w******t
发帖数: 1929 | 1 Hype-炒作，也叫pump股票， 在free chat room（古板也是其一）是一种常见现象。
摘录这篇文章希望和偶一样的小散善于分辨股票和人，自己FA/TA，进出心中有数。
有看不懂英文的或者看英文觉得累的说一声， 可以google全文翻译。。。
HYPE
I spend a lot of time discussing the topic of hype in this chapter because
I have seen literally hundreds of traders lose their entire portfolios due
to it and I want to ensure that you fully understand what can and is hap-
pening out there. One of the main complaints I hear about online services
is that a lot of hype and misinformation tends to be given. This occurs
primarily in the free chat rooms but occurs in some of the fee-based ser-
vices as well. A service you pick should be absolutely free from hype.
Although free chat rooms have their value, they are a cause for concern.
The upside is that a room moderator usually tries to weed out the
misinformation on stocks or comments presented in the room and warns
those who are posting misinformation to refrain from doing so. Although
this upside is nice to see, the opposite side is that the room moderator
could be simply using the appearance of a single or a group of room
leaders to tout his or her own stocks with a large audience.
I have seen this occur far too many times. The fleecing of traders by
these so-called room leaders is what first brought me to the education of
aspiring traders. I did this in hopes of protecting them from such forums
of misinformation and hype. The most common hype that I see is when
a room leader is going to give out a “special stock pick” at some point
during the trading day. Many of these rooms have hundreds of members
simply because it is free. When these picks are given, it can create a very
large momentum move if the stock generates interest from a large portion of
these room members.
When the room leader is ready to announce the stock pick, the
traders are waiting anxiously in anticipation. This type of momentum is
called channel momentum. When the leader finally announces it,
depending on the stock, it can move up a point or more when the
traders in the room follow the leader into the trade. However, the room
leader entered a position in the stock before the announcement was
made. As the stock is propelled up, he exits his trade safely, selling
hisshares to those room buyers who are anxiously bidding the stock higher.
Room leaders normally pick low-volume stocks to tout because they can move
up quickly on low volume.
Unfortunately, they turn and drop twice as fast as the rest of the
traders scramble to exit their trades all at once, leaving them holding a
losing trade. They end up selling the stock in panic or holding the stock
hoping for the stock to return to those heights so they can exit the trade
with little or no loss. Usually, the stock never returns to those highs and
the trader is left wondering what to do next and takes a bigger loss. I have
seen too many traders lose their entire portfolios falling prey to this type
of hype. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy; the more the leader calls trades,
the more people follow him or her, the more the picks go up, and the bet-
ter his or her reputation gets for calling winners every time. Traders need
to be careful about finding out what the best entry point is on the alert,
and if it’s too far away from where the stock is currently at, they need to
look for a possible re-entry or let the trade go.
Another common form of hype is when a room leader touts a stock
that receives positive news of some sort. We call these news alerts. This
happens when a company will issue a press release for an FDAapproval
or maybe an alliance with a strong company like Microsoft or Intel dur-
ing the trading day. The room leader will then immediately enter the
stock and then push the stock to the room. You will see comments like,
“This is great news and the market will reward it by pushing it up to new
highs.”
The room leader will continue to hype the stock as the majority of
his room continues to bid the stock higher. Meanwhile, he is once again
selling his position to these traders who are bidding the stock higher, and
maybe even shorting it at the highs as he is calling the trade over and done
with. More often than not, several free forums are touting the same stock
at the same time. In fact, I have suspected for years that some of the room
leaders are in many rooms at the same time under different names. This
creates an added momentum to the stock as now we have three or four free
rooms touting the same stock with nearly three to four thousand members. The
initial reason for the stock entry is based on a room leader’s
unaccountable hype. The exit strategy is now based on hope. This is a sure
sign that this trader will not be trading for very long as a career.
When an individual hypes a stock, he or she is attempting to move
the stock in a quick manner that enables the person to exit the stock to
those late buyers that are bidding the stock higher on excitement. The
process usually looks like the following dialog:
“Hey, is the news that MSFT is in a deal with company ABC with
a $50 million investment out yet?”
“Yes, huge news! $50 million! This stock is going to the moon!”
“I’m buying on any weakness. This is a 10-bagger, no problem!!”
“It is up-ticking. This is your last chance to buy at these levels.”
“There it goes. It is flying!”
“Oh yes, I love this stock. This is a huge buy!”
“If you aren’t in now, you had better get in or you will miss the
opportunity of the day.”
“Look at that volume. There is definite institutional backing on
this stock. Smart money is buying this one like crazy.”
“Gooooo ABC!”
“Here comes the first pullback in this stock. I’m adding to my
position big time on any weakness.”
These are just a few of the comments that can constitute a hype of
a stock. The catalyst for the momentum is the news that Microsoft is
investing $50 million into the company. Although this news is certainly
favorable for most companies that were going to do a deal with
Microsoft, hopefully you can see the underlying hype that was created
with these comments. The first sign of hype is the exclamation points
after sentences. If you see exclamation points, the person is very adamant
about his or her viewpoint of the stock. When you go a level deeper into
these comments, we see some very interesting information about these
people. To do this, let’s assign value to company ABC.
Assume that ABC is trading at a level of $10 a share. Then as the
news comes out, most experienced traders will enter the stock anywhere
from 10.01 to 10.02. Bidding the stock at 10 will certainly not ensure you
an execution because there will not be much selling to the bid at 10 to
fill your buy order. Now, as traders enter at no worse than 10.02, they
begin to shout out these comments in the room. The first thing to real-
ize is that these chat rooms have thousands of participants. If one or more
of these forums is touting the same stock, namely ABC, then some very
sharp upside momentum to the stock can occur. The primary traders,
those in at 10.01 to 10.02, will be the ones hyping the stock first. They
will attempt to bring in other buyers so that the stock continues to rise.
Once traders begin to enter at 10.25 to 10.50, they will add to the hype
of the stock, shouting their targets of $15 and $20 a share attempting to
bring in more buyers.
Eventually, the stock may go over 10.50 to near 10.75 where the hyp-
ing begins to die down. The reason the hype dies is that those primary
hypers who successfully tried to get the stock over 10.50 from 10 are now
selling the stock to the late buyers. As the stock pauses, those late buy-
ers see the stock dropping and desperately try to keep the hype going.
However, these late buyers are fighting a losing battle because the stock
hype is now over and there really is no institutional backing of the stock.
More often than not, the stock will move back down near the price that
it was at when the stock was first hyped. In this case, it would settle down
somewhere near 101⁄4 or lower as those that bought the high are
sellingin panic and frustration.
The underlying point to this scenario is that those who are hyping
a stock are usually already in the stock at a lower price and are trying to
create excitement for you to buy at higher levels. They will use these
exclamation points. They will post the news over and over again. They
will post the whole story of the news and they will continue to mention
the stock over and over to draw attention to it. They will use any catch
phrases that signal a strong move to get the unknowing excited enough
to buy the stock and bid it higher. Meanwhile, they are selling the stock
to those late buyers. More often than not, you are buying near the high
of the move and will get caught in selling and have to take a loss. Be very
cautious of stock hype.
When looking back at these comments, a person will realize two
things. First, the comments made in the room are never posted to help
others, but rather fulfill a need or desire of the individuals. Second,
their claims of price targets or accountability have no basis if they are
wrong
and someone loses money because of it. Often, we will see chat room
leaders and bulletin boards make outlandish comments or offer almost
impossible price targets to those reading them.
This serves two purposes for them. If they are correct, they tout
themselves as geniuses because they knew it was going to happen. Afew
people have received rich lives in big predictions that actually came true.
However, when these people are wrong, there is no retribution for your
loss. They are anonymous people hiding behind a screen name that place
the blame right back at you for your losses because you did not research
the trade or the company enough. I hear the following comment in the
trading room from room leaders when a loss is made.
“Geez, you didn’t stop out of that stock already? It clearly topped.
Why didn’t you exit? I exited hours ago. You should do your own
homework if you are going to trade.”
Meanwhile, if someone checked the daily log of the chat room, more
often than not, the room leaders will post their entry, but we will never
see an exit price, especially if it is a loss. Then if they do post their
loss and a room member challenges the room leader, the member is scolded
for not doing his or her own research. This doesn’t seem like a produc-
tive way to learn does it. If we follow the leaders’ advice and they have
a winning trade, they think they are the smartest people in the world. If
we follow their advice and they are wrong, then it is our fault because
we did not do our homework. Either way, they come out as winners and
we are still sheep because we haven’t learned anything. Unfortunately,
learning what is good news and what is hype only can come with expe-
rience of watching stock action relative to what traders are saying. If the
stocks tend to do what they are saying, maybe they have credibility. If
they do not and often go in the opposite direction, maybe it’s time to
re-evaluate.
Again, avoid rooms that have instructors, room leaders, or even
members who are hyping stocks, touting gains, mentioning the same
stock over an over again to attract attention, ridicule or berate their mem-
bers, and offer no sound trading advice. These room leaders are simply
not out to help anyone but their own bottom line and provide no basis
for trust. Their ambiguity is astonishing to read sometimes in how they
approach the trading and the comments that they make include no dis-
cernable information from which to make a clear trade or learn a high
percentage method. Review and compare and make an informed
decision.
Several years ago I suspected that this type of manipulation was
going on and sent my staff into these rooms to monitor. My suspicions
were confirmed when I saw room leader after room leader calling entries
into trades at certain prices when there was no possible way to get the
trade at that price. Then I would see them hyping the stock to no end
and call an exit that was unattainable. I even saw the same calls being
made in several rooms at one time using the exact same verbiage, which
confirmed my belief that not only are they hyping individual rooms,
but multiple rooms at the same time. Be wary of hype; it is real and it
is out there; and if you fall prey to it, you will lose some or all of your
portfolio before you know what happened to you. Good rooms have a
moderator who doesn’t hype his or her stocks, his or her own trades, and
talks in a sane and professional manner. They do not talk of conspiracy
theories or other external information that is out of the control of the
trader.
This being said, I still believe that free chat rooms have value if you
understand the dynamics involved. Free chat rooms should be used as
a source of supplemental information, but I look at every bit of it with a
suspecting eye and never believe it unless I see it myself. Chat rooms also
help to judge the overall daytraders’ interest in a stock and can be used
as a source of news just in case I missed a good news release on my news-
scanning service. This does not happen very often because I have a full
team of news readers on staff using the latest scanning software pack-
ages as well as our members, 450 sets of eyes diligently scouring the news
for gems that cause momentum. Chat rooms are a great source of infor-
mation with highly professional traders that are all looking for the same
set of trading parameters from which to trade. This way most stock activ-
ity is noticed and if a trade is valid, the room will find it. | g**********g
发帖数: 18118 | | B****o
发帖数: 1393 | | s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 4 这不是什么momentum 那本书的一章吗。没啥用处。
【在 w******t 的大作中提到】
: Hype-炒作，也叫pump股票， 在free chat room（古板也是其一）是一种常见现象。
: 摘录这篇文章希望和偶一样的小散善于分辨股票和人，自己FA/TA，进出心中有数。
: 有看不懂英文的或者看英文觉得累的说一声， 可以google全文翻译。。。
: HYPE
: I spend a lot of time discussing the topic of hype in this chapter because
: I have seen literally hundreds of traders lose their entire portfolios due
: to it and I want to ensure that you fully understand what can and is hap-
: pening out there. One of the main complaints I hear about online services
: is that a lot of hype and misinformation tends to be given. This occurs
: primarily in the free chat rooms but occurs in some of the fee-based ser-
| w******t
发帖数: 1929 | 5 村长从来没有pump过任何危险的股票。 他通常是分析股票和大势的趋势外加一只大
水枪， 村长是个炒股经验非常丰富人又好的大牛， 是股版一宝。
btw, 今天牛牛险胜把村长的包子都夺过来了， 村长非常郁闷， hiahia. | b*****s
发帖数: 1475 | 6 顶古板一宝
【在 w******t 的大作中提到】
: 村长从来没有pump过任何危险的股票。 他通常是分析股票和大势的趋势外加一只大
: 水枪， 村长是个炒股经验非常丰富人又好的大牛， 是股版一宝。
: btw, 今天牛牛险胜把村长的包子都夺过来了， 村长非常郁闷， hiahia.
| w******t
发帖数: 1929 | 7 大熊也是股版一宝， 顶大熊
【在 b*****s 的大作中提到】
: 顶古板一宝
| u********e
发帖数: 4950 | 8 ding
【在 w******t 的大作中提到】
: Hype-炒作，也叫pump股票， 在free chat room（古板也是其一）是一种常见现象。
: 摘录这篇文章希望和偶一样的小散善于分辨股票和人，自己FA/TA，进出心中有数。
: 有看不懂英文的或者看英文觉得累的说一声， 可以google全文翻译。。。
: HYPE
: I spend a lot of time discussing the topic of hype in this chapter because
: I have seen literally hundreds of traders lose their entire portfolios due
: to it and I want to ensure that you fully understand what can and is hap-
: pening out there. One of the main complaints I hear about online services
: is that a lot of hype and misinformation tends to be given. This occurs
: primarily in the free chat rooms but occurs in some of the fee-based ser-
|
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