l******n
发帖数: 1250 | 1 Rather than endlessly rehashing the events that have taken place over the
past week, it is this question that investors should be asking. Surprisingly
, however, few are doing so.
And yet, courtesy of a just-released study, calculating a fair price for
Facebook’s stock isn’t as difficult as it might otherwise seem.
The study is entitled “Post-IPO Employment and Revenue Growth for U.S. IPOs
, June 1996–2010.” Its authors are Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the
University of Florida, and two researchers at the University of California,
Davis: Martin Kenney, a professor in the Department of Human and Community
Development, and Donald Patton, a research associate in that same department
. ( Click here to read a copy of their study. )
The researchers found that the revenue of the average company going public
in the period analyzed in the study grew by 212% over the five years after
its IPO (excluding spinoffs and buyouts). Assuming Facebook’s revenue grows
just as fast, and given that the company’s latest-year revenue was $3.71
billion, its annual revenue in five years’ time will be $11.58 billion.
Click to Play
NYSE, Nasdaq face off for Facebook
After the fumbled IPO for Facebook, the NYSE is renewing efforts to lure
more stock listings away from its rival, Nasdaq.
Since Facebook FB -4.87% is most often compared to Google GOOG -2.25% ,
let’s assume that its price-to-sales ratio in five years will be just as
high as Google’s is currently: 5.51-to-1. You could argue that this is an
overly generous assumption, of course. But it nevertheless means Facebook’s
market cap in five years will be just $63.8 billion — 30% less than where
it stands today.
Assuming that the total number of its shares stays constant, that works out
to a price per share of just $23.26 — in contrast to its recent closing
price of $33.03.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebooks-stock-should-trade-f |
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