G*****i
发帖数: 2 | 1 牛市已经好几年了，但是现在宏观指标依然强劲，继续看牛。
Our strategic view of the outlook on the US stock index continues to be
constructive.
Our optimism is based on the US's strong economic fundamentals. An improving
labor market, buoyant consumer sentiment, and a modest policy stimulus
suggest that household spending will continue to expand at healthy rates by
US standards. The improving economic cycle in the US has always been the
biggest driver of our more positive view, and our economic and market
indicators are positioned to support an extension of the price increase that
could last through a few months and take US risk assets on a decent growth
path. Therefore, our view on the S&P 500 index is bullish, even in the
longer term.
The macro news calendar in the US has been light but generally positive.
Business investment growth remains solid, as businesses replace worn-out
equipment, respond to the improving productivity of their labor work force,
and expand the capacity of the manufacturing sector. The trend of loans is
also strengthening, historically leading to further growth and extending the
life of this business expansion. At the same time, the employment data in
the US - while muddier - has also been a bit better, and our forecast for
the coming unemployment number release is better than the consensus.
Furthermore, with statistics showing household income rising, we expect
continued expansion of industrial activity in the US going forward.
As we have shown before, the S&P 500 index on average does significantly
better when the momentums of economic indicators in the US are rising than
when they are falling. What's more, the industrial news in the coming month
should once again be good and we expect our final Leading Indicator for the
US to confirm the basic positive message from the initial reading. The US
market index is the star in the current stage of the cycle, which typically
puts in a strong total return performance on a very broad basis. In summary,
we believe investors should consider viewing the current valuation level as
an opportunity to add exposure to the market. |
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