i**********0
发帖数: 73 | 1 FYI
Despite significant revision, we still see downside to 1Q consensus EPS
estimates
We expect non-GAAP revenue to rise 19% yoy to US$95m, which is in line with
company
guidance (US$93m-96m). This is mainly driven by 34% yoy growth in ad revenue
. We expect
the GAAP gross margin to further decline 2ppt qoq to 56% on higher video
content and
bandwidth costs, and the non-GAAP op margin to narrow 4ppt qoq to 23% on
higher S&M
expenditure on miniblog. We note that Bloomberg consensus estimates for 1Q11
earnings
have fallen down significantly over the past two months but we still see
downside to the
current estimate (US$0.27) and our forecast (US$0.35). Notably, the
consensus EPS
estimate for FY11 still remains high at US$1.70 vs our forecast US$1.55. We
believe
downgrades to FY11 earnings will continue.
Focus of the call
For miniblog, we will be looking out for updates on user metrics,
monetisation efforts and
timeline, and the company’s strategies to compete against Tencent’s
miniblog and other SNS
products. We will also be focusing on the company’s outlook for video
content and bandwidth
costs, as well as margin guidance for the rest of the year.
Valuation
Our US$69 TP is based on our FY11F PE-based SOTP valuation which implies 44x
FY11F
PE and 37x FY12 PE. The stock is trading at HK$125.19, which represents 81x
FY11
(US$1.55) and 67x FY12 (U$1.86) non-GAAP diluted earnings, on our estimates.
Conference call details
Management will hold a conference call on May 12 at 9am HKT (May 11 at 9pm
EST). To
dial in to the call: US +1-617-786-2905, UK +44-2073658426, HK +852-30021672;
passcode: 57165140. Dial in 10 minutes prior to the start. The call will be
available on replay
at: +1-617-213-4164; passcode: 22636065; available through 18 May.
9 May 2011
Analysts
Wendy Huang
Hong Kong
+852 3988 7193
w*********[email protected]
Amanda Eng
Hong Kong
+852 3988 7246
a********[email protected]
38/F Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's
Road Central, Hong Kong
http://research. | v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 2 LOL what a bunch of crooks
with
revenue
【在 i**********0 的大作中提到】
: FYI
: Despite significant revision, we still see downside to 1Q consensus EPS
: estimates
: We expect non-GAAP revenue to rise 19% yoy to US$95m, which is in line with
: company
: guidance (US$93m-96m). This is mainly driven by 34% yoy growth in ad revenue
: . We expect
: the GAAP gross margin to further decline 2ppt qoq to 56% on higher video
: content and
: bandwidth costs, and the non-GAAP op margin to narrow 4ppt qoq to 23% on
| H********7
发帖数: 2369 | 3 这帮人估计没有真正用过QQ微波和新浪微波
with
revenue
【在 i**********0 的大作中提到】
: FYI
: Despite significant revision, we still see downside to 1Q consensus EPS
: estimates
: We expect non-GAAP revenue to rise 19% yoy to US$95m, which is in line with
: company
: guidance (US$93m-96m). This is mainly driven by 34% yoy growth in ad revenue
: . We expect
: the GAAP gross margin to further decline 2ppt qoq to 56% on higher video
: content and
: bandwidth costs, and the non-GAAP op margin to narrow 4ppt qoq to 23% on
| v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 4 还跟那儿撅着屁股算EPS呢，哇哈哈哈
【在 H********7 的大作中提到】
: 这帮人估计没有真正用过QQ微波和新浪微波
:
: with
: revenue
| g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 5 这个同意。
能算清楚EPS的中概都不能要!
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: 还跟那儿撅着屁股算EPS呢，哇哈哈哈
|
|
