k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 1 http://business.time.com/2013/05/15/why-this-housing-upturn-loo
This Housing Upturn Looks Like the Real Thing
Ever since the recovery began in 2009, a weak housing market has held back
the U.S. economy. The first rebound in home prices was lackluster and after
only a year was followed by another dip. But the recent upturn in home
prices looks like the real thing. One clear sign of a turning point: In
March, homeownership hit a 17-year low, while the 12-month gain in home
prices was the biggest in seven years. Those two extremes suggest that the
market has hit bottom. The people who are least well financed have been
squeezed out, while demand is growing among people who can afford to pay
higher home prices. If that trend continues – and there are good reasons to
believe it will – a substantial burden will be lifted from the U.S.
economy.
The great surprise since the recession ended has been the weakness of the
economic rebound, which has been particularly clear in the housing market.
After falling 31% from 2006 to 2009, home prices rose almost 5% over the
following year. But that recovery faltered, and during the next 20 months
prices fell to a new low. Then the current recovery began, and barring
another recession, all the evidence indicates that it will be sustainable:
In the first quarter, home prices were higher (compared with a year earlier)
in 133 of 150 metropolitan areas, according to the National Association of
Realtors. On a national basis, the median home price gained 11.3%, the
biggest yearly gain since 2005.
(MORE: The Housing Mirage)
The glut of homes for sale has diminished, down almost 17% compared with the
previous year. In addition, the number of foreclosures in April (including
bank repossessions and scheduled auctions) was 23% lower than a year earlier.
Mortgage applications were up 7% in the most recent week, helped by low
mortgage rates. Refinancings, which typically improve homeowners’ finances,
have been generally rising in recent months and reached their highest level
since December.
And a Fannie Mae survey of consumer expectations for housing found that a
majority of those surveyed in April expect prices to rise, compared with
only 32% a year earlier. That’s the highest figure since the survey was
begun three years ago. ”Crossing the 50 percent threshold marks a
significant milestone as most Americans believe a housing recovery is truly
occurring throughout the country,” the survey concludes.
The housing market has a unique relationship with the economy. Depressed
prices hurt certain specific industries, of course, from homebuilders to
companies that make building materials and home furnishings. But the huge
price drop that occurred during the recession – by far the biggest in the
past half century – had much broader effects.
(MORE: Bidding Wars Return in Hot Housing Markets)
In general, falling house prices make homeowners feel poorer and more
cautious about spending. By contrast, during the boom homeowners not only
felt more affluent, but also were able to obtain additional spending money
by refinancing. They could increase the size of their loans, and their
monthly payments might even go down, since mortgage rates were relatively
low. After home prices fell during the recession, however, refinancing
became more difficult and this source of spending money largely disappeared.
The current rise in home prices and refinancings won’t necessarily lead to
an immediate consumer spending boom. Home equity was massively eroded by the
recession and has only started to recover. But at least the drag on
consumer spending is no longer getting worse.
Further gains in home prices will depend to a great extent on easier lending
conditions. “The housing market is improving, but mortgage credit
conditions remain quite tight for borrowers with lower credit scores,” says
Federal Reserve governor Elizabeth Duke. But she adds, “As the economic
and housing market recovery continues, lenders should gain confidence that
mortgage loans will perform well, and they should expand their lending
accordingly.”
Moreover, the economics of housing will likely lead to a revival of demand.
Buying is cheaper than renting in most U.S. cities. Including tax benefits,
someone who buys a home today and lives in it for four to seven years will
save from 20% to 40% over renting, based on national averages.
Equally important, home ownership offers a valuable inflation hedge. There’
s no way of knowing when inflation will become a serious problem again. But
considering the enormous amount of money created by the Federal Reserve
since Quantitative Easing began in November 2008, it’s likely that consumer
prices will start rising significantly faster at some point in the coming
decade. In fact, inflation has totaled more than 8% in the five years since
the recession, despite the sluggish economy.
(MORE: ‘Chained’ CPI for Social Security Calculations Robs Retirees)
At a certain point, these positive trends start to reinforce each other. As
the economic recovery continues and unemployment comes down – even if that
is happening disappointingly slowly – consumer incomes and average credit
scores will rise. And as the number of troubled mortgages and foreclosures
diminish, the quality of bank loan portfolios will improve and lenders
should be willing to make more credit available.
That would help increase the demand for housing and enable potential buyers
to pay higher prices. Moreover, a revived housing sector would add
considerable momentum to the economic recovery – and gives this upturn in
home prices a much better chance of continuing than the previous one. | e*o
发帖数: 2134 | 2 to spy 2400
after
【在 k********8 的大作中提到】
: http://business.time.com/2013/05/15/why-this-housing-upturn-loo
: This Housing Upturn Looks Like the Real Thing
: Ever since the recovery began in 2009, a weak housing market has held back
: the U.S. economy. The first rebound in home prices was lackluster and after
: only a year was followed by another dip. But the recent upturn in home
: prices looks like the real thing. One clear sign of a turning point: In
: March, homeownership hit a 17-year low, while the 12-month gain in home
: prices was the biggest in seven years. Those two extremes suggest that the
: market has hit bottom. The people who are least well financed have been
: squeezed out, while demand is growing among people who can afford to pay
| S*P
发帖数: 7575 | | d********1
发帖数: 8969 | | d********1
发帖数: 8969 | | k********8
发帖数: 7948 | | N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 7 It's funny that people consider "housing recovery" a positive sign
of economy. If you wanna sell real estate then you'd definitely
love it. But if you are a buyer, would you feel happy that the house
you wanna buy at 400K$ is now "recovering" to 500K$.
Are you happy if you find out your favorite ice cream "recovers"
from 5$ to 8$? Are you happy if gas price "recovers" from 3$ to 5$?
Are you happy if your health insurance "recovers" 15% from the
last year's price?
The answer is probably "no" to all three questions above then why
should people be happy about a housing recovery? | k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 8 when housing's out of bear market,
homeowners' confidence rise as their property value appreciate.
therefore, they're more likely to increase their discretionary spendings,
that creates a positive cycle.
the key is to keep up productivity and keep inflation in resonable range.
i see lots of opportunities and emerging industries for the u.s. in decades
to come!
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: It's funny that people consider "housing recovery" a positive sign
: of economy. If you wanna sell real estate then you'd definitely
: love it. But if you are a buyer, would you feel happy that the house
: you wanna buy at 400K$ is now "recovering" to 500K$.
: Are you happy if you find out your favorite ice cream "recovers"
: from 5$ to 8$? Are you happy if gas price "recovers" from 3$ to 5$?
: Are you happy if your health insurance "recovers" 15% from the
: last year's price?
: The answer is probably "no" to all three questions above then why
: should people be happy about a housing recovery?
| N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 9
You know how to "increase their discretionary spendings"? It's by
letting them earn more income. Once the income goes up they'd have
more money to spend in addition to paying that expensive mortgage.
And yet the average income is not improving. When they don't have
that income, all they spend is borrowed money which means more debt
and therefore no recovery.
【在 k********8 的大作中提到】
: when housing's out of bear market,
: homeowners' confidence rise as their property value appreciate.
: therefore, they're more likely to increase their discretionary spendings,
: that creates a positive cycle.
: the key is to keep up productivity and keep inflation in resonable range.
: i see lots of opportunities and emerging industries for the u.s. in decades
: to come!
| k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 10 this is a typical "chick first or egg first" topic.
that's why i call it "creating positive cycle"
having china do manufactoring, the u.s. spend and create is one of those "
positive cycle"
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
:
: You know how to "increase their discretionary spendings"? It's by
: letting them earn more income. Once the income goes up they'd have
: more money to spend in addition to paying that expensive mortgage.
: And yet the average income is not improving. When they don't have
: that income, all they spend is borrowed money which means more debt
: and therefore no recovery.
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