontrolling items 134,424.69
Net loss attributable to noncontrolling -
Net Income 134,424.69
EPS, diluted 0.79
Weighted average shares used in computing EPS, diluted 169,997.00 | d*****n
发帖数: 782 | 18 厉害
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: Q4 estimated EPS: 0.79
: Auto revenue: 6,547,000.00
: Total revenue: 7,426,140.00
: EBIT: 286,839.92
: Net income: 134,424.69
: Assume:
: Estimated M3 production no. 72,000.00
: Estimated M3 delivery no. 85,000.00
: no. M3 in transit 13,000.00
: Estimated S delivery no. 12,000.00
| s***r
发帖数: 1121 | | b*d
发帖数: 3069 | 20 牛！
ER以后你可以发个预测和实际情况的对照图吗？
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: 如果Q3如我所预测，上400妥妥的。
| | | m*******y
发帖数: 904 | 21 https://www.engadget.com/2018/09/29/tesla-reportedly-met-model-3-quarterly-
production-goal/?yptr=yahoo
Tesla CEO Elon Musk is having a lousy week, but the company might have
something to crow about. A source speaking to Electrek (historically
accurate with these rumors) has reported that Tesla met its lofty target of
building at least 50,000 Model 3 cars over its summer quarter, producing
about 51,000 examples of the 'entry-level' EV by September 28th. The company
had been struggling with manufacturing earlier in the period, but
apparently ramped back up to 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of the
quarter.
The automaker reportedly made about 77,400 EVs in total over the time span,
or 6,700 in that final week.
You likely won't get official figures from Tesla until well after the
quarter ends. It may take weeks to verify these numbers. There's no question
that Tesla has been pulling out all the stops to boost production and
deliveries, such as reducing color options and hand-delivering cars.
If accurate, it'll represent a record for both Tesla and the EV industry as
a whole. For context, the deliveries of popular rivals like the Chevy Bolt (
roughly 2,000 per month) and Nissan Leaf (about 7,300 per month) would seem
modest by comparison. Not that Tesla has much choice. The brand has to raise
production levels for the Model 3 to be profitable, and the launch of the
fabled $35,000 variant is contingent on production increases. We'd expect
the firm to keep striving for larger numbers as a matter of survival, let
alone for bragging rights.
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: Q4 estimated EPS: 0.79
: Auto revenue: 6,547,000.00
: Total revenue: 7,426,140.00
: EBIT: 286,839.92
: Net income: 134,424.69
: Assume:
: Estimated M3 production no. 72,000.00
: Estimated M3 delivery no. 85,000.00
: no. M3 in transit 13,000.00
: Estimated S delivery no. 12,000.00
| s***r
发帖数: 1121 | | s***r
发帖数: 1121 | | s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 24 My Q3 forecast could be too conservative as I did not consider tax credit. | z***e
发帖数: 209 | | t******t
发帖数: 21 | | Y***o
发帖数: 4135 | 27 THanks for sharing...
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: My Q3 forecast could be too conservative as I did not consider tax credit.
| h*********t
发帖数: 385 | | v****r
发帖数: 353 | 29 你预测的大概是gaap eps。
街上一般看non gaap数字。
我三周前估算的non gaap是$0.65左右。不过算的比较粗就，就没好意思拿出来 :p
★ 发自iPhone App: ChinaWeb 1.1.4
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: My Q3 forecast could be too conservative as I did not consider tax credit.
| s***r
发帖数: 1121 | 30 My estimated gross profit margin for Model 3 is 15%, but in fact Tesla
reported 20%. This is the main reason that my estimates are too
conservative. Will revise my model.
credit.
【在 s***r 的大作中提到】
: My Q3 forecast could be too conservative as I did not consider tax credit.
|
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