g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 1 上周四早上我发过一个贴，说选举既然Nate Silver
说是70：30，谁赢都正常。不赌.
当时拿来比较的例子是垃圾火箭队和马刺队。
我说火箭队和马刺队常规赛比赛，不能赌。
结果居然真的闯爷赢了。
火箭也...赢了。
Below is my old post:
发信人: chebyshev (......), 信区: Stock
标 题: There is a solid path for a Trump-win situation
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Nov 4 13:38:23 2016, 美东)
According to Nate Silver's web site, the probability of trump win is about
30%. Let's assume it is about 30% with a possible very wide error if you do
not
believe Nate. Anyway, number is not important.
Now, let's think about the similar scenario in real life.
My 20 years basketball watching experience told me that
a 70-30 case implied:
(1) Hillary and Trump are at the same level now.
(2) I am not going to be surprised if Trump won.
Think about the shit Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.
Will you be surprised if Rockets won in one of the games?
No. It just happens naturally. Both are playoff teams.
[
Of course, I will be surprised if Rockets won a 7 games series.
But you cannot vote 7 times for the election.
]
Will you bet on a regular season game of Rockets vs Spurs?
It depends. I personally will not since there will many other
better opptunites. It is silly to bet on playoff level teams' single game.
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