Stock版 - The new kindle family will push AMZN to $300 in 6 months |
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v****r
发帖数: 353 | 1 The new Kindle tablets are very competitive.
AMZN is likely to continue increasing market share and become
the second largest tablet seller.
$300 is actually a conservative target.
AMZN can get there easily in 6 months, if not sooner.
You may not believe it, but I would not short it.
Mark my words. | r****c
发帖数: 2585 | 2 ok, mark your word
but very curious, do you know kindle fire well?
do you know how much it worth for push over 300?
that is about 30-40B of worth
the kindle design spend less than 1B
lot of company will willing to spend that amount of money to get 30B worth
of market share
【在 v****r 的大作中提到】
: The new Kindle tablets are very competitive.
: AMZN is likely to continue increasing market share and become
: the second largest tablet seller.
: $300 is actually a conservative target.
: AMZN can get there easily in 6 months, if not sooner.
: You may not believe it, but I would not short it.
: Mark my words.
| u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 3 一本书里说：不要因为PE太高去short一家growth company，又是牛市，很危险的。其
实看PE还不如看market cap。
【在 r****c 的大作中提到】
: ok, mark your word
: but very curious, do you know kindle fire well?
: do you know how much it worth for push over 300?
: that is about 30-40B of worth
: the kindle design spend less than 1B
: lot of company will willing to spend that amount of money to get 30B worth
: of market share
| r****c
发帖数: 2585 | 4 I do not worry about the PE, but do not think Amzn have the technical
abilities to beat apple or other android devices.
All those are backed up by strong engineers, but amzn try to make the kindle
better so in last year it try to contact over 600 people, both product,
engineer, design from google and apple, but only double digits willing to
talk and single digits do the interviews.
【在 u**********n 的大作中提到】
: 一本书里说：不要因为PE太高去short一家growth company，又是牛市，很危险的。其
: 实看PE还不如看market cap。
| u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 5 Amazon has business in many aspects. I buy more than $1000 merchandise for
personal use as well as over $10,000 worth electronics every year. I know
many other Chinese people sell over million dollars worth merchandise yearly
. Not to mention so many books they are selling (most people buy books from
there). I don't own any Amazon shares though since the price go up too
quickly.
kindle
【在 r****c 的大作中提到】
: I do not worry about the PE, but do not think Amzn have the technical
: abilities to beat apple or other android devices.
: All those are backed up by strong engineers, but amzn try to make the kindle
: better so in last year it try to contact over 600 people, both product,
: engineer, design from google and apple, but only double digits willing to
: talk and single digits do the interviews.
| r****c
发帖数: 2585 | 6 I also buy lot of goods from amazon, it is cheap and tax free for ca, but I
do not think they are good make devices for the tablet. In the meanwhile,
walmart sale everything but amazon's electronics did not come close to all
walmart sale. Amazon is a good company but is not worth 150B for today's
dollar.
yearly
from
【在 u**********n 的大作中提到】
: Amazon has business in many aspects. I buy more than $1000 merchandise for
: personal use as well as over $10,000 worth electronics every year. I know
: many other Chinese people sell over million dollars worth merchandise yearly
: . Not to mention so many books they are selling (most people buy books from
: there). I don't own any Amazon shares though since the price go up too
: quickly.
:
: kindle
| u**********n
发帖数: 8905 | 7 http://www.trefis.com/company?hm=AMZN.trefis&from=search#
If you look at kindle alone, maybe Amazon would be a loser in that sense.
Another thing is growth companies are always over valued. To play safe, don'
t short them. Or start the position after we see a confirmed trend. I
learned a big lesson from shorting recently. | r****c
发帖数: 2585 | 8 After Amazon release kindle fire on Thursday, Google nexus sold on in many
local stores, the web sales almost double compare with wednesday. So it
seems the after comparison, people decide still go with nexus 7, which means
kindle fire disappoint quite a few people, while wall street cheer for that
.
【在 v****r 的大作中提到】
: The new Kindle tablets are very competitive.
: AMZN is likely to continue increasing market share and become
: the second largest tablet seller.
: $300 is actually a conservative target.
: AMZN can get there easily in 6 months, if not sooner.
: You may not believe it, but I would not short it.
: Mark my words.
| g*********e
发帖数: 14401 | 9
kindle
how do you know this?
【在 r****c 的大作中提到】
: I do not worry about the PE, but do not think Amzn have the technical
: abilities to beat apple or other android devices.
: All those are backed up by strong engineers, but amzn try to make the kindle
: better so in last year it try to contact over 600 people, both product,
: engineer, design from google and apple, but only double digits willing to
: talk and single digits do the interviews.
| v****r
发帖数: 353 | 10 Well, I am not an industry insdier, but I do have some experience about
Kindle Fire as a customer. I pre-ordered the original KF the day it was
announced. I also own several other Kindle e-readers, which earned my
faith in the Kindle brand. I pre-ordered KF HD 4G last Thursday after
reading the specs and watching the press conference video.
To your question, amazon won't make $30B by SELLING new KFs. (on a side
note, if you know financial theory, you probably understand that the
valuation of a company does not correlate to the profit from one product
in that way) In fact amazon is not likely to make any money from that.
You may know that the gross margin of KF is nearly zero. As Bezos
explicitly said in the press conference, "We don's want to make money
when you buy our hardware. We want to make it when you use it."
Eventually, amazon will make up the profit from sellng content, after
it builds up the ecosystem. Hardware products is a critical component
in the amazon ecosystem. With Apple being years ahead in the tablet game,
giving away profit from selling hardware is probably the only way any other
player gets to compete with them. We have to give amazon credit on that
initiative (yet it may be one of the only few companies that have the
ability to do that).
On the other hand, the fact that amazon is selling KFs at zero margin
offers its customers much greater value. That's why I said the new KFs
are very competitive. I thought the original KF was only a mediocre
product, yet it had sold tens of millions of units and received good
reviews. The KF HD's are vastly improved products, especially the KF HD 4G,
is totally worth getting for somebody who wants a decent tablet at an
affordable price. Just to highlight the two features/services that I like:
the HDMI output and the $49/year data plan. With Prime (and the recently
added EPIX video titles), you can easily stream HD movies to an HDTV, for
free. The annual data plan also provides convenience and flexibility.
250MB is not a lot, but as long as one doesn't watch videos on mobile
network, it should be sufficient in most cases. You can't ask more for
$4/month.
I can go on and on, but to keep it brief, I do think the new KFs are
likely to be the best tablets at their respective price points. Of course
I have to wait until Thanksgiving to actually exprience it and tell.
I own some Apple products, including an iphone 4S and an iPad2. I also
got to play with the Nexus 7 when it was released on the first day of
Google I/O. I commented back then that Nexus 7 was the best tablet under
$300, but apparently the market landscape has changed now with the new KFs.
It's late night now so I will hold my thoughts on why amazon is such a
great company that will be successful and is worth investing in, which may
already be obvious to many people. I like companies that focus on long
term growth, that's why I recommended two stocks here about six, seven
months ago, i.e., AMZN and LNKD.
Happy investing!
【在 r****c 的大作中提到】
: ok, mark your word
: but very curious, do you know kindle fire well?
: do you know how much it worth for push over 300?
: that is about 30-40B of worth
: the kindle design spend less than 1B
: lot of company will willing to spend that amount of money to get 30B worth
: of market share
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