Chinese Economy Barometer Definition
Soft Landing: GDP growth >6% but <=8%
Hard Landing: GDP growth >4% but <=6%
Crash Landing: GDP growth <=4%
The financial markets in China have become increasingly unstable and that
the risk of a hard landing is rising. There are four systematic risks that
have the potential to cause financial market turmoil:
1) private lending (a current issue)
2) property price correction (potentially over the next three to twelve
months)
3) bank bad debt write-off and eventual recapitalization (potentially over
the next two to three years)
4) “hot money” outflows (event driven and highly unpredictable)
