t****9
发帖数: 4491 | 1 Don’t worry too much about the U.S. or Europe, says George Soros.
The major uncertainty facing the world today is China, writes the
billionaire investor in a column for the Project Syndicate website. He says:
“There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China’s current policies:
restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot
be sustained for much longer than a couple of years.”
The People’s Bank of China moved to rein in debt in 2012, but then the
world’s No. 2 economy experienced “real distress,” Soros writes. So China
’s Communist Party reasserted its supremacy, ordering steelmakers to
restart their furnaces and bankers to ease credit.
China’s economy turned around, and party leaders also announced major
reforms in November. “These developments are largely responsible for the
recent improvement in the global outlook,” Soros says.
What happens next? The 83-year-old Hungarian-American sees two possibilities:
“A successful transition in China will most likely entail political as well
as economic reforms, while failure would undermine still-widespread trust
in the country’s political leadership, resulting in repression at home and
military confrontation abroad.”
Beyond China, Soros argues that a lack of proper global governance is the “
other great unresolved problem.” That could continue indefinitely, while
the Chinese conundrum will come to a head in the next few years, he says.
Regarding the U.S., Soros sounds upbeat, pointing to themes like the energy
boom, less polarization lately in politics and improvements in the banking
and housing sectors. When it comes to Europe, he says the “revival of a
threat from Russia may reverse the prevailing trend toward European
disintegration.” | k*****a
发帖数: 1463 | 2 Soros is on the other side of the China-pumping Rogers who used to work for
him. | p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 3
for
此一时,彼一时. 10-20 years back you can bull on China. Now you cannot.
【在 k*****a 的大作中提到】
: Soros is on the other side of the China-pumping Rogers who used to work for
: him.
| l*****l
发帖数: 4170 | | b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | | Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 6 擦，不敢回国了
【在 b*******e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，今年人民币兑美元要到5:1了。
| B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 7 后面两年到1：5和1：6之间吧
中国收紧货币，美国实业振兴的说法是假象，美元继续衰落RMB更好。全球化，各国人
均GDP趋同，是大趋势。
【在 b*******e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，今年人民币兑美元要到5:1了。
| u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 8 中国的问题是经济很大程度依附美国。打个比方就是个大号的富士康 | l*****l
发帖数: 4170 | 9 说得好。
【在 u**********n 的大作中提到】
: 中国的问题是经济很大程度依附美国。打个比方就是个大号的富士康
| r*****e
发帖数: 4611 | | J***J
发帖数: 6000 | 11 不可能
估计还是3%左右
【在 b*******e 的大作中提到】
: 嗯，今年人民币兑美元要到5:1了。
| s**a
发帖数: 2138 | 12 到5.8？
【在 J***J 的大作中提到】
: 不可能
: 估计还是3%左右
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