u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 1 http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/world/world/general/greek-
Greek debt agreement will collapse within three months: Soros
BY KAMAL AHMED, IN LONDON
31 Oct, 2011 04:00 AM
Veteran investor George Soros has attacked the lack of leadership at the top
of the eurozone and said that the new Brussels ''deal'' to solve the debt
crisis will last only between ''one day and three months''.
Mr Soros, who achieved worldwide fame when he bet against sterling remaining
within the Exchange Rate Mechanism in the 1990s, said the 50per cent ''
haircut'' on private bond holders would reduce Greek debt by only 20per cent.
He said that was insufficient to stop an economic decline in Greece which
would lead to greater social unrest.
His words came as the eurozone appeared to be heading for further economic
trouble as investors started to express scepticism about the rescue deal
announced on Thursday. This weekend Goldman Sachs said the eurozone
countries were heading for a ''mild recession'' as confidence waned.
''Given the magnitude of the crisis, it is again too little too late,'' Mr
Soros said of the Brussels deal at a dinner organised by Pi Capital investor
network.
''It will bring relief partly because the markets were so obsessed by the
lack of leadership. The mere fact that something was achieved was a major
relief and it will be good for any time from one day to three months.
''Unfortunately it is not the last crisis because the fundamental issues
have not been settled. It is clear that the amount of debt that Greece has
accumulated and is accumulating is untenable and the country is effectively
insolvent.''
Mr Soros argued that many banks might not voluntarily join the deal as they
would want to wait for the insurance offered by the credit default swaps
they hold against the debt to be triggered. At present because the haircut
is voluntary, European leaders have said the Greek default is not considered
a ''credit event'' which would spark credit default swap payouts and
possibly a new financial crisis.
''Unfortunately, the 50per cent haircut is effectively less than a 20per
cent reduction in the overall debt [for Greece] because it only involves the
private sector and excludes all the debt that is held by the ECB [European
Central Bank] and the other public authorities and also the debt held by
Greece because the banks, of course, will now be insolvent and the pension
funds also,'' Mr Soros said. |
S********t
发帖数: 1600 | 2 就算崩溃，也可能影响不了短的时间周期内的走势
短期还是要用ta和好的操作习惯来胜出阿
长期确实看不到牛的膜样，除非失业率猛降 |
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | |
g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 4 将来世界的主要货币肯定某种程度上跟黄金挂钩，不能无休无止的印钱
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 一句话， 除了印钱， 无解。
|
S********t
发帖数: 1600 | 5 GDP 2.5% 的话及格线把，估计不会印钱了
不过话说回来。。。如果真印钱对我们来说是好事
直接无脑all in long就行了。。。 |
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 6 第二页：
''It is not at all clear that the private sector will actually deliver this
voluntary cut because many of the banks are hedged by holding credit default
swaps and this doesn't trigger the credit default swaps. As a private
institution you could argue that it is the fiduciary responsibility of the
board to look to the benefit of the bank rather than the common benefit.
''So, from the banks' point of view it is better to have a credit event
where the CDS becomes active and protects them from the loss. That is an
unsolved problem which may emerge in the next few weeks.
''The failure in terms of governance and the lack of understanding among the
leadership how to deal with the market is really quite astounding.
''You have to lead markets, that is what they don't understand.'' |
b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 7 跟流通商品总量有关系。
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 将来世界的主要货币肯定某种程度上跟黄金挂钩，不能无休无止的印钱
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 8 Italy 十年期债券利率6.16%, 要出大问题了。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 第二页：
: ''It is not at all clear that the private sector will actually deliver this
: voluntary cut because many of the banks are hedged by holding credit default
: swaps and this doesn't trigger the credit default swaps. As a private
: institution you could argue that it is the fiduciary responsibility of the
: board to look to the benefit of the bank rather than the common benefit.
: ''So, from the banks' point of view it is better to have a credit event
: where the CDS becomes active and protects them from the loss. That is an
: unsolved problem which may emerge in the next few weeks.
: ''The failure in terms of governance and the lack of understanding among the
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 9 恩, up 25个基点了， 从上周三。
这个增速赶上当初爱尔兰了。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: Italy 十年期债券利率6.16%, 要出大问题了。
|
a****c
发帖数: 339 | 10 But the banks already agreed a 50% haircut (after being locked inside until
4am). What can they do to trigger the credit event?
this
default
the
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 第二页：
: ''It is not at all clear that the private sector will actually deliver this
: voluntary cut because many of the banks are hedged by holding credit default
: swaps and this doesn't trigger the credit default swaps. As a private
: institution you could argue that it is the fiduciary responsibility of the
: board to look to the benefit of the bank rather than the common benefit.
: ''So, from the banks' point of view it is better to have a credit event
: where the CDS becomes active and protects them from the loss. That is an
: unsolved problem which may emerge in the next few weeks.
: ''The failure in terms of governance and the lack of understanding among the
|
|
|
c****y
发帖数: 3592 | |
R*I
发帖数: 1840 | 12 昨天在TCFA年会上不记得是Byron Wien还是Paulson说意大利百分之六的利率根本不
justify承担的风险
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: Italy 十年期债券利率6.16%, 要出大问题了。
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 13 ECB还有在支撑吧。
德国只是反对在２级市场买。
ECB听不听还是回事， 欧猪５国和比利时的债券一直都有ECB在买抬价。
【在 R*I 的大作中提到】
: 昨天在TCFA年会上不记得是Byron Wien还是Paulson说意大利百分之六的利率根本不
: justify承担的风险
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 14 DRR赚钱了。。。
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: ECB还有在支撑吧。
: 德国只是反对在２级市场买。
: ECB听不听还是回事， 欧猪５国和比利时的债券一直都有ECB在买抬价。
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 15 没有想到5天就崩了。
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: ECB还有在支撑吧。
: 德国只是反对在２级市场买。
: ECB听不听还是回事， 欧猪５国和比利时的债券一直都有ECB在买抬价。
|
S****X
发帖数: 2301 | 16
3个月后等于明年1月底？ 老索V5啊。。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 没有想到5天就崩了。
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 17 http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/world/world/general/greek-
Greek debt agreement will collapse within three months: Soros
BY KAMAL AHMED, IN LONDON
31 Oct, 2011 04:00 AM
Veteran investor George Soros has attacked the lack of leadership at the top
of the eurozone and said that the new Brussels ''deal'' to solve the debt
crisis will last only between ''one day and three months''.
Mr Soros, who achieved worldwide fame when he bet against sterling remaining
within the Exchange Rate Mechanism in the 1990s, said the 50per cent ''
haircut'' on private bond holders would reduce Greek debt by only 20per cent.
He said that was insufficient to stop an economic decline in Greece which
would lead to greater social unrest.
His words came as the eurozone appeared to be heading for further economic
trouble as investors started to express scepticism about the rescue deal
announced on Thursday. This weekend Goldman Sachs said the eurozone
countries were heading for a ''mild recession'' as confidence waned.
''Given the magnitude of the crisis, it is again too little too late,'' Mr
Soros said of the Brussels deal at a dinner organised by Pi Capital investor
network.
''It will bring relief partly because the markets were so obsessed by the
lack of leadership. The mere fact that something was achieved was a major
relief and it will be good for any time from one day to three months.
''Unfortunately it is not the last crisis because the fundamental issues
have not been settled. It is clear that the amount of debt that Greece has
accumulated and is accumulating is untenable and the country is effectively
insolvent.''
Mr Soros argued that many banks might not voluntarily join the deal as they
would want to wait for the insurance offered by the credit default swaps
they hold against the debt to be triggered. At present because the haircut
is voluntary, European leaders have said the Greek default is not considered
a ''credit event'' which would spark credit default swap payouts and
possibly a new financial crisis.
''Unfortunately, the 50per cent haircut is effectively less than a 20per
cent reduction in the overall debt [for Greece] because it only involves the
private sector and excludes all the debt that is held by the ECB [European
Central Bank] and the other public authorities and also the debt held by
Greece because the banks, of course, will now be insolvent and the pension
funds also,'' Mr Soros said. |
S********t
发帖数: 1600 | 18 就算崩溃，也可能影响不了短的时间周期内的走势
短期还是要用ta和好的操作习惯来胜出阿
长期确实看不到牛的膜样，除非失业率猛降 |
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | |
g******n
发帖数: 53185 | 20 将来世界的主要货币肯定某种程度上跟黄金挂钩，不能无休无止的印钱
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 一句话， 除了印钱， 无解。
|
|
|
S********t
发帖数: 1600 | 21 GDP 2.5% 的话及格线把，估计不会印钱了
不过话说回来。。。如果真印钱对我们来说是好事
直接无脑all in long就行了。。。 |
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 22 第二页：
''It is not at all clear that the private sector will actually deliver this
voluntary cut because many of the banks are hedged by holding credit default
swaps and this doesn't trigger the credit default swaps. As a private
institution you could argue that it is the fiduciary responsibility of the
board to look to the benefit of the bank rather than the common benefit.
''So, from the banks' point of view it is better to have a credit event
where the CDS becomes active and protects them from the loss. That is an
unsolved problem which may emerge in the next few weeks.
''The failure in terms of governance and the lack of understanding among the
leadership how to deal with the market is really quite astounding.
''You have to lead markets, that is what they don't understand.'' |
b*******e
发帖数: 6389 | 23 跟流通商品总量有关系。
【在 g******n 的大作中提到】
: 将来世界的主要货币肯定某种程度上跟黄金挂钩，不能无休无止的印钱
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 24 Italy 十年期债券利率6.16%, 要出大问题了。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 第二页：
: ''It is not at all clear that the private sector will actually deliver this
: voluntary cut because many of the banks are hedged by holding credit default
: swaps and this doesn't trigger the credit default swaps. As a private
: institution you could argue that it is the fiduciary responsibility of the
: board to look to the benefit of the bank rather than the common benefit.
: ''So, from the banks' point of view it is better to have a credit event
: where the CDS becomes active and protects them from the loss. That is an
: unsolved problem which may emerge in the next few weeks.
: ''The failure in terms of governance and the lack of understanding among the
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 25 恩, up 25个基点了， 从上周三。
这个增速赶上当初爱尔兰了。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: Italy 十年期债券利率6.16%, 要出大问题了。
|
a****c
发帖数: 339 | 26 But the banks already agreed a 50% haircut (after being locked inside until
4am). What can they do to trigger the credit event?
this
default
the
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 第二页：
: ''It is not at all clear that the private sector will actually deliver this
: voluntary cut because many of the banks are hedged by holding credit default
: swaps and this doesn't trigger the credit default swaps. As a private
: institution you could argue that it is the fiduciary responsibility of the
: board to look to the benefit of the bank rather than the common benefit.
: ''So, from the banks' point of view it is better to have a credit event
: where the CDS becomes active and protects them from the loss. That is an
: unsolved problem which may emerge in the next few weeks.
: ''The failure in terms of governance and the lack of understanding among the
|
c****y
发帖数: 3592 | |
R*I
发帖数: 1840 | 28 昨天在TCFA年会上不记得是Byron Wien还是Paulson说意大利百分之六的利率根本不
justify承担的风险
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: Italy 十年期债券利率6.16%, 要出大问题了。
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 29 ECB还有在支撑吧。
德国只是反对在２级市场买。
ECB听不听还是回事， 欧猪５国和比利时的债券一直都有ECB在买抬价。
【在 R*I 的大作中提到】
: 昨天在TCFA年会上不记得是Byron Wien还是Paulson说意大利百分之六的利率根本不
: justify承担的风险
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 30 DRR赚钱了。。。
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: ECB还有在支撑吧。
: 德国只是反对在２级市场买。
: ECB听不听还是回事， 欧猪５国和比利时的债券一直都有ECB在买抬价。
|
|
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 31 没有想到5天就崩了。
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: ECB还有在支撑吧。
: 德国只是反对在２级市场买。
: ECB听不听还是回事， 欧猪５国和比利时的债券一直都有ECB在买抬价。
|
S****X
发帖数: 2301 | 32
3个月后等于明年1月底？ 老索V5啊。。
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 没有想到5天就崩了。
|
u****n
发帖数: 7521 | 33 老索V5啊
【在 S****X 的大作中提到】
:
: 3个月后等于明年1月底？ 老索V5啊。。
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 34 姜还是老的辣。不被一时的价格变化左右更是必须的
【在 u****n 的大作中提到】
: 老索V5啊
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 35 greenspan, soros & rogers是我做long term的重要参考。
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: 姜还是老的辣。不被一时的价格变化左右更是必须的
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 36 前几天说中国要出手的都是欧洲人，而胡总电话上根本不提此事
【在 c****y 的大作中提到】
: 不是中国要出手了么，那不就搞定了么
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 37 要德国人印钱，不到大衰退关头，难
【在 d*********2 的大作中提到】
: 一句话， 除了印钱， 无解。
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 38 IIF agreed at 4AM to an voluntary haircut, and IIF can not legally/
contractually force the banks to involuntarily do it. The banks can simply
choose not to participate
until
【在 a****c 的大作中提到】
: But the banks already agreed a 50% haircut (after being locked inside until
: 4am). What can they do to trigger the credit event?
:
: this
: default
: the
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 39 德国人并不是因为什么魏玛共和国的阴影。
唯一的原因， 德国是欧洲的大债主， saving最多的国家。
QE是对savers的penalty.
所以他们反对， 芬兰瑞典荷兰都在the same boat。
但是只要euro不解体， 他们也别无选择。
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: 要德国人印钱，不到大衰退关头，难
|
D*****i
发帖数: 8922 | 40 土工在救欧洲的问题上还是没有把门关死，土工在拿捏欧洲，准备坐地起价捞实惠。
前些时候土工外交部副部长已经暗示了，“傅莹表示，她希望中欧双方通过克服这个危
机，相互理解和相互信任能得到增强，相互合作能得到深化，使危机最后成为大家前进
的好机会。她也希望双方能相互尊重，平等相待，实事求是、客观地相互认识，使长期
解决不了的中欧之间的一些困难问题逐渐得到解决。”这最后一句就是要压欧洲在承认
中国市场经济地位，解除高技术和军火禁运方面做让步。
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: 前几天说中国要出手的都是欧洲人，而胡总电话上根本不提此事
|
|
|
z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 41 是，温家宝九月的讲话非常明确。不过人家不开面，一周后就在瓷砖反倾销上大搞中国
一把
【在 D*****i 的大作中提到】
: 土工在救欧洲的问题上还是没有把门关死，土工在拿捏欧洲，准备坐地起价捞实惠。
: 前些时候土工外交部副部长已经暗示了，“傅莹表示，她希望中欧双方通过克服这个危
: 机，相互理解和相互信任能得到增强，相互合作能得到深化，使危机最后成为大家前进
: 的好机会。她也希望双方能相互尊重，平等相待，实事求是、客观地相互认识，使长期
: 解决不了的中欧之间的一些困难问题逐渐得到解决。”这最后一句就是要压欧洲在承认
: 中国市场经济地位，解除高技术和军火禁运方面做让步。
|
