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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 1 THINGS MAY HAVE TO GET WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER
"Arthur Hill recently described the current trading range as a "wave four" c
onsolidation within a "five-wave" decline. That fits with my view for anothe
r downleg which would most likely occur during the month of October. That ca
rries good and bad news. The bad news is that lower prices are expected into
October. The good news is that a five-wave decline is usually followed by a
rally. In addition, Octobers have a history of experiencing lower prices wh
ich are often followed by market bottoms. In other words, things may have to
get worse before they can get better."
NASDAQ STILL STALLED AT 2600... My September 15 message also showed the Nasd
aq Composite Index stalled at overhead resistance near 2600. Chart 5 shows t
hat still to be the case. A minor upside penetration early last week failed
to hold and the COMPQ is back below that resistance level (marked by the Jun
e low) and its 50-day moving average. The Nasdaq would have to close decisiv
ely above its September high (2643) to reverse its current downtrend. Chart
6 shows the S&P 500 in an eight-week trading range between overhead resistan
ce at 1230 and underlying support near 1100. It also remains below its movin
g average lines which means that the major trend is still down. That favors
an eventual drop to new lows (technical odds favor continuation of an existi
ng trend). The SPX would have to close above its mid-September peak at 1220
(and its 50-day average) to reverse that lower trend. Arthur Hill recently d
escribed the current trading range as a "wave four" consolidation within a "
five-wave" decline. That fits with my view for another downleg which would m
ost likely occur during the month of October. That carries good and bad news
. The bad news is that lower prices are expected into October. The good news
is that a five-wave decline is usually followed by a rally. In addition, Oc
tobers have a history of experiencing lower prices which are often followed
by market bottoms. In other words, things may have to get worse before they
can get better. | v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 2 这么重要的转贴每人看？这可是技术派超级大牛的付费newsletter
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【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: THINGS MAY HAVE TO GET WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER
: "Arthur Hill recently described the current trading range as a "wave four" c
: onsolidation within a "five-wave" decline. That fits with my view for anothe
: r downleg which would most likely occur during the month of October. That ca
: rries good and bad news. The bad news is that lower prices are expected into
: October. The good news is that a five-wave decline is usually followed by a
: rally. In addition, Octobers have a history of experiencing lower prices wh
: ich are often followed by market bottoms. In other words, things may have to
: get worse before they can get better."
: NASDAQ STILL STALLED AT 2600... My September 15 message also showed the Nasd
| k********8
发帖数: 7948 | | R******n
发帖数: 687 | 4 Fits my view as well. EFA and EEM are already showing 5 waves down. They
might be the first one to turn as well. Particularly EFA. | b*****2
发帖数: 11103 | | R******n
发帖数: 687 | 6 Just follow Fibonacci retracement lines. usually 61%, but could be as high
as 99% per EW theory.
【在 b*****2 的大作中提到】
: 五郎之后的rally有多大？
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