b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 1 The Fed first launched quantitative easing in November 2008 after efforts to
boost the economy by lowering interest rates failed. The first programme of
QE saw $600 billion injected into the economy by the Fed via mortgage-
backed securities and government-sponsored enterprises. This then increased
to $1.25 trillion as part of an expansion due to low initial impact. Again,
the Fed tried QE in November 2010 with another $600 billion invested in
longer term Treasury securities. When this still failed to make a great
enough impact, Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, introduced a
continuous QE programme, dubbed ‘QE Infinity’, which commits the Fed to
buying up bonds at an alarming rate of $85 billion a month.
Quantitative easing, experts once assured us, would inspire the US economic
recovery, leading the flagging economy to full health. But will this fiscal
stimulus experiment instead drive the US economy to inflation and financial
disaster? The Federal Reserve’s decision not to begin a tapering of its
asset purchase programme signals a deeper dependency on intangible money
printing. Last September’s third round of QE bond purchases were enacted in
order to drive down interest rates, allowing businesses to borrow more
easily, consequently boosting stock valuations. The QE addiction risks long-
term hyperinflation and massive currency devaluation, fuelling market
distortions and long-term reliance. Yet tapering may spark a climb in
interest rates, prompting further – widespread – financial problems.
Saxo Capital Markets’ infographic draws attention to a mending US economy,
with unemployment rates falling to 7.3% - albeit propped up by part-time
workers – and Q2 GDP rising by 2.5% in 2013. Can the Fed kick the habit?
These indications of growth prompted Bernanke to hint at QE tapering in June
of this year, even stating that asset purchases (how the Fed has achieved
QE) could come to an end if the US unemployment rate “is in the vicinity of
7%”. You can find more detailed figures, and see graphs of the changes and
predictions, by checking the infographic.
Although QE tapering has been suggested, Bernanke has yet to announce a
specific date when the artificially-sustained US economy will begin to be
weaned off QE. Now, in October, the Fed has said that it will reduce asset
purchases in early 2014, but they have laid out no specific timeline for
this tapering. The Fed is also reluctant to make changes to Federal rates,
announcing that they will remain at their current low levels. It is not
until 2015 that they plan to start raising them again. You can see the
expected pace of policy firming based on FOMC forecasts by viewing the graph
in the infographic – the ‘long term’ forecast is for interest rates to
return to 4%, but after how long?
There’s no doubt that QE Infinity has had an effect on a number of
financial areas, including market rates. Ten Year US Treasury Yields have
almost doubled in the last four months – you can see the visualised growth
of US bond yields in the infographic – and this increase in growth could
deter the Fed from tapering QE. Saxo Bank’s Head of FX Strategy, John Hardy
, believes this may be the case and thinks that QE tapering could be “
derailed by a weak US economy that can’t withstand the rise in interest
rates we have already seen”.
Equity markets have also rallied in response to QE because the asset
purchase programmes have invested money into private companies and their
stocks have increased as a result. Savers are also choosing to invest in
stocks whilst interest rates are low. When the FOMC decided not to start
tapering QE, it meant equity markets continued to increase. You can track
the value of the Dow Jones, DAX and FTSE over the last year in the
infographic. If QE is encouraging the equity markets increase, will the Fed
ever risk tapering? | b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 2 花了10分钟仔细读完。这篇文章指出：
1. 利率在2015年前不会提高。
2. QE在2014年初之前不会taper。
3. 即使到了2014，Fed也会谨慎考虑要不要taper。
那就假设QE Infinity继续下去。那么QE是否taper的问题就成了怎么还国债。 |
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