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发帖数: 2482 | 1 William O'Neil, part deux
12:01a ET September 15, 2011 (MarketWatch) LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The
telephone rang on a sunny Sunday afternoon in California. On the other end
was William O'Neil.
The living legend wanted to talk market.
When a man with one of the best track records extant wants to talk market,
you do not disappointment him.
Pieces of our conversation, which transpired on the 10th anniversary of 9/11
and then again on Sept. 14, are below. This a follow up to our email
exchange, published here on Tuesday. See: Conversation with a maverick
investor.
O'Neil, profiled in one of the classic Market Wizards books by Jack Schwager
, founded Investor's Business Daily (IBD) newspaper in 1984, for which he
continues to serve as chairman.
Q: Bill, the last time we spoke was in 1999. It is a very different
environment today. Since then, some investors lost 50% of their portfolio
during the '00-'02 bear market, 50% of their portfolio during the '07-'09
bear market, and perhaps 40% or more of the value of their home.
A: It's nice to speak with you again, Kevin. I'd like to begin by saying
that I did not create the investment system that we use. What we have done
is gone back and looked at past market cycles, and we have now looked at 27
of them. We have built models based not on my opinion of the way the market
is supposed to work, but based on how the market actually has worked during
past bull and bear markets.
A: We found that bull markets are created by entrepreneurial companies with
new products that do something either faster or cheaper or better. You can
look at the 'Nineties bull market, which was led by technology companies
like Cisco, Dell, and Microsoft. In the most recent decade, it was
innovative companies like Apple and Google
A: We have studied the way each bull market has topped and the way each bear
market has bottomed going back 120 years. In our research, we have learned
that indicators don't work.
Q: You believe that studying price and volume provides the most effective
way to analyzing the general market.
A: That's right. We do something different in Investor's Business Daily. On
one page we stack price/volume charts of the major averages, one on top of
the other. We also include a chart of an index of growth-stock mutual funds.
We look for divergences between the various averages.
A: We have found that the most effective way to analyze the general market
is to simply watch how the averages behave. What is the market doing right
now on a day-by-day basis? This means setting your personal opinion aside.
A: January is the most common month of the year for a bull market to top.
And April is the second-most common month. This year the market started
going through a distribution process in January that extended through April.
We are in year three of a bull market. In past bull markets, the averages
might rise 2% or 3% or 4% in such a period. However this is not a normal
economic recovery. A normal recovery might last 3 � to 4 years. The
stock market goes through super-cycles that last 15 to 18 years or so. The '
80s and '90s constituted one super-cycle. We are now in a different one,
where the market moves up for two years and then back down for a couple of
years.
Q: You are a believer in watching for distribution days in the averages,
indicating professional selling, to determine whether a market is topping.
Is there a particular number of distribution days you use to tell you
whether the market is beginning to get into trouble?
A: The number of distribution days that signals a probable top has changed
over the years. This is due to the markets being so much larger than before.
Institutions are managing a lot more money these days.
A: It used to be that three, four, or five distribution days would occur
before a top was signaled. Nowadays, it can be up to six distribution days.
What most investors don't realize is that a market will undergo distribution
as it is advancing.
A: Following an advance in the averages, I would ignore the first two days
of distribution, but I would begin to get concerned on the third
distribution day. On the fourth distribution day I would begin to sell some
of my positions. On the fifth day, I would sell more, and on the sixth day I
would sell more. The distribution day concept does not say how far down the
market will go or how long the decline will last. It could be two days, two
months, or two years. It is supply and demand that determines prices and
how far a decline might go.
A: We have seven or eight internal portfolio managers. When the market
topped on March 10, 2000, I think all of them were out of the market and in
cash by March 14. And I never said a word to any of them.
Q: And on the flip side, when a market is in a pronounced decline, you will
look for a follow-through day to tell you when you can begin to buy stock
again. (A follow-through day occurs when one or more of the major averages
is up materially on volume greater than that of the prior day.)
A: Yes, I like to wait for a follow-through day. This normally occurs on the
fourth to seventh day of rally from a low in the averages, although it can
sometimes be on the 10th or 15th day. The follow-through day tells you that
the trend is up. You don't know how far up. Two out of every three of them
may work.
A: And then once you see a follow-through day, you must study supply and
demand in the market averages to know if the rally is failing. A rally
failure does not necessarily mean an average has fallen to a new low after
the follow-through day. It can also be related to how much distribution has
occurred since the follow-through day.
A: Others can predict, but opinions can often be wrong. We don't use any
personal opinion. In our approach, we are bending with the market like a
tree bends in the wind.
Q: In terms of broad sectors or narrow groups, do you see much leadership
currently?
A: The gold miners and a few retailers are acting well. But our work does
not spend as much time with groups. We are more interested in buying the
best company in a leading group. A company with good earnings and revenue
growth, expanding profit margins, good return on equity, and that is a
leader in its field.
Q: Of course, I have to ask you which names you like in here.
A: We usually buy the most aggressive growth stocks in the market. But this
is a time to be defensive. Autozone is a stock that has had consistent
earnings growth and is in the business of selling auto parts to consumers.
In a soft economy or recession, some individuals will postpone buying a new
car, which should benefit a company like Autozone.
A: Another defensive stock is Colgate Palmolive , which has had consistent
earnings growth, high return on equity, and is positioned to benefit from
its stable line of businesses if the economy goes into recession.
A: Investors can learn more about our strategy by attending an IBD Meetup
Group in their area.
Q: We are seeing a number of speculative glamours act well, including
PriceSmart, Ulta Salon and Athenahealth, all of which recently broke out of
bases on volume; Cerner, which also broke out today; Dollar Tree, Acacia
Research, Alexion Pharmaceuticals and Hansen Natural. We are also beginning
to see some of the liquid glamours like Apple , Amazon.com, and Green
Mountain Coffee Roasters act well. Do you see enough of this type of
leadership to support a new bull market?
A: Yes, there is enough leadership. These are the companies with stronger
fundamentals, earnings, sales, ROE, product, etc. There are probably 20
stocks overall that have been big leaders. Some have been so for a long time
. At some point, the fact that these stocks have run up so much since 2009
will be a problem. We're still in a news-of-the-day market, which makes it
difficult for everyone.
Q: Overall, what is your outlook over the next few years?
A: We will eventually have another super-cycle of growth. But it will take a
change of management. Bringing in new managers to replace the current ones
should enable things to improve. And this process of improvement may begin
after the 2012 election.
A: During this last bear market, the S&P 500 went down 58%. In a normal
cycle, it should have gone down 20% or 25%. The housing sector has greatly
contributed to this. I believe that Ben Bernanke said one new home is being
built now versus the three that are usually built during a recovery.
A: Some people don't realize this, but in 1995, it was mandated in
Washington that a significant amount of new mortgages would go to people who
would not normally qualify for one. It is right to try to help those who
are less fortunate and might need some assistance in purchasing a home. But
at the same time, the government just does not have the experience that
banks and the private sector have when it comes to lending. This mandate was
a major reason for the excesses seen in the housing market.
For someone who has probably influenced more highly successful investors
than anyone else alive, Bill O'Neil remains strikingly humble. He has no
interest in taking credit for creating the CAN SLIM investment system, a
strategy used by countless thousands of devotees in virtually every country
on the planet.
To O'Neil, the real star is the market.
William O'Neil is chairman and CEO of William O'Neil+Co., a Registered
Investment Advisor. William O'Neil + Co. and its affiliates may now or in
the future have positions in securities mentioned in this interview. Go
tofor more information and legal notices.
At the time of this writing, of the stocks mentioned in this report, Kevin
Marder or an affiliate thereof held no positions, though positions are
subject to change at any time and without notice. | U********f
发帖数: 2482 | 2 William O'Neil 他的书一定要看
The
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【在 U********f 的大作中提到】
: William O'Neil, part deux
: 12:01a ET September 15, 2011 (MarketWatch) LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- The
: telephone rang on a sunny Sunday afternoon in California. On the other end
: was William O'Neil.
: The living legend wanted to talk market.
: When a man with one of the best track records extant wants to talk market,
: you do not disappointment him.
: Pieces of our conversation, which transpired on the 10th anniversary of 9/11
: and then again on Sept. 14, are below. This a follow up to our email
: exchange, published here on Tuesday. See: Conversation with a maverick
|
|
