j******e
发帖数: 294 | 1 TLT needs to clear resistence around 117.9. otherwise, still in the
downtrend. |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 2 it will be in a major decline
what happened was just a warm up
【在 j******e 的大作中提到】
: TLT needs to clear resistence around 117.9. otherwise, still in the
: downtrend.
|
u*****e
发帖数: 744 | 3 it will keep poping
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it will be in a major decline
: what happened was just a warm up
|
a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 4 Will tips fall with tlt?
tips在通涨时能有升值，但是这个升值会不会比不过因为bond甩卖和升息而造成的贬值？
该不该持有tips呢？thanks!
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it will be in a major decline
: what happened was just a warm up
|
j******e
发帖数: 294 | 5 TLT needs to clear resistence around 117.9. otherwise, still in the
downtrend. |
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 6 it will be in a major decline
what happened was just a warm up
【在 j******e 的大作中提到】
: TLT needs to clear resistence around 117.9. otherwise, still in the
: downtrend.
|
u*****e
发帖数: 744 | 7 it will keep poping
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it will be in a major decline
: what happened was just a warm up
|
a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 8 Will tips fall with tlt?
tips在通涨时能有升值，但是这个升值会不会比不过因为bond甩卖和升息而造成的贬值？
该不该持有tips呢？thanks!
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it will be in a major decline
: what happened was just a warm up
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 9 Long bond is sitting at the critical point
expecting it to fall off the cliff in the next few months
this might drive the stock market bull in a parabolic fashion.
if it does, it might be the last leg of this cyclical bull market.
most assetts should receive a strong dose due to the liquidity rushing
out of the bond market.
but the general stock market, especially the weak Nasdaq, might leave
the party earlier than things like oil and gold.
the coming summer can be very bloody.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it will be in a major decline
: what happened was just a warm up
|
l**********4
发帖数: 187 | 10 tips现在面临的一个风险，是利息的升幅超过inflation
这样的话，tips就非常不划算了
值？
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: Will tips fall with tlt?
: tips在通涨时能有升值，但是这个升值会不会比不过因为bond甩卖和升息而造成的贬值？
: 该不该持有tips呢？thanks!
|
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 11 long bond is getting slaughtered as expected too
it is in the critical point where free fall can come if FED does not
come out to save it.
expecting FED to throw it a straw for now with the expense of the stocks
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: it will be in a major decline
: what happened was just a warm up
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 12 long bond seems to get its straw
a swing low on the daily basis is in place now
expect it to confirm a swing low next week on the weekly basis
it can trend higher when stock market gets its hardest hit after mid July
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: long bond is getting slaughtered as expected too
: it is in the critical point where free fall can come if FED does not
: come out to save it.
: expecting FED to throw it a straw for now with the expense of the stocks
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 13 my cycle count is giving a high on July 17th, especially if it trends
lower next week and starts the bounce in the following week
plus, Fed has told bears when they will not be in house so the bears
can start the attack
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
earnings will be just excuses to execute it |
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 14 请问kafen大牛，这个tot表就是bear的行动表？看上去bear的时间紧，任务重啊！难怪
每次一跌就是大跌。
谢谢！
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: my cycle count is giving a high on July 17th, especially if it trends
: lower next week and starts the bounce in the following week
: plus, Fed has told bears when they will not be in house so the bears
: can start the attack
: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
: earnings will be just excuses to execute it
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 15
not at all. I just found it is interesting/odd that they will skip two days
in the middle of the week and it happens to be when the turning point is
due in my cycle work.
my cycle count is similar to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38534.html
with a few differences. For example, I had the head in the week of May 23rd
and left shoulder in the end of March.
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 请问kafen大牛，这个tot表就是bear的行动表？看上去bear的时间紧，任务重啊！难怪
: 每次一跌就是大跌。
: 谢谢！
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 16 多谢大牛！
寄信人: deliver (自动发信系统)
标 题: 本站转帐通知单
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 29 23:54:51 2013)
来 源: mitbbs.com
bullpop，您好：
您转给 kafen,现金(伪币):20,收取手续费:0.2
同时附加了如下留言给 kafen.
thanks for sharing!
站务
days
23rd
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
:
: not at all. I just found it is interesting/odd that they will skip two days
: in the middle of the week and it happens to be when the turning point is
: due in my cycle work.
: my cycle count is similar to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38534.html
: with a few differences. For example, I had the head in the week of May 23rd
: and left shoulder in the end of March.
|
c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 17 看的我一身冷汗呀。。
days
23rd
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
:
: not at all. I just found it is interesting/odd that they will skip two days
: in the middle of the week and it happens to be when the turning point is
: due in my cycle work.
: my cycle count is similar to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38534.html
: with a few differences. For example, I had the head in the week of May 23rd
: and left shoulder in the end of March.
|
g**********2
发帖数: 2408 | 18 学习了，七月中旬的大跌会不会已经price in 了呢？
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: my cycle count is giving a high on July 17th, especially if it trends
: lower next week and starts the bounce in the following week
: plus, Fed has told bears when they will not be in house so the bears
: can start the attack
: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
: earnings will be just excuses to execute it
|
c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 19 how so？
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 g**********2 的大作中提到】
: 学习了，七月中旬的大跌会不会已经price in 了呢？
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 20 TA上看，TLT超卖反弹中，照这势头，近期可以看到~$112
$106.30是重要支撑。
走法和黄金类似。大夫大牛在胡同有个很好的TA分析。 |
|
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 21 these cycle counts are very tricky to apply, especially short term ones
as they mostly only give turning points without high or low confirmations
they have to be used together with other techniques to increase accuracy
the same reason I only post those I am relatively certain.
there is indeed a possibility that mid July would be a low instead and
the market can rally off it into August 6/7, which is Armstrong's turn.
【在 g**********2 的大作中提到】
: 学习了，七月中旬的大跌会不会已经price in 了呢？
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 22 大牛厉害！谢谢！
看来还是要回头多读/读懂胳膊壮的blog. LOL
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: these cycle counts are very tricky to apply, especially short term ones
: as they mostly only give turning points without high or low confirmations
: they have to be used together with other techniques to increase accuracy
: the same reason I only post those I am relatively certain.
: there is indeed a possibility that mid July would be a low instead and
: the market can rally off it into August 6/7, which is Armstrong's turn.
|
c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 23 tlt is opposite to stock index, right?
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: TA上看，TLT超卖反弹中，照这势头，近期可以看到~$112
: $106.30是重要支撑。
: 走法和黄金类似。大夫大牛在胡同有个很好的TA分析。
|
g**********2
发帖数: 2408 | 24 谢谢大牛。不过我还是决定死死的抱住我的EDU,我怕踏空啊。
这大概就是PERMA BULL的定义了。 |
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 25 简单的讲：yes.
需要展开讲的话，请给窝一个包子。LOL
【在 c*********o 的大作中提到】
: tlt is opposite to stock index, right?
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.8
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | 26 可以试卖covered call，详情可以请教rival大牛。
这个回答不用给包子。LOL
【在 g**********2 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢大牛。不过我还是决定死死的抱住我的EDU,我怕踏空啊。
: 这大概就是PERMA BULL的定义了。
|
g**********2
发帖数: 2408 | 27 谢谢，check your email please。
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: 可以试卖covered call，详情可以请教rival大牛。
: 这个回答不用给包子。LOL
|
g**********2
发帖数: 2408 | 28 TLT 收在了106.26，下面怎么走？
【在 b*****p 的大作中提到】
: TA上看，TLT超卖反弹中，照这势头，近期可以看到~$112
: $106.30是重要支撑。
: 走法和黄金类似。大夫大牛在胡同有个很好的TA分析。
|
b*****p
发帖数: 9649 | |
p***e
发帖数: 3852 | 30 any update on the market？
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
: these cycle counts are very tricky to apply, especially short term ones
: as they mostly only give turning points without high or low confirmations
: they have to be used together with other techniques to increase accuracy
: the same reason I only post those I am relatively certain.
: there is indeed a possibility that mid July would be a low instead and
: the market can rally off it into August 6/7, which is Armstrong's turn.
|
|
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 31 当年88买的TLT99卖了，打算88再买回来。 |
