m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 1 Early this year, I sold all my real estate holding NCT, GKK, RAS with goof
decent gain. Especially, NCT and GKK.
Recently, I bought back NCT at a little over $6(Still under water right now).
The reason I like NCT is follows
1) Strong Cash flow from their CDO, and expect the cash flow will increase
next couple of quarters
2) Market dislocation gives management good opportunities to invest their
Cash and buy back their CDO debt at deep discount. Management had proved
their ability to take advantage of this market in the last two years.
3) Their net liquidation value raised from Negative to over $5 last quarter(
my estimate).
4) They don't have to deal with the debt in the next few years.
5) Possibility to restart dividend by next year.
Risk:
1)Economics goes down and hurt the commercial real estate
2) They try to raise additional capital.
In all, I bought over 30K shares and will take the chance.
But I would avoid RAS especially GKK right now. |
j***9
发帖数: 698 | 2 add to my watchlist...thanks |
r****n
发帖数: 639 | 3 哇，名菜大牛终于回来了！谢谢分享pick！
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Early this year, I sold all my real estate holding NCT, GKK, RAS with goof
: decent gain. Especially, NCT and GKK.
: Recently, I bought back NCT at a little over $6(Still under water right now).
: The reason I like NCT is follows
: 1) Strong Cash flow from their CDO, and expect the cash flow will increase
: next couple of quarters
: 2) Market dislocation gives management good opportunities to invest their
: Cash and buy back their CDO debt at deep discount. Management had proved
: their ability to take advantage of this market in the last two years.
: 3) Their net liquidation value raised from Negative to over $5 last quarter(
|
s****l
发帖数: 10462 | 4 thanks, especially for the analysis! |
P**H
发帖数: 2272 | 5 菜牛怎么看ABR？另外NCT和RAS是不是会受到升息冲击？ |
c***m
发帖数: 2630 | 6 The most important is where they develop their buildings? Are they condos or
business oriented?
it is so risky if you just analysis their technical data without truly
understand their real value. I guess you properly have done your homework
already, but from the reasons you typed, you didn't show anything on this
area. |
P**H
发帖数: 2272 | 7 菜牛提醒的对，只看了一些报表数据，没有去具体去研究数据的future。NCT的EPS挺好
的，而且PEG也是我期望的，但还想观望五天，最近的量震荡感觉还可以横盘几天。谢
谢菜牛的Pick。
or
【在 c***m 的大作中提到】
: The most important is where they develop their buildings? Are they condos or
: business oriented?
: it is so risky if you just analysis their technical data without truly
: understand their real value. I guess you properly have done your homework
: already, but from the reasons you typed, you didn't show anything on this
: area.
|
g********5
发帖数: 10335 | 8 zan RP post!
now).
quarter(
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Early this year, I sold all my real estate holding NCT, GKK, RAS with goof
: decent gain. Especially, NCT and GKK.
: Recently, I bought back NCT at a little over $6(Still under water right now).
: The reason I like NCT is follows
: 1) Strong Cash flow from their CDO, and expect the cash flow will increase
: next couple of quarters
: 2) Market dislocation gives management good opportunities to invest their
: Cash and buy back their CDO debt at deep discount. Management had proved
: their ability to take advantage of this market in the last two years.
: 3) Their net liquidation value raised from Negative to over $5 last quarter(
|
s***n
发帖数: 448 | 9 顶minncai大牛！
now).
quarter(
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Early this year, I sold all my real estate holding NCT, GKK, RAS with goof
: decent gain. Especially, NCT and GKK.
: Recently, I bought back NCT at a little over $6(Still under water right now).
: The reason I like NCT is follows
: 1) Strong Cash flow from their CDO, and expect the cash flow will increase
: next couple of quarters
: 2) Market dislocation gives management good opportunities to invest their
: Cash and buy back their CDO debt at deep discount. Management had proved
: their ability to take advantage of this market in the last two years.
: 3) Their net liquidation value raised from Negative to over $5 last quarter(
|
u****s
发帖数: 372 | |
|
|
h*t
发帖数: 220 | |
w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 12 Will touch $4 in one month.
Good luck! |
b*****7
发帖数: 631 | 13 无脑跟300股！@5.20
I know nothing about this company. I will just take chance to follow Daniu. |
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 14 initial the dividend today.
now).
quarter(
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Early this year, I sold all my real estate holding NCT, GKK, RAS with goof
: decent gain. Especially, NCT and GKK.
: Recently, I bought back NCT at a little over $6(Still under water right now).
: The reason I like NCT is follows
: 1) Strong Cash flow from their CDO, and expect the cash flow will increase
: next couple of quarters
: 2) Market dislocation gives management good opportunities to invest their
: Cash and buy back their CDO debt at deep discount. Management had proved
: their ability to take advantage of this market in the last two years.
: 3) Their net liquidation value raised from Negative to over $5 last quarter(
|
b******u
发帖数: 1559 | |
r*******e
发帖数: 62 | 16 minncai, should we keep holding NCT or sell it?
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: initial the dividend today.
:
: now).
: quarter(
|
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 17 They had 0.30 cash flow from their CDO investment last quarter. I expect the
cash flow will increase in the next couple of quarters.
I will hold strong especially in light of 0.40/year dividend.
【在 r*******e 的大作中提到】
: minncai, should we keep holding NCT or sell it?
|
k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 18 IVR怎么样啊？
一年$4的dividend?
the
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: They had 0.30 cash flow from their CDO investment last quarter. I expect the
: cash flow will increase in the next couple of quarters.
: I will hold strong especially in light of 0.40/year dividend.
|
