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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crude-oil futures have been mounting a come
back, lately.
But not everyone believes this rally is a legitimate rebound for the beaten-
down commodity. .
In a note Monday, analysts at Citigroup raised the possibility that West
Texas Intermediate oil prices may fall to as low as the $20 range. Prices on
the New York Mercantile Exchange already suffered a loss of 46% last year.
Year to date, crude-oil prices CLH5, -1.29% have posted a decline of less
than 1%, after gaining nearly 9% in the past three sessions.
Time
Crude Oil - Electronic (NYMEX) Mar 2015
Mar 14
May 14
Jul 14
Sep 14
Nov 14
Jan 15
10/06/2014
●US:CLH5$87.67
US:CLH5$40$60$80$100$120
But the recent rally looks more like a “head-fake than a sustainable
turning point,” said Citi analysts, lead by Edward Morse.
The oil market should bottom sometime between the end of the first quarter
and beginning of the second quarter, with oversupply being a key factor,
Citi analysts said.
“It’s impossible to call a bottom point,” Ciit notes. But that didn’t
stop them from trying. Nymex oil hasn’t settled at the $20 level since 2002.
Crude-oil prices on Monday didn’t appear to be rattled by the bearish Citi
call, as West Texas Intermediate oil for March delivery rose 2.3% on Monday
to close at $52.86. At that level, oil would have to shed about $32 to
fulfill Citi’s most dire predictions.
Citi also cut its forecast for 2015 WTI oil prices to $46 a barrel from a
previous forecast of $55, and reduced its 2015 estimate for Brent crude to $
54 a barrel from $63.
Read: These oil frackers are pulling away from rivals.
Citi’s analysts aren’t the only bunch harboring a grim outlook for oil,
and the Wall Street bank isn’t even the first.
Based on an earlier reading of out-of-the-money put options (puts give you
the right but not the obligation to sell underlying oil futures contracts at
specific strike price), traders have been betting that oil could plummet to
$20 since early January.
Those traders are likely feeling some pain now, given the recent move higher
for crude. |
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