u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 1 "We can expect the market will continue to sell the stocks, given headlines
and uncertainty, and then begin to buy them back when the companies report
manageable losses," the Bernstein analysts said. "For many, this passing and
predictable weakness presents an opportunity to build positions, now at
more attractive levels, in the leading non-life writers to take advantage of
a cyclical pricing recovery."
如果真是那样，不动或适当做空就是最好的对策。
While Hurricane Sandy is on its way to causing untold billions of dollars in
damage, its impact on the stock market is likely to be isolated but
unpredictable.
Getty Images
A pedestrian's umbrella is turned inside out as high winds hit it as the
outer bands of Hurricane Sandy are felt on October 25, 2012 in Miami Beach,
Florida.
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Exchanges across the U.S. closed Monday and could stay that way Tuesday as
the potentially history-making storm stomps its way up the East Coast.
Futures traders made bets Monday that the stock market would open lower —
about 48 points off on the Dow industrials — once trading resumes. (Read
More: How the Decision to Close the Exchanges Came Down)
From there, though, the market action could be volatile.
"Investors have every reason to be on edge as they await the conclusion of
natural, corporate, and political events," said Sam Stovall, chief equity
strategist at Standard & Poor's. "Our belief is that November will be a
month to remember."
Interestingly, Stovall said stocks usually rise in the aftermath of major
storms.
Of the 13 worst hurricanes in U.S. history, only Ike in August 2008, which
struck as the economy was entering freefall, and Hugo in 1989, saw stocks
that were negative in the three-month and six-month intervals afterwards.
The median six-month gains approached 6 percent.
"History says that hurricanes typically don’t trigger market declines,"
Stovall said. "Individually, the market’s performance following major
hurricanes has been uneven, as equities are more likely driven by wider-
reaching global events than localized natural disasters."
Still, Hurricane Sandy is likely to leave a mark.
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The most obvious area would be on property and casualty insurers, which will
have to wrestle with maybe $5 billion or more of claims. (Read More:
Investors Are Already Bailing on Insurance Stocks)
Analysts at Bernstein Research expect some familiar names such as Travelers
[TRV 71.56 --- UNCH (0) ], Allstate [ALL 40.15 --- UNCH (0) ]
and Chubb [CB 77.96 --- UNCH (0) ] to take some early hits but
ultimately rebound.
"As a longer-term investor, even with all the companies in our coverage
likely to announce losses in coming days, we're just not that concerned, for
the storm seems less powerful than broad, and even dramatic headline
economic losses typically end up being much more muted insurable events,"
Bernstein's Josh Stirling and Michael Kovac said in a research note.
Following Hurricane Irene in August 2011, the insurer stocks traded down as
much as 8 percent then recovered as damages became known and investors
realized the companies could handle the losses.
"We can expect the market will continue to sell the stocks, given headlines
and uncertainty, and then begin to buy them back when the companies report
manageable losses," the Bernstein analysts said. "For many, this passing and
predictable weakness presents an opportunity to build positions, now at
more attractive levels, in the leading non-life writers to take advantage of
a cyclical pricing recovery."
Retail stocks, particularly home improvement outfits like Home Depot [HD 60
.04 --- UNCH (0) ] and Lowe's [LOW 31.36 --- UNCH (0) ], also
will be in view. For those stocks, the reaction is often the opposite of the
approach to insurers.
In the immediate aftermath of storms, "the market feasts on the enthusiasm
but then any gains are given back once math is done that the actual impact
to sales (less so earnings as storm precaution items are usually low-margin
commodity-type goods) will be muted," Brian Sozzi, chief equities analyst at
NBG Productions in New York, said in a report.
Sozzi had a few quick observations about what to expect from Sandy:
Homebuilders such as Toll Brothers [TOL 33.82 --- UNCH (0) ], D.R.
Horton [DHI 20.76 --- UNCH (0) ] and Hovnanian [HOV 4.27 --- UNCH
(0) ] could benefit from demand for rebuilding from the storm but are just
as likely to get hit by damages to products, shell buildings and
replacement costs.
Amazon [AMZN 238.24 --- UNCH (0) ], which reported disappointed
earnings last week, "has a long way to go in killing brick and mortar retail
," evidenced when Sozzi did an online search for "hurricane preparation" and
got no results for the online retailer. Outside of the online realm, Apple
[AAPL 604.00 --- UNCH (0) ] has 78 stores in Sandy's path.
Much of the battle for post-storm business will come online. Sozzi found
that Sears [SHLD 66.69 --- UNCH (0) ] had a "surprisingly nice storm
guide on its homepage," while Home Depot also had a "storm central" guide
but Lowe's had none.
Commodities also will get plenty of attention.
Dennis Gartman, who runs a hedge fund and authors the widely followed
Gartman Letter, said that space, too, will be a mixed bag. (Read More: Sandy
Also Could Wreak Havoc With Oil Refineries)
Getty Images
A construction worker covers air vents that could cause the New York subway
system to flood in preperation for Hurricane Sandy.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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"If Sandy becomes truly untoward in the next 48 hours, we can imagine crude
oil prices coming under pressure while gasoline, and particularly heading
oil, race higher," he said. "We can imagine the heating oil backwardation (
future month prices lower than current) to become even more extreme than it
already is, and we can imagine gasoline going backwardated out into the
spring of next year rather easily. Indeed, we’d be surprised if it did not
do so."
The good news is that, ultimately, the U.S. economy will rebound from the
storm and even provide some chances for a quick stimulus.
University of Maryland economist Peter Morici pegged Sandy's total damages
at least $35 billion, much of which will be offset by the economic benefits
of rebuilding.
"Disasters can give the ailing construction sector a boost, and unleash
smart reinvestment that actually improves stricken areas and the lives of
those that survive intact," he said. "Ultimately, Americans, as they always
seem to do, will emerge stronger in the wake of disaster and rebuild better
— making a brighter future in the face of tragedy." | m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 2 Nature disaster normally is good for economic.
Even for P/C companies, they can raise the rate even with tempary big loss.
in
,
【在 u**********n 的大作中提到】
: "We can expect the market will continue to sell the stocks, given headlines
: and uncertainty, and then begin to buy them back when the companies report
: manageable losses," the Bernstein analysts said. "For many, this passing and
: predictable weakness presents an opportunity to build positions, now at
: more attractive levels, in the leading non-life writers to take advantage of
: a cyclical pricing recovery."
: 如果真是那样，不动或适当做空就是最好的对策。
: While Hurricane Sandy is on its way to causing untold billions of dollars in
: damage, its impact on the stock market is likely to be isolated but
: unpredictable.
| q**t
发帖数: 707 | 3 MMs are evil and just do the opposite of whatever they say | u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 4 Not exactly. They give negative outlooks every weekend since QE3 release,
which unfortunately came true.
【在 q**t 的大作中提到】
: MMs are evil and just do the opposite of whatever they say
| G***o
发帖数: 5158 | 5 砸盘要一直砸到奥巴马这匹Show Pony落选。今年总统奥选举，我有一个预感，
就是罗木泥要大比分获胜。
headlines
and
of
in
【在 u**********n 的大作中提到】
: "We can expect the market will continue to sell the stocks, given headlines
: and uncertainty, and then begin to buy them back when the companies report
: manageable losses," the Bernstein analysts said. "For many, this passing and
: predictable weakness presents an opportunity to build positions, now at
: more attractive levels, in the leading non-life writers to take advantage of
: a cyclical pricing recovery."
: 如果真是那样，不动或适当做空就是最好的对策。
: While Hurricane Sandy is on its way to causing untold billions of dollars in
: damage, its impact on the stock market is likely to be isolated but
: unpredictable.
| U********f
发帖数: 2482 | 6 Last year after the storm, HIG stock had a big rally. | u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 7 这样想吧：停盘两天至少，MM两天没收入。这损失到哪里去补？还不是咱们散户这里来
吸？唯有砸盘mm才能获利(mm的存货也qe3宣布那几天就吐掉了，之后就是频频找借口砸
盘）。其实，什么hurricane都是托辞。想当初他们想托盘的时候，什么坏消息都变好
消息。但当时有多少人敢跟(除了mm,没人确定qe3)。 | u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | |
|
