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发帖数: 2318 | 1 我个人估计贸易战会很快不了了之，然后股市下半年持续上涨。
As Trump Tariffs Hit, The U.S. Is Losing The China Trade War — Big Time
JED GRAHAM
10:08 AM ET
The major trade news this week is President Trump's decision whether to hit
China with new tariffs starting Friday. Those headlines — about whether the
Trump tariffs aimed at China are on or off — will be huge for the stock
market.
X
If they're on, then the U.S. will be at the outset of a technological cold
war with Beijing from which there may be no turning back. If they're off,
then Wall Street will heave a sigh of relief, knowing that Trump's trade
threats will prove to be mostly bark, not bite.
The stock market rally is under pressure, largely due to Trump trade war
fears. The S&P 500 index did rise modestly Thursday morning, reclaiming its
50-day moving average. The Dow Jones rallied, but remains below its 200-day
line.
Yet a weightier headline for the future of world trade and U.S. economic
leadership already hit on Sunday: "World's Biggest Trading Bloc a Step
Closer After Tokyo Meeting." China took another step toward forming a 16-
nation trade zone with Japan and India, covering one-third of the world
economy.
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China Fills Void Amid Trump Trade Retreat
China is moving into the vacuum left after Trump's rejection of the 12-
nation Trans-Pacific Partnership forged by President Obama to ensure lasting
U.S. influence in the Far East.
"As protectionism concerns increase globally, it's important that the Asian
region flies the flag of free trade," Japanese trade minister Hiroshige Seko
said at a news conference, playing up potential for a year-end agreement.
Instead of major U.S. trading partners uniting against China, the U.S. is
drawing fire from all sides for Trump tariffs. China is widely seen as the
prime culprit in global steel overcapacity that spurred Trump's 25% steel
tariff. Yet China has been a minor steel exporter to the U.S., so Trump
picked a fight with Japan, the EU, Mexico and Canada.
While Japan remains wary of China, Trump's metal tariffs and abandonment of
the TPP have Tokyo focused on tighter links with Beijing.
This spring, Trump briefly toyed with rejoining the TPP, having scrapped the
deal four days after taking office. That was a clear signal Trump follows
his gut instincts at the cost of any strategic approach to trade policy.
Trump Eyes Short-Term Win In Long China Trade War
Trump is trying to use America's big trade deficit as leverage to secure an
easy trade-war win. But any win against China will be short term and do
little to narrow its $375 billion trade surplus with the U.S. and alter its
systematic push to gain access to the intellectual property of U.S. firms.
Before negotiations hit a wall, Trump largely declared victory in late May,
when China offered to boost U.S. purchases by $70 billion. Trump touted the
emerging deal as a big win for American farmers. The loser wouldn't be China
, but other countries that supply it.
No question, stocks will rally if such a deal reemerges to avert a China
trade war. But China will have given up little, while the U.S. will have
ceded a lot. |
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