d*******r
发帖数: 301 | 1 A quick scan of analysts' 2012 forecasts shows that most of Wall Street
expects stocks to rise in 2012. Before you get excited, consider this:
'Five Wall Street heavyweights say it's time for individual investors to
shun the perceived safety of bonds and get over their fear of the U.S. stock
market so they can take advantage of what they predict will be a third
straight year of solid gains for stocks in 2011.'
Before you go out and buy stocks, beware that you just read the 2011 outlook
printed on the front page of USA Today's December 17, 2010 edition. USA
Today wasn't the only one distributing Wall Street's Kool Aid.
'Outlook 2011 - 10 strategists see the S&P 500 finishing next year at 1,373'
- Barrons, December 18, 2010
'Long way from dog days: 2011 might see record Dow' - AP, December 17, 2011
'Greenspan says U.S. economy is gaining momentum, may expend 3.5% next year'
- Bloomberg, December 17, 2010
2011 Casualty Report
Wall Street's bullish outlook paid off for the first 34 trading days of 2011
, but starting in mid-February the major U.S. indexes a la Dow Jones (DJI: ^
DJI - News), S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC - News), Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC - News) and
Russell 2000 (NYSEArca: IWM - News) suffered a series of set backs.
As the chart of the S&P 500 below shows, there was one major high and one
major low along with a number of minor highs and lows within a general
trading range.
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160;
What was Wall Street's advice right before the May high and the October low?
Buckle up, enjoy the ride and get ready to make a brand new New Year's
resolution.
Guilty on All Counts
The S&P 500 topped on May 2 at 1,370.58. Ironically that was the same day
Osama Bin Laden's death hit the wire (so much for news driving the market).
Here are some headlines found right before the May high:
'World revs up U.S. profits' - Wall Street Journal
'GE CEO Immelt says global economy is improving' - AP
'The S&P 500 breaks out' - Yahoo Breakout
'The Dow's going to 20,000' - Yahoo
'Sales Growth the big surprise on Wall Street' - AP
'Buffett says odds of another U.S. banking crisis low' - AP
Quite to the contrary, the May 1 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter recommended
to go short at 1,369 with a tight stop-loss. This trade was in line with the
outlook provided in the April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update: 'In terms of
resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a
reversal of potentially historic proportions.'
Over the next few weeks, the newsletter recommended to lock in profits a
couple of times, but most importantly reaffirmed its recommendation to go
short before the summer meltdown occurred.
The Perfect SeeSaw
From July 7 to October 4 the S&P lost 20%. On September 23, the ETF Profit
Strategy Newsletter foretold that: 'From its May high at 1,370 to its
eventual low, the S&P will likely have lost about 300 points (22%). This
kind of move validates a counter trend rally. The plan is to square short
positions and buy long positions around 1,088. The rally, once underway,
will probably re-inspire a certain degree of confidence into the market
before it runs out of steam. The most likely target for this rally is S&P 1,
266 - 1,282.'
By now you probably guessed that Wall Street's take on the market was
different. Here's a brief sample of headlines:
'Think the economy is bad? You haven't seen anything' - CNBC, October 3
'S&P enters bear market territory' - Reuters, October 4
'S&P falls to the bears' - TheStreet, October 4
What effect did Wall Street's guidance and the media's cheerleading have? On
October 2, two days before the onset of a massive 20%, 18 day trading rally
, the Associated Press reported that: 'Wild market ride is driving people
out of stocks.'
Thanks to the lethal Wall Street/media combo, many investors sold at the
worst time, again.
Asset-Overreaching Incompetence
Wall Street had the same rotten timing when it came to gold (NYSEArca: GLD -
News) and silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News).
Silver spiked to nearly $50 on April 28. On April 27, the Wall Street
Journal reported that: 'Silver rush spreads to stock market. Investors have
turned to precious metals amid worries about inflation and the weakness in
the U.S dollar. The metals are increasingly considered attractive as a
permanent store of value that doesn't diminish like paper currencies.'
The April 25 ETF Profit Strategy update pointed out silver's gap up open and
warned that: 'The gap up open may have been an exhaustion gap and cautions
that a historic reversal may have occurred.'
The Next Profit Opportunity
The October 4 low proved to be a great buying opportunity. Since the S&P
reached my target range of 1,250 - 1,300 however, the performance has become
stale. Via the November 30 ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter I assumed that: '
Based on seasonality and today's volume it appears that higher prices are
likely. I would like to see a slow grind within the 1,226 - 1,xxx (reserved
for subscribers) range. This would suggest a virtually untradeable December
followed by another great opportunity.'
This 'great opportunity' is not here quite yet, but a quick glance at VIX (
NYSEArca: VXX - News) shows that volatility creates a double bottom in
December/January, which usually coincides with a January top of some sort
for stocks.
The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter identifies the up side target of this
rally along with an easy to understand short, mid and long-term forecast.
More From ETFguide.com
2012 Off to a Good Start - Will it Last?
Will Gold and Silver Regain Strength and Become the Safe Haven They're
Supposed to be?
A Simple, Common Sense Outlook for 2012 | l*****f
发帖数: 2198 | 2 KEYWORD: ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter =Stock Market Bible? | d********1
发帖数: 3828 | 3 1.如果按wall street media说的trade能挣钱的话，全人类都是亿万富翁了。
2.如果认为wall street media说的都是反的，那你反着它做也成亿万富翁了。
如果1，2都不是的话，那这个article一文不值。
stock
outlook
373'
【在 d*******r 的大作中提到】
: A quick scan of analysts' 2012 forecasts shows that most of Wall Street
: expects stocks to rise in 2012. Before you get excited, consider this:
: 'Five Wall Street heavyweights say it's time for individual investors to
: shun the perceived safety of bonds and get over their fear of the U.S. stock
: market so they can take advantage of what they predict will be a third
: straight year of solid gains for stocks in 2011.'
: Before you go out and buy stocks, beware that you just read the 2011 outlook
: printed on the front page of USA Today's December 17, 2010 edition. USA
: Today wasn't the only one distributing Wall Street's Kool Aid.
: 'Outlook 2011 - 10 strategists see the S&P 500 finishing next year at 1,373'
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