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发帖数: 355 | 1 Today's US Research Highlights and Market Update
Market Intelligence – Morning Update
By Chris Hussey
Published 19 Mar 2014 6:26:35 am CDT
Stocks in Asia traded directionless Wednesday as calm returns to markets
after a bout of elevated anxiety mostly centered on emerging markets and geo
-political risks. News overnight was fairly scarce. Japan's Tankan survey
and February trade report point to an industrial complex that is hopeful but
quite frankly still falling short of the promised lift that Abenomics and a
much weaker yen was hoping to bring to Japan. Both the yen and the Nikkei
were little changed on the news, however.
European equities are also little changed with the STOXX 600 now back to
flat on the year. Investors are likely holding pat ahead of this afternoon's
statement and press conference from the FOMC - the first meeting chaired by
Janet Yellen (see Noah Weisberger's brief set-up note from this morning, "
Market views muted ahead of the FOMC").
Whither EM angst? With markets trading back to flat ytd and some (the S&P
500) nearing all-time highs again, some investors may be left scratching
their heads on just why tail-risk has receded from the markets so fast.
Using the BRICs as a framework for discussion, we highlight the stresses
still facing the EM as we head deeper into 2014. Conclusion: India appears
to be on the best path of the four BRIC countries.
◾Brazil. Brazil's balance sheet is sound but domestic growth has
slowed and policy credibility has been impaired but growth still remains
dependent on trade, which could accelerate with global growth (see Alberto
Ramos' February 21st note: "Brazil: Weak Fundamentals Could Erode External
Resilience").
◾Russia. We downgraded our GDP growth forecast last week and note
significant capital outflows as a risk (see Clemens Grafe's note from March
13th, "Russia: Capital flight and financial tightening imply weaker growth").
◾India. Weak bank balance sheets could restrain credit growth but we
see a low probability of a crisis (see "India: No ‘banking’ on growth")
and Sunil Koul upgrades India to Overweight across our Asia portfolio
strategy in Friday's "Upgrading Indianesia: lower risks, better micro,
catalysts."
◾China. Much of the weakness in growth can be tied to a conscious
effort by policy makers to implement growth-sustaining reforms. But we
continue to examine the issues surrounding the build-up of credit in China
as a potential pressure point for policy makers in the year ahead (see Ben
Bei's note from yesterday, "China credit conundrum: Assessing near-term
risks").
Looking Ahead: The February quarter earnings season heats up over the next
few days with FDX, GIS, and KBH ahead of the open today among several others
. On the macro front, the FOMC statement today afternoon should dominate the
scheduled news flow.
Performance of global indices
As of March 19, 2014
Source: Reuters
Today's Events:
08:30 am - Current Account Balance - Q4
02:00 pm - FOMC Meeting Results
US Morning Call for March 19, 2014:
Strategy, Sneider: Writing in the margins: Analyzing peak profitability.
US corporate margins are inflated but we don’t see significant downside
risk and expect margins to rise to a new high of 9% in 2015. Still, focus on
stocks with high operating leverage that can benefit more from top line
growth as the economy accelerates.
Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA, Neutral), Rubin: Life beyond Copaxone; upgrade
to Neutral.
Upgrade TEVA to Neutral and raise 12-month price target to $52 as new
management team presents better M&A upside optionality and a strong early
start to Copaxone 3-times weekly may partly mitigate the effects of going
generic later this year.
Managed Care, Borsch: Looking for visibility on key trends for 2014.
Our call with broker William Gallagher points to an acceleration in managed
care rate growth this year to +7-11% from +5-7% a year ago but driven by
health reform surcharges as “same-store” rates remain “flat to marginally
down.”.
Travel Internet, Terry: Updating online travel forecasts; downgrading OWW to
Sell.
Look for an acceleration in global online travel growth in 2014 to 14.2%
from 11.7% in 2013 on a stronger Euro and improving macro. But stocks have
run and we downgrade OWW to Sell as scale disadvantages may be magnified
with the ongoing shift to mobile. Favorite stock: PCLN.
Food, English: Digesting recent commodity volatility; tweak numbers, Sell
SJM.
Food inflation has shifted to a headwind in 2014 but should be manageable
for the Food group as a whole – we lower estimates by less than 1%. But
select stocks are more exposed: Sell-rated SJM (coffee) and Neutral-rated
HSH (pork) where we lower estimates by ~3%.
SPX Corporation (SPW, Buy), Eisner: View on the transformer cycle; Medium-
term benefit for SPW.
Buy SPW (we raise our 12-month price target to $118) as a better economy
should fuel electricity demand which should fuel demand for SPX transformers
(about 15%-20% of EBIT in 2013).
Notable Research not on the call:
Macro
•US Daily: Tax Refunds: The Early Surge Is Fading (Phillips)
•EM Macro Daily - More country-specific drivers of EM FX so far this
year
Industrials
•Engineering & Construction: US LNG award cycle nearly complete,
Chemicals opportunities remain
TMT
•Oracle Corp. (ORCL): A little something for everyone – F3Q14 results
•SAP (Ordinary Share) (SAPG.DE): Neutral read-across from ORCL 3QFY14
results; Maintain CL-Buy
•GS Cloud Platform Series: Takeaways from meeting with Bracket
Computing
Conference Calls & Conferences:
•Today, March 19 – GS TMT Leveraged Finance Conference; Goldman Sachs
Conference Center, New York;
website link: http://www.gs.com/events/tmtlf2014/attendee.
•March 24-25 – GS Chemical Intensity Days; Magnolia Hotel, Houston,
TX;
website link: http://www.gs.com/events/chemint2014.
•March 27 – GS Consumer Digital Day 2014; Goldman Sachs Offices,
London;
website link: http://www.gs.com/events/dgtlmda2014. | h*****7
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【在 a**********2 的大作中提到】
: Today's US Research Highlights and Market Update
: Market Intelligence – Morning Update
: By Chris Hussey
: Published 19 Mar 2014 6:26:35 am CDT
: Stocks in Asia traded directionless Wednesday as calm returns to markets
: after a bout of elevated anxiety mostly centered on emerging markets and geo
: -political risks. News overnight was fairly scarce. Japan's Tankan survey
: and February trade report point to an industrial complex that is hopeful but
: quite frankly still falling short of the promised lift that Abenomics and a
: much weaker yen was hoping to bring to Japan. Both the yen and the Nikkei
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