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Stock版 - 给linkedin快速估值 (转载)
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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: linkedin话题: market话题: us话题: priceline话题: google
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1 (共1页)
v*****k
发帖数: 7798
1
【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Investment
标 题: 给linkedin快速估值
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 24 19:23:25 2011, 美东)
用十分钟给linkedin估一下值。只算到数量级,very very rough.
assumptions:
1. target market for US:
a: total workers in US 100M
b: 20% will use linkedin (most low level jobs will never need linkedin)
c: people change job every 10 years
d: average employer'd pay $1,500 for every qualified hire
->$3Billon per year from US when the marekt is relatively mature
2. worldwide market:
2 x US market (considering extensibility across border, lower than google
, close to priceline)
->$6B worldwide
3. market share:
50% (refer to other dominant platforms google/bidu/priceline/ebay,
slightly lower than google, higher than priceline)
->$3B revenue for linkedin
4. operating margin:
30% (refer to google/bidu/priceline/ebay...)
5. P/E
15-18 when relatively mature
->P/S: 3.5-4
->market cap: $12B, $120/share
6: taking how long to reach target condition
5 years
($400million for 2011 -> $3Billion for 2016, 50% annual growth)
7. discounted value:
$85/share (8% discout rate)
conclusion: $85接近目前的价格。如果linkedin真能dominate这个professional
development/recruitment market, 基本应该就值这个价钱,或者稍稍被低估。这个
market的总量还是比较有限。
B*S
发帖数: 1328
2
nice...
w******s
发帖数: 16209
3

linked in is not the only player here.
google
linked in could enter china?
this is reasonable.
what is their current market share now?
where is monster.com? craigslist for hiring?
reasonable

【在 v*****k 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Investment 讨论区 】
: 发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Investment
: 标 题: 给linkedin快速估值
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue May 24 19:23:25 2011, 美东)
: 用十分钟给linkedin估一下值。只算到数量级,very very rough.
: assumptions:
: 1. target market for US:
: a: total workers in US 100M
: b: 20% will use linkedin (most low level jobs will never need linkedin)
: c: people change job every 10 years

b******r
发帖数: 16603
4
LNKD说是在开拓中国市场。
那不是要跟JOBS打一架了么。
http://www.tickerspy.com/newswire/?p=4604

【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
:
: linked in is not the only player here.
: google
: linked in could enter china?
: this is reasonable.
: what is their current market share now?
: where is monster.com? craigslist for hiring?
: reasonable

w******s
发帖数: 16209
5
it is blocked? :
LinkedIn was temporarily blocked in China in February, Reuters reported.
LinkedIn noted that it does face political and technical challenges in China
and that it isn’t close to making a decision, but that it is gathering
information on the Chinese market, Reuters reported, citing a LinkedIn
executive.

【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: LNKD说是在开拓中国市场。
: 那不是要跟JOBS打一架了么。
: http://www.tickerspy.com/newswire/?p=4604

b******r
发帖数: 16603
6
我觉得这批要进中国都得走跟买办合资的路。
象groupon跟QQ,facebook跟bidu这样。自己估计搞不定。

China

【在 w******s 的大作中提到】
: it is blocked? :
: LinkedIn was temporarily blocked in China in February, Reuters reported.
: LinkedIn noted that it does face political and technical challenges in China
: and that it isn’t close to making a decision, but that it is gathering
: information on the Chinese market, Reuters reported, citing a LinkedIn
: executive.

1 (共1页)
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话题: linkedin话题: market话题: us话题: priceline话题: google