k*******d
发帖数: 1523 | | a****b
发帖数: 3588 | 2 RDN 也是
在YAHOO 上看到些贴子
这里贴1个
FYI
These stocks trade a lot on sentiment. Right now is "housing is getting
worse, the MIs are exposed to housing, short them into the ground", a year
ago it was "housing is improving, the MIs are exposed to housing, let's pile
into them."
The reality of RDN's situation is quite different. It's financial situation
changes slowly. Borrowers don't default just because the Case Shiller index
dropped 2%, nor do delinquent borrowers cure because it rose 2%.
What is clear is that RDN has ample financial flexibility for the next
several years. They are not facing any debt maturity until 2/15/2013, and
have plenty of holding company cash to pay that debt off when it matures,
and service their other debt in the meantime. So any talk of bankruptcy is
pure foolishness. Note that even TGIC, an MI that has been in runoff for 3
years, has never declared bankruptcy, because they no longer have any debt.
ABK, in a related but different industry, did have debt obligations it could
not meet. Neither RDN or any of the other MIs are in that situation for
five years at a minimum.
Meanwhile, RDN continues to write new business, and in fact has one of the
largest market shares in the business.
The legacy book will take time to work itself out, but it has been, slowly.
RDN itself has estimated that over 20% of the existing book will turn into
claims, but that still leaves the existing book with $1.5B in excess profits
. And that is counting the more recent, well underwritten books of business.
For all the saber rattling in Congress, the politicians will soon learn that
extricating the government from the GSEs in any quick and sudden manner
will lead us directly into a depression, something no one wants on their
hands. More likely, as was indicated by the White House white paper on the
GSEs, the MIs will be ask to take on more of the GSEs risk, resulting in
even more future business for the industry.
In the meantime the FHA has raised rates, again, so the benefit of that
should start to flow through in the next few months. The last FHA rate raise
was largely negated due to an increase in g-fees, but that was not repeated
this time, so this time it will truly be a net benefit to new insurance
writings.
Someone is getting really wealthy manipulating these stocks, while others
are going broke. Pre-capital raising, RDN was not worth $18, but neither is
it worth only $4 a share today.
I have just started to build my position so today's drop is welcome.
I'm not sure what some investors expect. If RDN is going to pay out as much in
claims as even management expects, it means the decline in delinquencies is
going to be a slow grind.
But as I mentioned, even if they pay out as much as they expect, they will still
have excess profitability.
Look at what they said: they expect to pay out $1.7B in claims this year, and
over the life of the existing portfolio they expect to pay $4.5B on a present
value basis. Much of that payout will come from the bubble years, so will occur
over the next couple years. So maybe they will pay up to $5B on a nominal basis.
So of course delinquencies are going to decline slowly. You wouldn't expect them
to go to zero and then start climbing again. And of course new delinquencies are
going to come in, given the economic situation we are facing. But as RDN
management has demonstrated, even with another three years or so of losses at
the current level, the current book will still generate a profit. It's not a
matter of if, but when.
And that loss level seems right to me. Their current risk in force is $31B, and
they estimate $6.6B losses will result, or 21% loss rate, and they will pay
$4.5B in present value, after rescissions and denials.
Against that they have $3.3B in reserves booked, and $2.7B in future premiums,
just from the existing book.
Plus, even at today's low levels of NIW, they are probably adding $100M of
future profit every quarter.
And as I mentioned, RDN has the liquidity to wait it out - they face no
liquidity issues for at least 5 years. | k*******d
发帖数: 1523 | | k*******d
发帖数: 1523 | 4 MTG跌穿六块了..快到RDN的价格空间鸟..
RDN直奔PMI的价格空间去鸟..
以后就把RDN当PMI买.. MTG当RDN买..
PMI可以忽视鸟.. |
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