b*******2
发帖数: 3202 | 1 On Friday, Dec. 2 at 0830ET/1330GMT, the November employment report will be
released. Expectations are for a non-farm payrolls change of +125K (prior +
80K; range of estimates +75/+175), a private payrolls change of +150K (prior
+104K; range +110/+190), and a steady 9.0% unemployment rate, according to
Bloomberg surveys. This past Wednesday, the ADP national employment report,
roughly comparable to private payrolls, showed a +206K increase, larger than
the expected +130K, and the prior month was revised from +110 to +130,
leading some estimates for NFP/PP to be revised higher. However, we would
note that more than half of the ADP increase (+110K) came from small
businesses employing 50 or fewer workers, which may not be captured by the
government's establishment survey of businesses. Also, weekly jobless claims
continue to hover around the 400K level and today's ISM manufacturing
employment index, a forward looking indicator, dropped from 53.5 to 51.8,
both suggesting to us there has been no material increase in the pace of
hiring. Taken together, we look for NFP/PP not to mirror the above-consensus
ADP gains and to register more in line with the lower Street consensus.
Specifically, we look for NFP at +120K, private payrolls at +155K and for a
steady 9.0% unemployment rate. We would also expect further positive
revisions to Oct. and Sept. of around +50K altogether |
|
