G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 1 不负任何责任野鸡估值。抛砖引玉供讨论。
我自己算的，主要是帮助自己避免严重高估的股票。
增长率估计的非常粗糙。Growth rate > 35 Price／FCF，ratio大于50的，估值都是天
价，没有参考价值。
[1] "AAPL"
Current Price 104.28
TTM FCF 11.83
Current Price/TTM FCF 8.81
Historial FCF
[1] 0.38 0.25 0.72 1.33 1.41 2.55 4.59 6.26 6.84 8.15 11.83
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 20.16 42.30 30.45 12.12 18.91 15.96 11.87 15.18 10.03 12.45
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(38.57%, 46.71%, 55.33%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(64.62, 96.08, 144.49)
Estimated price range:
(764.41, 1136.61, 1709.34)
[1] "INTC"
Current Price 26.30
TTM FCF 2.19
Current Price/TTM FCF 12.01
Historial FCF
[1] 1.46 0.82 1.28 1.00 1.18 2.02 1.88 1.36 1.97 2.02 2.19
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 17.21 24.40 20.99 14.66 17.29 10.41 12.76 15.05 13.18 17.88
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(2.99%, 7.55%, 12.32%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(10.03, 12.93, 16.91)
Estimated price range:
(21.96, 28.31, 37.03)
[1] "GILD"
Current Price 103.05
TTM FCF 10.18
Current Price/TTM FCF 10.12
Historial FCF
[1] 0.35 0.61 0.87 1.06 1.53 1.59 2.22 1.77 1.72 7.44 10.18
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 37.55 27.51 26.75 24.12 14.23 11.40 9.18 20.63 43.66 12.62
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(22.56%, 31.71%, 41.54%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(28.79, 45.90, 74.79)
Estimated price range:
(293.06, 467.23, 761.40)
[1] "IBM"
Current Price 144.90
TTM FCF 13.33
Current Price/TTM FCF 10.87
Historial FCF
[1] 6.29 6.33 7.90 10.55 12.92 11.49 12.51 12.87 12.10 12.56 13.33
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 13.03 15.30 13.55 7.95 10.13 12.74 14.64 14.85 15.44 12.72
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(4.52%, 7.68%, 10.94%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(10.91, 13.02, 15.66)
Estimated price range:
(145.47, 173.60, 208.71)
[1] "MSFT"
Current Price 42.20
TTM FCF 3.16
Current Price/TTM FCF 13.35
Historial FCF
[1] 1.45 1.22 1.57 1.95 1.77 2.48 2.87 3.45 2.90 3.18 3.16
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 17.25 19.10 18.77 14.18 13.43 9.28 9.06 8.87 11.83 13.07
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(7.77%, 10.71%, 13.73%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(13.09, 15.45, 18.20)
Estimated price range:
(41.36, 48.83, 57.52)
[1] "PEP"
Current Price 92.28
TTM FCF 5.17
Current Price/TTM FCF 17.85
Historial FCF
[1] 2.41 2.38 2.72 2.84 2.96 3.22 3.51 3.66 4.42 5.01 5.17
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 24.41 26.17 27.90 19.22 20.61 20.35 18.85 18.60 18.72 18.80
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(7.39%, 8.45%, 9.53%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(12.81, 13.60, 14.46)
Estimated price range:
(66.23, 70.33, 74.74)
[1] "BRKB"
Current Price 130.52
TTM FCF 6.98
Current Price/TTM FCF 18.70
Historial FCF
[1] 3.14 2.43 3.10 2.20 4.69 4.86 4.96 4.51 6.74 6.83 6.98
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 18.70 30.17 30.55 29.22 14.01 16.55 15.35 19.89 17.59 21.98
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(7.29%, 11.48%, 15.83%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(12.74, 16.14, 20.31)
Estimated price range:
(88.91, 112.65, 141.74)
[1] "BABA"
Current Price 64.63
TTM FCF 0.60
Current Price/TTM FCF 107.72
Historial FCF
[1] 0.02 0.04 0.04 -0.01 0.08 0.06 0.22 0.38 0.69 2.15 0.60
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 138.73
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(36.42%, 52.01%, 69.38%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(58.09, 123.65, 273.51)
Estimated price range:
(34.85, 74.19, 164.10)
[1] "HIMX"
Current Price 6.15
TTM FCF 0.41
Current Price/TTM FCF 15.00
Historial FCF
[1] -0.01 0.06 0.29 0.62 0.34 0.28 0.14 0.27 0.19 0.48 0.41
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 0.00 239.00 14.72 8.94 4.20 8.43 7.15 9.23 81.72 16.79
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(-5.91%, 8.54%, 25.21%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(6.21, 13.67, 32.99)
Estimated price range:
(2.54, 5.60, 13.52)
[1] "XOM"
Current Price 69.81
TTM FCF 1.29
Current Price/TTM FCF 54.12
Historial FCF
[1] 5.42 5.67 6.59 7.78 1.23 4.40 5.00 4.73 2.54 2.84 1.29
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 10.36 13.67 14.33 10.39 55.89 16.58 17.09 18.38 39.84 32.78
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(-19.09%, -10.66%, -1.35%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(3.20, 4.85, 7.91)
Estimated price range:
(4.13, 6.26, 10.21)
[1] "BIDU"
Current Price 140.92
TTM FCF 5.50
Current Price/TTM FCF 25.62
Historial FCF
[1] 0.03 0.10 0.14 0.77 0.76 1.60 2.63 4.32 4.75 5.30 5.50
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 326.13 99.62 161.58 19.34 65.78 96.71 39.41 21.20 36.43 37.77
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(50.33%, 68.20%, 88.21%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(114.21, 259.64, 611.07)
Estimated price range:
(628.18, 1428.03, 3360.90)
[1] "GOOG"
Current Price 589.58
TTM FCF 21.11
Current Price/TTM FCF 27.93
Historial FCF
[1] 2.78 2.71 4.26 6.99 13.33 10.94 17.02 20.10 16.68 16.62 21.11
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 74.69 85.46 76.23 21.06 23.31 27.15 21.17 17.62 33.77 31.93
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(16.87%, 24.20%, 32.00%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(21.44, 31.32, 46.56)
Estimated price range:
(452.58, 661.27, 982.98)
[1] "DIS"
Current Price 96.58
TTM FCF 3.75
Current Price/TTM FCF 25.75
Historial FCF
[1] 1.15 2.28 1.84 1.99 1.77 2.29 1.80 2.30 3.67 3.68 3.75
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 20.77 13.42 18.59 15.50 15.60 14.45 16.76 22.83 17.57 24.13
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(5.43%, 9.72%, 14.18%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(11.48, 14.61, 18.64)
Estimated price range:
(43.06, 54.78, 69.89)
[1] "COST"
Current Price 134.47
TTM FCF 4.39
Current Price/TTM FCF 30.63
Historial FCF
[1] 1.59 1.28 1.51 1.30 1.91 3.87 4.31 3.59 3.07 4.50 4.39
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 27.30 36.27 40.63 51.19 26.69 14.64 18.22 27.26 36.32 26.91
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(9.03%, 14.69%, 20.65%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(14.05, 19.14, 26.09)
Estimated price range:
(61.69, 84.03, 114.51)
[1] "NKE"
Current Price 104.25
TTM FCF 4.21
Current Price/TTM FCF 24.76
Historial FCF
[1] 1.27 1.54 1.48 1.30 2.86 1.42 1.39 2.59 2.35 4.20 4.21
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 15.81 18.55 23.41 21.94 12.65 29.53 38.91 23.90 32.45 24.15
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(5.51%, 11.58%, 17.99%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(11.53, 16.23, 22.72)
Estimated price range:
(48.56, 68.34, 95.66)
[1] "MU"
Current Price 14.89
TTM FCF 2.02
Current Price/TTM FCF 7.37
Historial FCF
[1] 0.27 0.90 -3.47 -1.96 0.90 2.36 -0.07 0.42 0.54 2.54 2.02
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 42.54 18.38 0.00 0.00 8.19 2.75 0.00 14.79 28.27 12.78
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(-4.00%, 12.40%, 31.60%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(6.87, 16.98, 45.65)
Estimated price range:
(13.87, 34.30, 92.21)
[1] "FB"
Current Price 82.35
TTM FCF 1.42
Current Price/TTM FCF 57.99
Historial FCF
[1] 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.63 0.17 1.14 1.36 1.42
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 295.78 48.36 57.79
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(-10.36%, 44.84%, 134.03%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(4.93, 87.82, 3477.29)
Estimated price range:
(7.00, 124.70, 4937.75)
[1] "V"
Current Price 69.07
TTM FCF 2.49
Current Price/TTM FCF 27.74
Historial FCF
[1] 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.83 1.24 1.71 0.97 2.64 2.49
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 0.00 0.00 0.00 153.48 143.98 22.37 17.28 19.63 47.30 20.21
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(38.42%, 85.81%, 149.42%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(64.15, 553.35, 5874.45)
Estimated price range:
(159.73, 1377.84, 14627.38)
[1] "ILMN"
Current Price 194.59
TTM FCF 2.33
Current Price/TTM FCF 83.52
Historial FCF
[1] -0.25 0.24 0.29 -0.06 0.85 1.51 2.01 1.58 2.11 2.41 2.33
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] 0.00 81.90 102.17 124.05 35.67 41.95 15.09 35.18 51.20 76.27
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(20.45%, 30.72%, 41.87%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(25.82, 43.67, 76.00)
Estimated price range:
(60.16, 101.74, 177.09)
[1] "TCEHY"
Current Price 15.50
TTM FCF 0.46
Current Price/TTM FCF 33.70
Historial FCF
[1] 0.01 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.12 0.16 0.15 0.25 0.33 0.46 0.46
Historial Price/FCF Ratio
[1] NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
FCF yearly growth rate estimates:
(38.95%, 50.35%, 62.68%)
Corresponding P/FCF ratio range:
(65.85, 114.32, 202.62)
Estimated price range:
(30.29, 52.59, 93.20)
[1] "Reference table for Growth rate vs Price/FCF"
Growth Rate Price/FCF
[1,] 0.00 8.513564
[2,] 0.01 8.990558
[3,] 0.02 9.496807
[4,] 0.03 10.034134
[5,] 0.04 10.604469
[6,] 0.05 11.209863
[7,] 0.06 11.852486
[8,] 0.07 12.534642
[9,] 0.08 13.258769
[10,] 0.09 14.027452
[11,] 0.10 14.843430
[12,] 0.11 15.709603
[13,] 0.12 16.629044
[14,] 0.13 17.521342
[15,] 0.14 18.460702
[16,] 0.15 19.449417
[17,] 0.16 20.489878
[18,] 0.17 21.584578
[19,] 0.18 22.736118
[20,] 0.19 23.947208
[21,] 0.20 25.220673
[22,] 0.21 26.559455
[23,] 0.22 27.966619
[24,] 0.23 29.445358
[25,] 0.24 30.998997
[26,] 0.25 32.630993
[27,] 0.26 34.344950
[28,] 0.27 36.144613
[29,] 0.28 38.033879
[30,] 0.29 40.016803
[31,] 0.30 42.097600
[32,] 0.31 44.280651
[33,] 0.32 46.570511
[34,] 0.33 48.971914
[35,] 0.34 51.489776
[36,] 0.35 54.129206
[37,] 0.36 56.895510
[38,] 0.37 59.794195
[39,] 0.38 62.830980
[40,] 0.39 66.011800
[41,] 0.40 69.342815
[42,] 0.41 72.830416
[43,] 0.42 76.481233
[44,] 0.43 80.302140
[45,] 0.44 84.300267
[46,] 0.45 88.483008
[47,] 0.46 92.858023
[48,] 0.47 97.433254
[49,] 0.48 102.216930
[50,] 0.49 107.217576 |
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