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发帖数: 1017 | 1 黑石顾问合伙人公司副董事长拜伦-韦恩(Byron R. Wien)日前发布了他对于2012
年的“十大预测”。这也是拜伦·韦恩第27年在新年伊始对该年度在经济、金融市场和
政治各方面可能发生的“意外事件”发表观点。
拜伦-韦恩对于“意外事件”的定义，是指那些普通投资者认为只有三分之一可能
性发生，而他却觉得“非常可能”，即有百分之五十以上可能性发生的事件。
拜伦-韦恩每年发布“十大意外事件预测”的传统始于1986年，当时他担任摩根士
丹利首席美国投资策略师。拜伦·韦恩于2009年9月加入黑石集团，他作为资深顾问为
集团及其客户对经济、政治、市场和社会趋势作出分析。
2012年十大预测
1.页岩油和天然气的提取开始改变游戏规则。石油价格将会回降至每桶85美元，美
国将减少对于中东的石油依赖。波兰、乌克兰和其它地方的资源储量十分可观。利比亚
和伊拉克的产量增加，以及世界范围内的经济活动放缓所导致的需求下降将导致石油价
格回落。
2.美国公司的收益将会继续增长，这将推动标准普尔500指数突破1400点。原材料
价格持续走软，而企业领导者利用技术手段降低产品和服务销售过程中的劳动力和物流
成本，从而成功适应了经济的缓慢增长状态；这都将使得企业的利润率保持较高水平。
3.美国经济将会重新焕发生机，其实际经济增长率将会超过3%，而失业率将降至8%
以下。对于经济衰退的担忧，甚至对于美国经济将长期缓慢增长的“新常态”的看法将
会受到质疑。资本支出，出口和消费将拉动经济，不受税项负荷加重拖累。石油价格的
下跌和股市上涨将会提振消费者信心水平和消费支出的模式。
4.经济复苏和失业率的下降将有助奥巴马总统说服选民，毕竟在第一个任期内他的
表现还不算太差。总体而言人们认为奥巴马是一个很好的演说家，但领导力不足。他的
竞争对手罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)相对平庸，且在许多问题上立场也不明朗。民主党将会
夺回众议院，但失去参议院。
5.欧洲将会最终达成一个广泛的计划以应对其主权债务危机，并在财政统一方面走
得更近。欧洲中央银行、国际货币基金组织(微博)、欧洲金融稳定基金和欧盟将会促使
所有国家都留在欧盟内，并继续使用欧元作为欧洲货币。希腊将会经历一个重大的财务
重组，西班牙和爱尔兰将会在年内改善它们的财政水平，但意大利将会不得不进行“自
愿”的转型。欧洲银行的崩溃将被避免，但对此施加的紧缩将导致欧洲出现经济下滑。
6.计算机将会取代常规武器成为恐怖分子和美国地缘政治对手的主要武器。东欧和
亚洲的黑客将入侵主要国际金融机构的数据库，并导致银行的临时歇业。20国集团将举
行会议来商讨解决这个问题。
7.发达国家快速的货币供应增长将会引发担忧，投资者们将买入那些能够明智地管
理其国内经济的国家的货币。北欧国家的货币、澳大利亚元、新加坡元和韩元将由此受
益。
8.美国国会将明白其角色缺位对于民主党和共和党都是不利的，因而会在11月美国
总统大选前拟出超级委员会(The Super Committee，即参议院联席会议削减赤字专责委
员会)未能达成的协定，旨在未来十年削减1.2万亿美元的财政赤字。国防和医疗保险的
预算都将会大幅减少，对农业的补贴也将被削减，石油，天然气和房地产企业的税率减
免将被修改。奥巴马承诺，如果他连任美国总统成功，小布什总统时期的某些减税计划
将会继续。
9.阿拉伯春天革命将最终终结巴沙尔-阿萨德及其家族对于叙利亚的统治。阿萨德
的下台已经不可避免，同时整个地区将进一步受此波及，哈马斯和真主党的势力将受到
削弱，伊朗将被进一步孤立。
10.尽管过去两年新兴市场的经济保持了高水平个位数的增长，但股市表现不佳，
今年它们终将迎来一个好年头。新兴国家的经济增长将有所下降，但有利估值将使得中
国、印度和巴西的股票指数上涨15%-20%。 | S*******s
发帖数: 13043 | | R******n
发帖数: 687 | 3 2011几乎全错。千万别把这些预测当真。
Byron Wien Announces The Ten Surprises for 2011
New York, January 3rd, 2011 – Byron R. Wien, Vice Chairman, Blackstone
Advisory Partners, today issued his list of The Ten Surprises for 2011. This
is the 26th year Byron has given his predictions of a number of economic,
financial market and political Surprises for the coming year. Byron defines
a “Surprise” as an event which the average investor would only assign a
one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “
probable”, having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S Investment
Strategist at Morgan Stanley. Byron joined The Blackstone Group in September
2009 as a senior advisor to both the Firm and its clients in analyzing
economic, political, market and social trends.
The Surprises of 2011
1. The continuation of the Bush tax cuts coupled with the extension of
unemployment benefits has put all working Americans in a better mood. Real
Gross Domestic Product rises close to 5% in 2011 driven by improved trade
and capital spending in addition to stronger retail sales. Unemployment
drops below 9%.
2. The prospect of increasing Federal budget deficits and rising government
debt finally begins to weigh on the bond market. The yield on the 10-year U
.S. Treasury approaches 5% as foreign investors become more demanding.
Spreads with corporate fixed income securities narrow.
3. Encouraged by renewed economic momentum the Standard & Poor’s 500 rises
close to its old high of 1500. A broad range of sectors participate, but
telecommunications and utilities lag. With earnings improving, valuations
seem low and individual investors return to equities for the first time
since the financial crisis. Merger and acquisition activity becomes intense
and the market reaches a blow-off euphoria. Stocks correct in the second
half as interest rates rise.
4. Although inflation remains benign, the price of gold rises above $1600
as investors across the world place more of their assets in something they
consider “real.” Sovereign wealth funds of countries with significant
dollar reserves also become big buyers. Hedge funds keep thinking the price
rise is becoming parabolic and sell their positions and some even short the
metal but gold keeps climbing and they scramble back in.
5. Worried about inflation and excessive growth, the Chinese decide to use
their currency as a policy tool. They manage the value of the renminbi
aggressively to keep the growth of the economy below 10% and to prevent
consumer prices from increasing above the 4%–5% range. The move is viewed
as a precursor to the world-wide adoption of a basket including the renminbi
as an alternative to the use of the dollar as the principal reserve
currency.
6. Rising standards of living in the developing world seriously increase
the demand for agricultural commodities. The price of corn rises to $8.00,
wheat to $10.00 and soybeans to $16.00. Commodities become a component of
more institutional portfolios.
7. The housing situation improves. Although the inventory of unsold homes
remains high, the oversupply is drawn down substantially, contrasting with
an increase in 2010. The Case-Shiller gradually heads higher and housing
starts exceed 600,000.
8. Continuing demand from the developing world and a failure to bring
onstream new supply causes the price of oil to rise to $115 per barrel. The
higher price at the pump fails to discourage driving, increase sales of
hybrid vehicles or cause Congress to initiate conservation measures.
9. Frustrated by the lack of progress against the Taliban and the
corruption of the Karzai government, President Obama concludes that whenever
American troops return home, Afghanistan will once again become a tribal
state ruled by warlords. He accelerates the withdrawal of most military
personnel to the end of 2011. Coupled with the pullout of forces in Iraq,
this will leave the Middle East without a major Western presence in the face
of rising fears of terrorism.
10. Under duress Angela Merkel leads the way in European financial reform.
The weaker countries, having pledged to cut their budget deficits in half by
2014, are provided additional transitional aid by the European Union (with
Germany’s backing) and the International Monetary Fund as long as they
implement their austerity programs, increase some taxes and still show
modest growth. The European financial crisis becomes less of a concern. The
policies put in place prove psychologically satisfying to the financial
markets but harmful in the longer term because they are palliative and do
not represent solutions. | B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | |
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