y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 1 edu is not a good choice even without hunshou's report
1. China economy will not become better in the at least 2 years: there is no
short term cure for it, the rising inflation, rising living cost, capitial
bubble, government corporate advanced but private corporate deteriotered,
capital outflow, structure unemployment rate, low export and huge
depreciation in the currencies of other emerging market will drag the
comparative labor cost down, while appreciation in yuan(forced by USA as
japan) will reduce the competivity of China. All these problem will drag
down the profit of edu.
2. the p/e is 13 while last quater net income is reduced from previous year
3. the structure problem
with all these problem, edu should not be a good investment candidate.
Even if you buy edu, what is your expected return, the fair value could be
14-15 for short term without "hunshui" problem, but the risk is still very
high. And the long term value will not be appreciated until the chinese
economy becomes better
I have the edu 12 call personally but sell my edu stock today. | D**C
发帖数: 6754 | | y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 3 one more reason,
it never has the stock split but never gives the dividend or buy back.
Personally, I consider a stock eager to split stock are concentrating on
pumping stock price rather than do real business.
【在 D**C 的大作中提到】
: in terms of?
| w*****9
发帖数: 122 | 4 经济不好不是会有更多的人会去参加培训或者念书吗
反正失业也没事干 可能会想着去充充电 | y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 5 you are right.
but the operation cost, political risk, currency risk are all very high.
If RMB depreciation, all chinese stocks will be doomed,
if not, most chinese stocks are doomed already due to high cost.
【在 w*****9 的大作中提到】
: 经济不好不是会有更多的人会去参加培训或者念书吗
: 反正失业也没事干 可能会想着去充充电
| w*****9
发帖数: 122 | 6 EDU又不是搞进出口的 汇率对它影响不会太大吧 如果真要那么宏观看问题 中国经济烂
掉 美国在一段时间内也不能独善其身
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.3.1
【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】
: you are right.
: but the operation cost, political risk, currency risk are all very high.
: If RMB depreciation, all chinese stocks will be doomed,
: if not, most chinese stocks are doomed already due to high cost.
| y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 7 if currency depreciaties, its incomes will be discounted in US dollar, so
are all its cash asset.
【在 w*****9 的大作中提到】
: EDU又不是搞进出口的 汇率对它影响不会太大吧 如果真要那么宏观看问题 中国经济烂
: 掉 美国在一段时间内也不能独善其身
:
: ★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 7.3.1
| s******t
发帖数: 12883 | 8 说了那么多， 你还是买了edu, 而且还要keep 12 call, 相当于1200股
的上涨潜力。 这种时候， 你出来叫大家不要买edu, 因为edu不值得。
这说得通吗？
no
year
【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】
: edu is not a good choice even without hunshou's report
: 1. China economy will not become better in the at least 2 years: there is no
: short term cure for it, the rising inflation, rising living cost, capitial
: bubble, government corporate advanced but private corporate deteriotered,
: capital outflow, structure unemployment rate, low export and huge
: depreciation in the currencies of other emerging market will drag the
: comparative labor cost down, while appreciation in yuan(forced by USA as
: japan) will reduce the competivity of China. All these problem will drag
: down the profit of edu.
: 2. the p/e is 13 while last quater net income is reduced from previous year
| m********7
发帖数: 841 | 9 上上个季报不好是因为春节提前的原因，这一点report有提到啊。 | y*******o
发帖数: 6632 | 10 What I mean is I do not think china related stock will be a good candidate
for a long term invest. My perceived reasonable price range is 14-15 in
short term, so surely there is some room to buy in short term, but the
downside risk is still very high. I do not think it is a good investment
over 15. That is all my point. I did not mean anyone should buy or not, if
you are very confident about your day trade level and risk management,
surely you can buy it. But if you are not good at risk control, and always
too greedy when you earn money and never cut meat when you lost money, then
it would be better you skip it because the return is limited in long term.
What do you think about it? Daniu ^_^
【在 s******t 的大作中提到】
: 说了那么多， 你还是买了edu, 而且还要keep 12 call, 相当于1200股
: 的上涨潜力。 这种时候， 你出来叫大家不要买edu, 因为edu不值得。
: 这说得通吗？
:
: no
: year
| t********2
发帖数: 638 | 11 why would inflation affect EDU?
no
year
【在 y*******o 的大作中提到】
: edu is not a good choice even without hunshou's report
: 1. China economy will not become better in the at least 2 years: there is no
: short term cure for it, the rising inflation, rising living cost, capitial
: bubble, government corporate advanced but private corporate deteriotered,
: capital outflow, structure unemployment rate, low export and huge
: depreciation in the currencies of other emerging market will drag the
: comparative labor cost down, while appreciation in yuan(forced by USA as
: japan) will reduce the competivity of China. All these problem will drag
: down the profit of edu.
: 2. the p/e is 13 while last quater net income is reduced from previous year
|
|
