W***n
发帖数: 11530 | | W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 2 GARTMAN: We're Witnessing The End Of The Oil Era
Business Insider
By Myles Udland October 27, 2014 6:14 PM
Dennis Gartman has a new forecast for oil: a lot lower.
In an appearance on CNBC's Fast Money on Monday, Gartman, publisher of the
Gartman Newsletter, said that crude oil prices will fall demonstrably from
current levels.
Earlier on Monday, it had been reported that Gartman saw crude oil going to
$10 a barrel, but he backed a bit off that claim in his appearance on Monday
, saying that maybe next time he ought to be a bit more circumspect when he
talks to CNBC's producers.
But the central spirit of Gartman's not quite $10 call was still intact,
with Gartman saying simply that the era of oil is over. At one point,
Gartman went so far as to compare crude oil to whale oil, which became
obsolete following the advent of crude in the early 20th century.
In discussing the "end of oil," Gartman referenced news from Lockheed Martin
earlier this month that the aerospace giant has made a technological
breakthrough in developing a power source based on nuclear fusion. And while
Business Insider's Jessica Orwig reported that some in the scientific
community are skeptical of this breakthrough, Gartman sees the potential in
this breakthrough as being something of a death knell for oil.
Gartman also referenced other factors weighing on oil prices, namely a
supply glut and a market that is contango.
A market is said to be in contango when the futures contract for a commodity
is more than what the expected price will be in the future.
So basically, if I pay $80 for a futures contract for a barrel of oil I want
to get next year, but if expectations are that the spot price of a barrel
of oil will be $60 in a year, the futures contract — again, assuming the
spot price doesn't move — will have to fall.
This is all a bit oversimplified.
But Gartman's central point is that things look absolutely terrible for
crude oil, and while Gartman was reticent to commit to his $10 a barrel call
, he added that "it doesn't really matter" where oil prices go exactly,
except that they are definitely going lower.
Gartman's comments come after what was an ugly morning for oil, which fell
below $80 a barrel for the first time since June 2012.
The tumble in oil came after analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their price
target on WTI crude oil to $70 by the second quarter of next year.
In his note, Goldman Sachs analyst Jeff Currie wrote:
"We are lowering our oil price forecast to reflect the required slowdown in
US production growth: our WTI crude oil forecast is $75/bbl for 1Q15 and
2H15 (from $90/bbl previously). Given our unchanged WTI-Brent spread
forecast of $10/bbl, our Brent forecast is now $85/bbl ($100/bbl previously)
... Our 2016 and long-term forecasts are now $80/bbl WTI, $90/bbl Brent.
Uncertainty around the required price to slow down US shale production
growth is a key risk to our price forecast."
After Monday's early sell off, oil futures were trading just below $81 a
barrel near 5:30 p.m. ET. | D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 3 少看这些乌七八糟胡喷的文章
居然还喷得如此之多
节省点精力不好吗， | t********s
发帖数: 4503 | 4 师傅好
【在 D******e 的大作中提到】
: 少看这些乌七八糟胡喷的文章
: 居然还喷得如此之多
: 节省点精力不好吗，
|
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