D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 1 The reasons are simple.
1.) There wasn't any bad Intel news in the earnings report. There was the
same ole mantra about sluggishness in PC sales of course but we knew that.
And it's been baked in for six months now. For two quarters in a row, Wall
Street has projected huge misses and they just didn't happen.
2.) There was the red herring about excessive Capex, which is, of course,
not excessive. Otellini explained it but the analysts simply aren't smart
enough to understand. No surprise there. Intel is building for the future
with 450mm which they will use to crush ARMs economics but it's highly
unlikely there will be anything left to crush by the time it arrives. Intel
will have 10 and 7nm production by then.
3.) The economic news continues to be good and that's good for Intel. The US
and Chinese economies are moving on up. Bump for Intel.
4.) Intel is still two bucks off the November low. The Q1 guidance is very
conservative and Intel will beat it along with shorts, shills and analysts
without breaking a sweat.
5.) We have the Cisco news and Mobile World Congress to provide a lift. By
Q2, things will be looking better. Another beat for Intel as guidance will
continue to be conservative for the first half of the year.
6.) By Q3 the world economy is going to be exceeding expectations and
Haswell will be kicking in. By then, the Intel fabrication story will be
getting traction as Intel's technology looks better and better as ARMs
fabrication efforts fade to black. ARM has until July 1 to produce 20nm in
volume. It will never happen. After that ARMs fabrication demise will start
to crush their competitiveness. The ARM fabrication roadmap ends at 20nm
planar.
7.) The major story out of the earnings call was that not a single analyst
talked about fabrication. They are simply too ignorant. As is just about
everyone on Wall Street. And it's all about the fabrication. Paul and Stacy
talked about 22, 14 and 10nm production. Intel is currently working on 10nm.
That's totally amazing but apparently not something the analysts have
considered. At all. Oh, well. They will, they will.
8.) In Q4, Intel's 14nm production will show up and it's game over. ARM has
nothing to compete with it. Nothing.
Q1: Conservative guidance, easy beat. Cisco and MWC 2013 bumps.
Q2: More conservative guidance, economies beat expectations, PC sales move
up, another easy beat
Q3: Haswell arrives, ARMs fabrication fade to black, Intel builds momentum
Q4: Intel 14nm arrives, game over, Intel stock price doubles from 1/18/2013.
So, there you have it. I hope shorts enjoy this little downturn. It's your
last hurrah. | m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 2 It really puzzled me why they needed to spend that much money on CAPEX?
If the pC sales is sluggish at best this year. | Z***e
发帖数: 2983 | | x*********n
发帖数: 28013 | 4 应该还是主要是生产线之类的硬货。
可能也包含RND
【在 Z***e 的大作中提到】
: CAPEX means RND money?
| R****r
发帖数: 623 | 5 据说的确overreactive，但花姐的钱是流向能赚钱的股票。长期持有无担心。观察
support 是21，然后20，然后19。19守不住的话会可能有17-18间，补上几年前的gap。 | k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 6 制造工艺再好有什么用，过几个月别人也就赶上来了。INTC的问题是
根本不会制造smartphone能用的CPU+GPU，否则QCOM也不会全面占领
smartphone市场，市值高过INTC。目前NVDA也有这个问题，制造不出来
smartphone能用的CPU+GPU，只能造出来PAD用的，所以NVDA tegra把PAD
市场给占了，smartphone上面QCOM snapdragon一统天下。INTC现在
造GPU干不过NVDA，造smartphone CPU干不过QCOM，只能白白花钱R&D，
就是不出能用的产品。幸亏现在AMD在PC CPU上不行了，INTC还能保持着
revenue不下降，否则INTC股票直奔$10也有可能。
另外，就从INTC至今拿不出市场认同的smartphone/pad chip来看，这个
公司已经老态龙钟没有活力了，late to everything。 | D******e
发帖数: 11265 | 7 知道为啥这周的option只有21.5的而没有22的？
定做好的 |
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