p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 1 that i have lost my first bet of the year, and knowing there will be no
morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
a bit depressed.
i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
market going forward.
my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
sooner or later accept this fact somehow later the year and begin to price
that in, so the dominant view remains a short treasury long financial (until
of course, when the market realize they cant take rate hike as rapid, and
equity in general to crash, but that's most likely next year's event), at
least for the first three quarter of the year.
that being said， there are still two notable minor trends that is possible
to expand and may even become dominant, overshadowing my baseline view. one
of them being the media hyping china slow down and/or capital outflow, the
second, now being put behind the scene, being the greek debt drama. while it
seems to be talk of the town now, i do not believe china will become a
significant problem, as i fully believe in the administration's ability to
handle a crisis, with ample room to manipulate in their monetary policy and
a strong fx reserve to handle any speculative attack, i do not judge it to
be origin of any immediate crisis.
the greek issue on the other hand, is a very tricky one, cuz it is as much a
political one as an economic one, and politics is very very unpredictable.
one will not know when and how it can pop up, and when it pops, can it be
contain and whatnot, so many question i know not.
all in all, if the two side trend really grows and become dominant one, we
might very well saw the top in 2015, and another global meltdown is on the
way.
but this is not my baseline view, baseline view is still somehow in the
spring, things will settle, and market will come to accept a sustain
moderate us recovery, couple with a global recovery as the belated ecb, pboc
and boj stimulus finally start to work their way thru the economy. they
will then take fed seriously and start a rapid repricing of interest rate,
hence leading to a final leg of rally in the market, that of the rally of
the financial sector, until of course, the music stop, sometime later the
year.
and so much bs, still is just a part of the picture, what about the energy
sector, the potential geopolitical issue in middle east, eastern europe,
north korea and last but not least east and south china sea, not to mention
us election, ongoing technology improvement and whatnot.
9 years into this shit, i cannot but admit- I KNOW NOTHING, i judge, as i
have to everytime i bet, but judgement after all is only base on part of
thepicture, most often it is just a dot u see in a huge painting, they were
never complete, and so inferring the whole from the dot will always subject
to error.
well, bs being bs, i will still bet come next month when i get my pay, all i
can do is to hold my new year resolution tight, bet half, spend a quarter,
save some. that way, i can always afford to buy my soda and potato chips
when i blow up my account everytime. | l*********m
发帖数: 16971 | 2 Well said, man
Need to change strategy, no more bet
I will accept my loser hat, stop betting
feel
the
so
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: that i have lost my first bet of the year, and knowing there will be no
: morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
: a bit depressed.
: i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
: cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
: my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
: market going forward.
: my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
: lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
: rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
| c***x
发帖数: 1922 | 3 well, I never saw a wild thing sorry for itself. A small bird will drop
frozen dead from a bough without ever having felt sorry for itself.
I didn't say that, D. H. Lawrence said it.
【在 l*********m 的大作中提到】
: Well said, man
: Need to change strategy, no more bet
: I will accept my loser hat, stop betting
:
: feel
: the
: so
| s****i
发帖数: 727 | 4 best article ever since I joined this forum
I agree with most of yr thoughts. | k**o
发帖数: 191 | 5 I lost a lot last month because of all in Macy's, although I do expect that
the market is melting down. If you don't blind and wishfully think about the
current status. Basic: commodity crash, junk bond shit; only positive is US
economy and consumer.
That is my base point of Macy's, dumped my other positions. The valuation of
Macy's is simple. The earning will be flat and slightly down for years
coming. However, it has strong positive cash flow and billions of real state
. It is only valued at 11 B. What the hack?
I begin to add the position at $38.5. Average down to 36.75. lost 10K in one
month. Fortunately, I am able to back in green plus 5K profit this week,
and I don't have any illusion that any reasoning will work. I have dumped
most of my Macy's position.
I agree that I just have a good luck and know nothing about the market. Just
like I think that Facebook is shit. | w**k
发帖数: 6722 | 6 我就不拽洋文了
这一篇可以和落一的那篇思考长文一起对照看看
满篇字母没人愿意看
大萝卜，呵呵，一声叹息啊 | a*******3
发帖数: 220 | 7 扫地僧嘿嘿
feel
the
so
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: that i have lost my first bet of the year, and knowing there will be no
: morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
: a bit depressed.
: i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
: cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
: my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
: market going forward.
: my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
: lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
: rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
| c***x
发帖数: 1922 | 8 请教谁是落一呀？那篇思考长文是哪篇？
【在 w**k 的大作中提到】
: 我就不拽洋文了
: 这一篇可以和落一的那篇思考长文一起对照看看
: 满篇字母没人愿意看
: 大萝卜，呵呵，一声叹息啊
| c***x
发帖数: 1922 | 9 Wkwk还真的是不拽洋文。
【在 c***x 的大作中提到】
: 请教谁是落一呀？那篇思考长文是哪篇？
| g****t
发帖数: 31659 | 10 市场方向往往是人做出来的
不是猜出来的
人为刀俎
我为鱼肉
国际形势紧张的时候
千万不要只做单方向的long或者short
feel
the
so
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: that i have lost my first bet of the year, and knowing there will be no
: morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
: a bit depressed.
: i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
: cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
: my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
: market going forward.
: my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
: lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
: rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
| | | w**k
发帖数: 6722 | 11 fallenone的那篇，置顶了的
【在 c***x 的大作中提到】
: 请教谁是落一呀？那篇思考长文是哪篇？
| w********2
发帖数: 16371 | 12 大隐隐于市 大萝卜隐于茶餐厅
字数太多看不过来 google 翻译有字数限制
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: that i have lost my first bet of the year, and knowing there will be no
: morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
: a bit depressed.
: i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
: cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
: my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
: market going forward.
: my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
: lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
: rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
| M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 13 Google的自动翻译...挺逗的
我已经失去了当年我的第一个赌注，并知道不会有
morebet直到下个月按我的新的一年的决议。我不能帮助，但感觉
有点郁闷。
我走在房子周围，发现吃剩的蜂蜜烧烤芯片，和我抢一个
杯子和自己倒了一杯新奇士。因为我是咀嚼芯片，喝酒
我的苏打水，我的心情开始平复了一下，并开始思考关于
市场向前发展。
我的基本观点仍然是我们的持续适度增长经济体将
导致政策正常化作为美联储奠定了他们的预期，所以
4次以上加息的显卡为一年，而市场会
早晚接受这个事实，不知何故后来的一年开始价格
在，所以主流观点依然是短期国债财务长（至
当然，当市场意识到他们不能采取加息为快速，
股权一般崩溃，但是这是最有可能明年的活动），在
至少前三个季度的一年。
话虽如此，仍然有两个显着轻微的趋势，这是可能的
扩大甚至可能成为主导，掩盖我的基本看法。一
他们被媒体炒作中国减缓和/或资本外流的
第二，现在正在把幕后，是希腊债务剧。同时
似乎是老李现在，我不相信中国会成为一个
显著的问题，因为我完全相信政府的能力，
处理危机，有足够的空间在其货币政策操作和
强大的外汇储备，以处理任何投机性攻击，我不判断它
任何眼前的危机的起源。
在另一方面，希腊的问题，是一个非常棘手的辩论，因为这既是一个
政治上的作为一个经济，政治是非常非常难以预料。
人会不知道什么时候，以及它如何弹出，当它弹出，能不能
包含和诸如此类的东西，这么多的问题，我不知道。
一切的一切，如果两方真正趋势增长，并成为优势之一，我们
很可能会看到顶部在2015年，而另一次全球性危机是上
方法。
但是这不是我的基本观点，基本观点依然以某种方式在
春天，事情会解决，而市场会接受维持
温和的美国经济复苏，夫妇与全球经济复苏作为迟来的欧洲央行，中国人民银行
而日本央行的刺激终于开始工作，他们的方式通过的经济。他们
然后拿张纸严重，并开始利率迅速重新定价，
因此导致了反弹的最后一站，在市场上，是的涨势
金融业，直到当然，音乐停止，一段时间后的
年。
和这么多的废话少说，还是图片只是一部分，怎么样的能量
部门，潜在的地缘政治问题，在中东，东欧，
朝鲜和最后但并非最不重要东部和南部中国海域，更何况
美国大选，持续的技术改进和诸如此类的东西。
9年这个狗屎，我就忍不住admit-我什么都不知道，我的判断，我
必须每次我敢打赌，但毕竟判断是唯一的基础上的一部分
thepicture，通常它只是一个点ü在巨幅画作看，他们是
永远不会完成，因此从点推断整个总会受到
错误。
同时，BS是BS，我仍然会打赌下个月来的时候我得到我的付出，都是我
能做的就是抱着我的新的一年的决议紧，赌半，花了四分之一，
节省一些。这样一来，我总能买得起我的苏打水和薯片
当我吹我的帐户每次。 | M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 14 萝卜的英语相当的好
feel
the
so
【在 p******e 的大作中提到】
: that i have lost my first bet of the year, and knowing there will be no
: morebet till next month as per my new year resolution. i cant help but feel
: a bit depressed.
: i walk around the house and found a leftover honey bbq chips, and i grab a
: cup and pour myself a cup of sunkist. as i was chewing the chips, drinking
: my soda, my mood started to calm down a bit and started to ponder about the
: market going forward.
: my baseline view is still a continuing moderate growth of us economy will
: lead to a policy normalization as the fed lay out in their forecast, and so
: rate hike of 4 times or more is on the card for the year, and market will
| p******e
发帖数: 17163 | 15 再有才也不可能让我每年30倍。而我却在苦苦追求，因为时间越来越紧迫了。也许我注
定要失败吧。 | j*****5
发帖数: 5135 | 16 how about make your goal smaller, like not loose all your money in one week. |
|
