k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 1 Nov 15, 2012 8:23 AM
Even though our studies were telling us that the correlation between USDJPY
and U.S. stocks was finally shifting -- see Why the Yen Is The New Alpha
Market -- I'm still a bit surprised at how strong USDJPY has been the last
two sessions, particularly in the face of U.S. stock weakness. The impetus
for a strong USDJPY - weak Yen -- has been Liberal Democrat Party President
Abe's insistence that if elected he will urge the Bank of Japan to consider
unlimited printing of Yen to improve domestic conditions. USDJPY ended
Wednesday's session up 1% while the S&P 500 ended down nearly 1-1/2%. Market
followers will tell you that those two markets going in different
directions is the opposite of the correlation their used to.
For the last 5 years U.S. stock weakness and Yen strength went together like
smoke following fire. The Japanese would intervene to strengthen USDJPY
from time to time, but it never held as prices would quickly slump once the
government buying was over and slide to still lower lows. The pattern
following the stock crash of 2008 thru the summer of 2012 was the S&P 500
and USDJPY would fall together -- then the S&P's would recover while USDJPY
would continue to weaken. Whether volatility was rising or falling, i.e.:
risk on or off, the Yen strengthened and USDJPY weakened. Long USDJPY was
jokingly called the "widow-maker trade", because as the joke went: "it had
killed more traders than cigarettes and booze combined". But no more; today
it is crystal clear that USDJPY is going its own way, and for now that is
higher. That doesn't mean we jump right in a go long at these levels just
yet. But it does mean that we have to give serious consideration to moving
the Yen pairs from the top screens to the bottom screens, which means we
move from monitoring and trading the majors to putting more focus on USDJPY
and the other Yen pairs.
The big question is will USDJPY produce another run away, albeit short-term
rally, as we saw in February and March of this year. Or will it be a more
normalized slope with predictable, measured retracements as we saw in
October of this year? However it pans out we'll be on top of it. | a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 2 美元现在已经成为Carry Trade的新主角。 | k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 3 啊？
你搞错了吧！！
还是说你在说美元促成的carrytrade在大面积平仓，行情到头了？ =)
【在 a********t 的大作中提到】
: 美元现在已经成为Carry Trade的新主角。
| a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 4 错了吗？
【在 k********8 的大作中提到】
: 啊？
: 你搞错了吧！！
: 还是说你在说美元促成的carrytrade在大面积平仓，行情到头了？ =)
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