a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 1 Natural gas price is more than doubled from last year. NG companies will
certainly benefit from it during the rise. However, the benefit was limited,
because most of the companies usually hedged before the year end 2012. For
example, CHK hedged 50% of NG at 3.62 by mid Q1, 2013. With price keeps
going up, they can certainly hedge more for 2014. But they won't produce
more until price hit 6, where the break even cost is.
So from the cash flow point of view, Natural gas companies won't benefit as
much as gas itself.
However, what they will benefit is the asset value. The natural gas reserve
is calculated based upon the trailing 12 month average price of natural gas
and thus calculating the land value and reserve value. For most of the
producing area, the break even price is between $4-$7, and the last year
average price of NG was below $4, the NG companies had already wrote down
significant of their asset value, thus big loss for 2012.
Since most of them are short of cash funding for 2013, fire sale is going on
these days and supply is overwhelming. With price steadily going upon, we
will see those companies' book value going up. In the meantime, asset
selling price should improve too. | f****r
发帖数: 5118 | | b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 3 说实话我只能看到PAA等管道股或者液化运输股LNG之类基本上能跟上这轮上涨，其他那
些油气股包括CHK啥啥的都差强人意。 | V*****2
发帖数: 7930 | | f****r
发帖数: 5118 | | D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 6 PSX will be the best.
this turd signed big deals recently | x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 7 这种带着新闻涨的，就是sell 的signal
要比数量XOM全球第一。
关键是一个好的公司应该是稳定的，1人员不能随便进出，2操作不能大幅动摇。 |
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