u****d
发帖数: 23938 | 1 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Manof33 (糊涂佬) 于 (Mon Aug 15 23:59:57 2011, 美东) 提到:
偶然翻出2010年5月28号的一个research note, 我当时成功预测了节下来3个月是
correction model. 果然市场在9月开始上涨,结果那时候我忙着工作忙着玩,基本没看
股市---其实也是被08年玩怕了,最后啥也没赚到.
那个note我博客里还有,大家不信的可以去看:
http://www.mitbbs.com/pc/pccon_7823_t0_123499.html
So if history can repeat itself, we may have 3 more months to go in
correction mode. 我当时是这么想的.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
zijing (紫晶) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:03:43 2011, 美东) 提到:
还活着呢？以为海归了呢
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Manof33 (糊涂佬) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:09:52 2011, 美东) 提到:
haha...我好好的,又归海了哈.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
zijing (紫晶) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:12:54 2011, 美东) 提到:
现在不止３３了吧？上次２００８年胡同闹自杀的那位他们说是你，我有点不太信，你
说呢？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Manof33 (糊涂佬) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:18:21 2011, 美东) 提到:
我没去过胡同,
我确实抄底失败了,但是没到伤筋动骨的地步,嘿嘿.炒股末,一定要是闲钱; 其次不可以
有狗头军师,水手多了翻船---我当时亏在第2条.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
zijing (紫晶) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:23:30 2011, 美东) 提到:
我也觉得不象你。欢迎归海？真海归过，还是说着玩的？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Manof33 (糊涂佬) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:31:59 2011, 美东) 提到:
我真的归过,还写过海龟感想呢. 归海后我还在博客里写了炒股失败的教训, 一共三篇:
1)understand the risk; 2)your mind setup 3)your patience
我自己觉得写得不错呢,我这种心态的人怎么可能闹自杀,笑死.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Manof33 (糊涂佬) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:34:17 2011, 美东) 提到:
1. Understand the risk
When you decide to start trading stocks you need to know the potential risk
associated with it. Nowadays the conventional wisdom that “buy & hold”
will never work again. For example, if you buy and hold diversified blue
chips ten years ago and today in 2010, rather than your hope of at least
beating the inflation, most likely your investment will end up with some
loss in absolute paper value, after all we have experienced two wild cycles
of index down turns. In 2007 when the market crashed, most American lost
almost half of the balance in their 401K account and are forced to put off
their retire dates by at least several years. Let me put it differently,
when you trade stocks, esp. when you do short term trading, you are gambling
rather than investing. Lots of people are not aware of this. Sometimes when
I told my friends that I went to casino to play poker cash games, they were
so concerned and warned me tighten up my risk control. It sounds like a
paradox that they worry about me playing poker with several hundreds dollars
, while feeling comfortable putting thousands of $ into the stock market---
the public gambling field.
2. give up your ego
Maybe you are a top nut researcher in your field, or a famous lawyer/doctor,
when we trade stocks we are on the same starting line. Stock is an
irrational field by its gambling nature and your smartness may not
necessarily earn you trading edge. On the contrary, lots of smart people
tend to hold very strong belief of their own opinion and very often this
leads to significant trade loss and sometimes tragic story. I sort of recall
the words from one of the most successful traders in history: stock market
is one of most fascinating, yet the wildest animals I have ever seen; I have
been observing it everyday in the past many years and I am still learning
from it everyday. In a nutshell, one needs to adjust his or her trading
strategy from time to time according to the market condition change. Another
ego-daunting error is the wishful thinking: when the market moves against
one’s holding he/she insists that the market will come back and refuses to
cut loss; sometimes he even averages down again and again and amplifies the
loss to many times larger. I myself have been there and I do not want you to
repeat this. When the market trend is confirmed, simply cut loss and take
the cash to the side line. To become a better trader, you need to have the
courage to admit that “I am wrong” from time and time and be willing to
change and follow the market trend.
3.Your patience
Crocodile is one of the oldest residents of our planets, and the cheetah is
the fastest animal in the world. Do you know anything in common between a
crocodile and a cheetah? Both of them possess great patience when hunting
for food. For them, the patience in hunting marks the line between live and
death; for you, the patience in stock trading decides win and loss. As
simple as that! In order to survive in this brutal stock market, you have to
be well disciplined. Some in-experienced cheetah chased for food all day
and starved by one or two unlucky consequences
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
zijing (紫晶) 于 (Tue Aug 16 00:43:57 2011, 美东) 提到:
好好的，整那么多洋文干啥，看着都累，写起来不更累吗？海龟感想在什么地方
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Manof33 (糊涂佬) 于 (Tue Aug 16 01:00:47 2011, 美东) 提到:
马甲写的,不看也罢,没啥新鲜的.
我洋文是被变态环境逼出来的,有时候弄些严肃认真的想法反倒用它来得快.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
Manof33 (糊涂佬) 于 (Tue Aug 16 01:02:43 2011, 美东) 提到:
对了,记得当初你入市算晚的,最近几年你beat大盘了没? |
|
