L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 1 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
most likely lies on the the 50wma around 174. the probability of breaking
down below 50wma is slim at this point, but still exit - if the market sees
this weakness of economy growth as sustain, rather than temporory issue such
as weather, or the fed turn out to be hawk rather than dove as the market
hopes for, or China goes into a melt down, etc. needless to say, a bear
run is exceeding difficult to trade, simply because it don't go straight
down. the rebound will be vicious and forceful. but i'll be extremely
cautious in chasing the rebound - unless it meet a certain criteria - i'll
explain a bit more as to what kind of technical criteria i'll be look out
for next.
at what stage the market would most likely mount a rebound: SPX broke down
20ma on a markedly increased volume, the next support is the trend line of
the lows of recent correction, i.e. 155 in Jun 13, 164.5 in Oct 13, 173 in
Feb 14. which point to about 178. Let me give a forewarn, however, most of
the lost in a correction comes from picking the bottom of a bear run - at
least from my personal experience. It's perfectly fine to sit and wait for
the bottom to go past. - being able to go away is a benefit of retail
investor. well, how to tell the bottom has passed? The latest sign is of
course, a new high. that's well pass the low point, but safest. a bit
earlier would be a higher low, it comes also well after the actual bottom,
but it's quite safe. Even earlier would be rising above key resistant on
surging volume, that's not very reliable and take a comprehensive reading of
the market sentiment. failure rate is quite high. There are also a few
hints as to picking the low but i think they are not reliable enough to use
regularly. People interested in doing that are mostly seasoned trader and
won't be reading my post anyway. so i wouldn't discuss here.
anyway, to sum it up, i think this is a correction, not a reversal. the
range of correction is 10% or above. the key point to look out for is 50wma
at 174. rebound could be profitable but the direction is trade toward cash -
take some profit meanwhile take some lost to increase cash holding. avoid
double down trying to recoup lost. and avoid picking the bottom of a bear
run. it's often better to sit in cash until the bottom is well past.
lastly, I reserve the sole exclusive right for explanation. |
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 2 啊，抢第一排
第二段第7行有个错别字， exit->exist
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 3 这几个版务，是考验大家语言能力的？
繁体字读不懂，
这英语，更吃力啊 |
X*********r
发帖数: 11803 | 4 感谢大夫的大作
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
S********t
发帖数: 616 | 5 先顶一下。
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 6 他说啥了？
你真是2分钟看完的？
【在 X*********r 的大作中提到】
: 感谢大夫的大作
:
: typical
: a
|
E**********r
发帖数: 2743 | |
X*********r
发帖数: 11803 | 8 我给你坦白 我没看
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 他说啥了？
: 你真是2分钟看完的？
|
N*****d
发帖数: 9872 | |
n********r
发帖数: 17 | |
|
|
M****n
发帖数: 411 | 11 Thanks for insights.
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.0.1
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
M****n
发帖数: 411 | 12 Funny to see lexian quit typing Chinese after only a few characters..
Much faster composing and typing English
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.0.1
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.0.1
【在 M****n 的大作中提到】
: Thanks for insights.
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.0.1
|
m****e
发帖数: 336 | 13 你怎么越来越刻薄呢，不能继续装淑女么
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 这几个版务，是考验大家语言能力的？
: 繁体字读不懂，
: 这英语，更吃力啊
|
S********t
发帖数: 616 | 14 我的英语也不灵光。
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 这几个版务，是考验大家语言能力的？
: 繁体字读不懂，
: 这英语，更吃力啊
|
u******4
发帖数: 4281 | |
l****e
发帖数: 2315 | 16 用词有商业气氛，大夫卖newsletter还是买newsletter啊？ |
r********a
发帖数: 4472 | 17 大夫说了好多句
说好的几句呢
？
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
C*********n
发帖数: 1083 | 18 zan!
It took the market no time to regain itself after the last correction where
we saw SPY touching 174 during the Chinese new year. My question is, given
the slowing down(let's hope it's not a melting down or anything more
dramatic) of the Chinese economy, how long will this correction last?
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
j*****5
发帖数: 5135 | 19 Wrong, Monday will see.
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
b*d
发帖数: 3069 | 20 顶
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
|
|
p*****s
发帖数: 4393 | 21 谈谈理由吧？
【在 j*****5 的大作中提到】
: Wrong, Monday will see.
:
: typical
: a
|
d*****d
发帖数: 10658 | 22 lol，大夫英语很好啊。总体意思是现金为上，甭急着抄底，更不要ad，等一个higher
low以后再进去抄。
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 这几个版务，是考验大家语言能力的？
: 繁体字读不懂，
: 这英语，更吃力啊
|
H***3
发帖数: 176 | 23 赞
higher
【在 d*****d 的大作中提到】
: lol，大夫英语很好啊。总体意思是现金为上，甭急着抄底，更不要ad，等一个higher
: low以后再进去抄。
|
l********9
发帖数: 65 | |
a****h
发帖数: 6153 | |
K*N
发帖数: 7494 | |
l*********m
发帖数: 16971 | 27 清华高才生也看得吃力？
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 这几个版务，是考验大家语言能力的？
: 繁体字读不懂，
: 这英语，更吃力啊
|
E**********r
发帖数: 2743 | 28 肯定不会，人家只是谦虚而已。 ：）
【在 l*********m 的大作中提到】
: 清华高才生也看得吃力？
|
l***o
发帖数: 5337 | |
q******9
发帖数: 925 | |
|
|
l*****a
发帖数: 24 | 31
typical
a
非常感谢！
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
n******e
发帖数: 595 | |
y********1
发帖数: 249 | |
e***r
发帖数: 183 | |
s******5
发帖数: 319 | |
m*****e
发帖数: 1054 | 36 同问，correction会多长？
【在 s******5 的大作中提到】
: 支持大夫。捞错的话是捂还是割？
|
h*******1
发帖数: 401 | 37 这英语。。。。
不过我还是看明白了 因为我是英语也很烂 |
a*****t
发帖数: 1190 | |
a*****t
发帖数: 1190 | 39 赞概括！
higher
【在 d*****d 的大作中提到】
: lol，大夫英语很好啊。总体意思是现金为上，甭急着抄底，更不要ad，等一个higher
: low以后再进去抄。
|
a*****t
发帖数: 1190 | 40 。。。take some profit meanwhile take some lost to increase cash holding.。。
我理解是割。等底确认后再入。
【在 s******5 的大作中提到】
: 支持大夫。捞错的话是捂还是割？
|
|
|
r**s
发帖数: 266 | 41 好文，顶一下。
NASDAQ is about 8% down from top. So maybe wait another 2-4% down and load
small position of your portofolio(10-20%).
Out after 50% rebound from low if you take loss, or lock small gain for
safety. If you want to take gamble, out after 60-65% rebound from low. |
h*****e
发帖数: 3624 | 42 要不我拼音王加入这届班务就完美了。。。。
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 这几个版务，是考验大家语言能力的？
: 繁体字读不懂，
: 这英语，更吃力啊
|
w*****c
发帖数: 7276 | |
T******r
发帖数: 861 | |
n******5
发帖数: 1990 | 45 总的来说，同意。但是--
生物制药板块，IBB down 22%， 已经进入熊市。大盘rotate一阵，各板块也应该依次
进入熊市。 |
h*****e
发帖数: 3624 | 46 chi
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
Y****3
发帖数: 963 | 47 Can anybody translate it to Chinese?
Thanks |
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 48 lol
【在 Y****3 的大作中提到】
: Can anybody translate it to Chinese?
: Thanks
|
j*******8
发帖数: 915 | |
h**6
发帖数: 4160 | |
|
|
A*********5
发帖数: 340 | 51 这么快就要熊市了，哎。。。。炒股炒成股东够惨的。。。
【在 n******5 的大作中提到】
: 总的来说，同意。但是--
: 生物制药板块，IBB down 22%， 已经进入熊市。大盘rotate一阵，各板块也应该依次
: 进入熊市。
|
m*********2
发帖数: 2788 | |
t******y
发帖数: 1942 | 53 赞！
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
c******1
发帖数: 94 | |
r***r
发帖数: 2077 | |
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 56 这脸打的，我都疼了！！！
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 57 嗯，好文！ 帮顶一下。。。
【在 r**s 的大作中提到】
: 好文，顶一下。
: NASDAQ is about 8% down from top. So maybe wait another 2-4% down and load
: small position of your portofolio(10-20%).
: Out after 50% rebound from low if you take loss, or lock small gain for
: safety. If you want to take gamble, out after 60-65% rebound from low.
|
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 58 我不识趣地问一下大夫
SPX 174 还会到吗？ |
D****6
发帖数: 3429 | 59 一定会到的，
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 我不识趣地问一下大夫
: SPX 174 还会到吗？
|
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 60 那么是什么时候呢？ 我们抄底帮，等的望眼欲穿啊
【在 D****6 的大作中提到】
: 一定会到的，
|
|
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 61 你还是先别急着打脸了， 胳膊还在么？
有人说你是三墙， 我就纳闷什么时候三墙的脑袋让门板夹了。呵呵。
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 这脸打的，我都疼了！！！
:
: typical
: a
|
D****6
发帖数: 3429 | 62 急跌完后接下来是温水煮青蛙，你懂的， 别抄底抄到半山腰。去年和今年年初的涨幅
已透支了好几年的经济增长， 等年底holiday season再抄底吧
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: 那么是什么时候呢？ 我们抄底帮，等的望眼欲穿啊
|
m********t
发帖数: 13072 | 63 SPX在未来半个月内，如果不到174，你打算怎么办？
btw，你这个帖子，今天一整天，都没人顶啊。
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 你还是先别急着打脸了， 胳膊还在么？
: 有人说你是三墙， 我就纳闷什么时候三墙的脑袋让门板夹了。呵呵。
|
D****6
发帖数: 3429 | 64 谁都不是神仙， 而且大夫不是说了只代表自己的观点吗。 月光你就说人打自己的脸
， 你有点过了， 太刻薄
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: SPX在未来半个月内，如果不到174，你打算怎么办？
: btw，你这个帖子，今天一整天，都没人顶啊。
|
C*********n
发帖数: 1083 | 65 不是秋月之光吗？
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 你还是先别急着打脸了， 胳膊还在么？
: 有人说你是三墙， 我就纳闷什么时候三墙的脑袋让门板夹了。呵呵。
|
p**8
发帖数: 3883 | 66 LOL
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
s*******t
发帖数: 1176 | 67 纯技术探讨，spx大概什么时候能到174？
赞一句大夫现在的涵养，比以前好了太多倍了
typical
a
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
|
d******8
发帖数: 2191 | 68 读两遍看懂了，虽然很痛苦，不过花街的quant也就这水平，忍了。赞大夫一个！ |
L****8
发帖数: 1203 | 69 半个月过去了
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: SPX在未来半个月内，如果不到174，你打算怎么办？
: btw，你这个帖子，今天一整天，都没人顶啊。
|
i*******e
发帖数: 1904 | 70 我也觉得大盘是个correction。等下半年欧洲版的量宽开始了，大盘也就要rebound了
。 |
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C*********n
发帖数: 1083 | 71 今天早上有一个NPR的报道，说是今明两天的会议Fed开会要决定怎样控制通胀，还引用
了历史上两个年，一年是出手晚造成通胀另一年是出手早掐断了经济增长。常青藤您怎
么看？
【在 i*******e 的大作中提到】
: 我也觉得大盘是个correction。等下半年欧洲版的量宽开始了，大盘也就要rebound了
: 。
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S***0
发帖数: 199 | 72 这都一个月了，指导青蛙们空仓，hold cash ,这正确率高的不一般，马仔说不来股版
忙着去挣大了，这与本贴思想不符合啊
【在 m********t 的大作中提到】
: SPX在未来半个月内，如果不到174，你打算怎么办？
: btw，你这个帖子，今天一整天，都没人顶啊。
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L****8
发帖数: 1203 | 73 re
【在 S***0 的大作中提到】
: 这都一个月了，指导青蛙们空仓，hold cash ,这正确率高的不一般，马仔说不来股版
: 忙着去挣大了，这与本贴思想不符合啊
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S***0
发帖数: 199 | 74 调整可能要来了
【在 S***0 的大作中提到】
: 这都一个月了，指导青蛙们空仓，hold cash ,这正确率高的不一般，马仔说不来股版
: 忙着去挣大了，这与本贴思想不符合啊
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o**o
发帖数: 3964 | 75 怒赞！
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
: 先声明一下， personal view only. don't represent anybody else, or any
: organization. don't attempt to be the only, the best, or the fool proof
: blindly follow strategy. I whole heartedly, cordially invite the best, the
: never lost or the genius to share their view and criticize - ideally in a
: forward looking fashion rather in a hind sight.
: 大盘(SPX)现在已经从最初的valuation focused sell off扩大成broad market sell
: off. A correction is set in. This correction comes after a sustained 30%
: rally of 2013 and a 10% run in early 2014 that features most of the typical
: technical sign of a late market surge. So i think this correction will be a
: solid 10% correction from the high. i see the end of this correction would
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S****3
发帖数: 453 | 76 赞！
【在 o**o 的大作中提到】
: 怒赞！
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 8.7
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