c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 1 Consumers in early August say their view of the U.S. economy is the worst
since 1980 — a time covering the only back-to-back recessions in modern
history.
In fact, the sharp drop of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
is always a very reliable leading indicator of a recession since 1966! |
w**j
发帖数: 1032 | 2
零售没问题.8月初是让debt ceiling和降级给吓的.
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Consumers in early August say their view of the U.S. economy is the worst
: since 1980 — a time covering the only back-to-back recessions in modern
: history.
: In fact, the sharp drop of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
: is always a very reliable leading indicator of a recession since 1966!
|
w**j
发帖数: 1032 | 3
o8缺乏领导才能,只知道妥协.
茶党上台上的也实在不是时候.
【在 w**j 的大作中提到】
:
: 零售没问题.8月初是让debt ceiling和降级给吓的.
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 4 Reason does not matter, result matters. :)
【在 w**j 的大作中提到】
:
: o8缺乏领导才能,只知道妥协.
: 茶党上台上的也实在不是时候.
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 5 不说你的结论对错，consumer confidence近来已经被很多人所质疑。现在资讯太发达
，很难说到底是股市跌导致了信心下降还是反之。
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Consumers in early August say their view of the U.S. economy is the worst
: since 1980 — a time covering the only back-to-back recessions in modern
: history.
: In fact, the sharp drop of University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
: is always a very reliable leading indicator of a recession since 1966!
|
w**j
发帖数: 1032 | 6
群众接受采访的时候说害怕(信心指数),但是上个月买起东西来还是不含糊啊(retail
result).
股市跌了,谁信心能好啊.
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Reason does not matter, result matters. :)
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 7 remember, market is a place for digesting future expectation |
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 8 Again, no matter what, there will be only one result - recession!
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 不说你的结论对错，consumer confidence近来已经被很多人所质疑。现在资讯太发达
: ，很难说到底是股市跌导致了信心下降还是反之。
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 9 its about future. not past |
w**j
发帖数: 1032 | 10
good luck to your puts.
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Again, no matter what, there will be only one result - recession!
|
|
|
w**j
发帖数: 1032 | 11
shorters可真是人类共敌啊.
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Again, no matter what, there will be only one result - recession!
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 12 这个就属于屁股决定脑袋了。喊口号是木有用的。虽然我也认为现在不是底（至少得回测一次）
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: Again, no matter what, there will be only one result - recession!
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 13 I am just a messenger.
回测一次）
【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 这个就属于屁股决定脑袋了。喊口号是木有用的。虽然我也认为现在不是底（至少得回测一次）
|
Y*****g
发帖数: 158 | 14 As someone else has just said, retail sales are the past, consumer sentiment
is about the future. |
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 15 Bingo！
sentiment
【在 Y*****g 的大作中提到】
: As someone else has just said, retail sales are the past, consumer sentiment
: is about the future.
|
g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 16 上周末和昨天晚上陪人去mall买东西，感觉也还是很疯狂。
另外汽车消费肯定会继续回暖。再加上油价跌一点，再来个QE2.5的话，中期前景还是
不错的。
还有WTI跟brent的差价，对美国经济也非常有利，等于是加拿大墨西哥每天补贴美国2
亿美元。再加上日本地震，欧洲各种混乱，这样美国各种产品的成本都比欧亚竞争对手
低了很多，不管是出口还是夺回国内市场都有很大优势，最明显就是汽车。
【在 w**j 的大作中提到】
:
: shorters可真是人类共敌啊.
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 17 "Proven accuracy: Data from the Surveys of Consumers have proved to be
accurate indicators of the future course of the national economy. The data
are widely used by a broad range of business firms, financial institutions,
and federal agencies. The Index of Consumer Expectations is an official
component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, devised by the US
Department of Commerce. Each component is selected on its predictive
performance, economic significance, and statistical characteristics. No
other consumer survey meets these rigorous criteria. "
2
【在 g*q 的大作中提到】
: 上周末和昨天晚上陪人去mall买东西，感觉也还是很疯狂。
: 另外汽车消费肯定会继续回暖。再加上油价跌一点，再来个QE2.5的话，中期前景还是
: 不错的。
: 还有WTI跟brent的差价，对美国经济也非常有利，等于是加拿大墨西哥每天补贴美国2
: 亿美元。再加上日本地震，欧洲各种混乱，这样美国各种产品的成本都比欧亚竞争对手
: 低了很多，不管是出口还是夺回国内市场都有很大优势，最明显就是汽车。
|
g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 18 consumer confidence往往是滞后指标。
80年3月股市到底，5月消费信心到底。7月就all time high了。
,
【在 c*****r 的大作中提到】
: "Proven accuracy: Data from the Surveys of Consumers have proved to be
: accurate indicators of the future course of the national economy. The data
: are widely used by a broad range of business firms, financial institutions,
: and federal agencies. The Index of Consumer Expectations is an official
: component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, devised by the US
: Department of Commerce. Each component is selected on its predictive
: performance, economic significance, and statistical characteristics. No
: other consumer survey meets these rigorous criteria. "
:
: 2
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 19 所以我说这是一个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题
【在 g*q 的大作中提到】
: consumer confidence往往是滞后指标。
: 80年3月股市到底，5月消费信心到底。7月就all time high了。
:
: ,
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 20 “Future”，“official component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators
", 让你上嘴唇一碰下嘴唇，成滞后指标了。
LOL
【在 g*q 的大作中提到】
: consumer confidence往往是滞后指标。
: 80年3月股市到底，5月消费信心到底。7月就all time high了。
:
: ,
|
c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | |
