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k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 1 啥灯也没提到，飞机到是被揍下来两架。。。日
要不是XES撑着，全军覆没啊。。。
是不是OE 闹的？ | C*G
发帖数: 7495 | | t*****9
发帖数: 10416 | | k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 4
看了一圈，基本全红。。。妈的，都是串通好的？
没关系，下周补长。。
【在 C*G 的大作中提到】
: 我老的油气股表现也很惨烈，血淋淋呀
: 哭死哭死
| s***y
发帖数: 357 | | k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 6
我还是觉得是OE的原因，盘后都涨回来了。
【在 s***y 的大作中提到】
: BRL跌了一点，有点影响吧
| z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 7 Why PBR? Yes presalt is huge, but PBR is not an E&P company
It is a national oil company which needs to
a) provide oil at low price
b) build refining capacity at very high capex and sell low to domestic
consumers...
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: 啥灯也没提到，飞机到是被揍下来两架。。。日
: 要不是XES撑着，全军覆没啊。。。
: 是不是OE 闹的？
| b*****n
发帖数: 2478 | 8 今天上了CHK，跌了好多：（
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: 啥灯也没提到，飞机到是被揍下来两架。。。日
: 要不是XES撑着，全军覆没啊。。。
: 是不是OE 闹的？
| k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 9
the reason is that PBR is safer...more or less it will benefit from the high oil price.
A little more than half shares (52%) are held by government...
my principle is safety first, profit second... see today PBR is only several Greens among big oil companies.
in compensation, I hold XES for E&Ps benefit.
PBR is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, and operates in five business segments: Exploration and Production (E&P; 24% of 2009 revenues, 55% of 2009 operating income), Supply (47%, 37%), Distribution (18%, 4%), Gas & Energy (4%, 3%), and International (7%, 1%).
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: Why PBR? Yes presalt is huge, but PBR is not an E&P company
: It is a national oil company which needs to
: a) provide oil at low price
: b) build refining capacity at very high capex and sell low to domestic
: consumers...
| z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 10 The problem is national interest vs. shareholder interest
a) Brazil is net short refining capacity and wants to build refiners. PBR
has to buildrefiners at 10x price new vs. market value of refiners in
the US. The economics favors importing to building, but the national
interest requires it to build, using shareholder's money
b) Brazil regulates retail price of gasoline/diesel. I can envision a scenario
where oil price is $150/bl, R&M cost is $5/bl, and yet
they are selling at $3/gallon... Under this scenario, you will see
a big profit in the E&P segment, only offset by big loss in the R&M
segment
high oil price.
several Greens among big oil companies.
in five business segments:
Exploration and Production (E&P; 24% of 2009 revenues, 55% of 2009 operating
income), Supply (47%, 37%),
Distribution (18%, 4%), Gas & Energy (4%, 3%), and International (7%, 1%).
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
:
: the reason is that PBR is safer...more or less it will benefit from the high oil price.
: A little more than half shares (52%) are held by government...
: my principle is safety first, profit second... see today PBR is only several Greens among big oil companies.
: in compensation, I hold XES for E&Ps benefit.
: PBR is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world, and operates in five business segments: Exploration and Production (E&P; 24% of 2009 revenues, 55% of 2009 operating income), Supply (47%, 37%), Distribution (18%, 4%), Gas & Energy (4%, 3%), and International (7%, 1%).
| | | k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 11
scenario
yes, all of that has been written in many analysts report...
but I don't think Brazil government will lock the retail gas/disel price for
very long term given
the skyrockting crude oil price.
My vision is the President Obama visiting Brazil for exporting oil to US and
joint venture exploring the subsalt offshore oil. PBR definitely will
benefit from that. PBR will put more efforts on international market.
I will give you a S&P assessment herein attached:
By the way, George Solos loaded up a lot of shares.. is that true?
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: The problem is national interest vs. shareholder interest
: a) Brazil is net short refining capacity and wants to build refiners. PBR
: has to buildrefiners at 10x price new vs. market value of refiners in
: the US. The economics favors importing to building, but the national
: interest requires it to build, using shareholder's money
: b) Brazil regulates retail price of gasoline/diesel. I can envision a scenario
: where oil price is $150/bl, R&M cost is $5/bl, and yet
: they are selling at $3/gallon... Under this scenario, you will see
: a big profit in the E&P segment, only offset by big loss in the R&M
: segment
| k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 12 Quoted from a paper called "9 Stocks George Soros Is Buying"
Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR): This massive Brazilian producer has been boosted
recently by the major discovery of reserves off the Brazilian coast. This
type of extraction is more costly than traditional extraction, so, as prices
for oil rise, the justification and margin son this type of extraction
grows. Libyan instability leads to spike in oil prices which leads to
increased value of PetroBras’s reserves. That said, this type of extraction
is also known for its long-term nature. That means that investors are aware
that the benefits of the reserves will be elongated over a period of time
so momentary shakes to the oil market can have less of an effect on the
stock. This is a double-edged sword. | z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 13 PBR will export crude at market price, but Brazil currently has so much
domestic demand currently it barely exports anything. I suspect
domestic policy will still favor serving the people than the shareholders
Things could change when presalt brings more supply than demand
grwoth, but it will be 5-10 years away.
According to 13F filings, Soros fund bought huge amount of shares
(30mm shares at peak) during 4Q08 bottom and sold them all in 09. It
starts to chip in small amount 4Q09 but nowhere near before
(~500k shares)
Why not pick one of these emerging US shale oil plays instead? You
probably have a much bigger edge and these lesser known
companies can bring much bigger upside when it works...
for
and
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: Quoted from a paper called "9 Stocks George Soros Is Buying"
: Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR): This massive Brazilian producer has been boosted
: recently by the major discovery of reserves off the Brazilian coast. This
: type of extraction is more costly than traditional extraction, so, as prices
: for oil rise, the justification and margin son this type of extraction
: grows. Libyan instability leads to spike in oil prices which leads to
: increased value of PetroBras’s reserves. That said, this type of extraction
: is also known for its long-term nature. That means that investors are aware
: that the benefits of the reserves will be elongated over a period of time
: so momentary shakes to the oil market can have less of an effect on the
| k********n
发帖数: 18523 | 14
great reply... appreciate.
I kind of concern about the safety....
small company stock price really has been up a lot...
【在 z***e 的大作中提到】
: PBR will export crude at market price, but Brazil currently has so much
: domestic demand currently it barely exports anything. I suspect
: domestic policy will still favor serving the people than the shareholders
: Things could change when presalt brings more supply than demand
: grwoth, but it will be 5-10 years away.
: According to 13F filings, Soros fund bought huge amount of shares
: (30mm shares at peak) during 4Q08 bottom and sold them all in 09. It
: starts to chip in small amount 4Q09 but nowhere near before
: (~500k shares)
: Why not pick one of these emerging US shale oil plays instead? You
| z***e
发帖数: 5600 | 15 Correction: starts to chip in 4Q10
On the small companies, risky if you know nothing about their assets
much more reward if you understand what they are doing and how
they are doing, since most people have never heard of them or have
no clue how it works (including myself)
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
:
: great reply... appreciate.
: I kind of concern about the safety....
: small company stock price really has been up a lot...
| k********n
发帖数: 18523 | | g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 17 在涨三块，凑个110吧!
【在 k********n 的大作中提到】
: 啥灯也没提到，飞机到是被揍下来两架。。。日
: 要不是XES撑着，全军覆没啊。。。
: 是不是OE 闹的？
| s*****r
发帖数: 1745 | 18 110?
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: 在涨三块，凑个110吧!
| s*****r
发帖数: 1745 | 19 what is 110??
【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】
: 110?
| g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 20 WTI Crude
【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】
: 110?
| s*****r
发帖数: 1745 | 21 PBR好呀，分红也不错， 在38多就走了，
【在 g*****u 的大作中提到】
: WTI Crude
| g*****u
发帖数: 14294 | 22 不懂油股个股。搞搞ETF算了。
【在 s*****r 的大作中提到】
: PBR好呀，分红也不错， 在38多就走了，
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