j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 1 发信人: joyjoy (joy), 信区: Investment
标 题: 又算算投资CD的收益
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Mar 27 22:04:46 2011, 美东)
原始数据 http://mortgage-x.com/general/indexes/
取每年一月的average CODI做粗略一年的CD rate
Column 1: year
Column 2: Total return including dividend
Column 3: inflation rate of that year
Column 4: Total inflation adjusted return
Column 5: Investment balance at end of that year (initial deposit 10k)
Column 6: Compound years (used for Column 7)
Column 7: Compound Annual Growth Rate (Annualized Return)
1991 8.4 4.21% 4.19% $10,419.19 20 1.80%
1992 6.844 3.01% 3.83% $10,818.63 19 1.68%
1993 4.395 2.99% 1.40% $10,970.25 18 1.56%
1994 3.273 2.56% 0.71% $11,048.40 17 1.57%
1995 3.862 2.83% 1.03% $11,161.98 16 1.63%
1996 5.719 2.95% 2.77% $11,470.75 15 1.67%
1997 5.523 2.29% 3.23% $11,841.09 14 1.59%
1998 5.521 1.56% 3.96% $12,310.39 13 1.46%
1999 5.58 2.21% 3.37% $12,725.42 12 1.26%
2000 5.232 3.36% 1.87% $12,963.47 11 1.07%
2001 6.092 2.85% 3.25% $13,384.33 10 0.99%
2002 5.1 1.58% 3.52% $13,855.32 9 0.74%
2003 2.178 2.28% -0.10% $13,841.32 8 0.40%
2004 1.352 2.66% -1.31% $13,659.85 7 0.47%
2005 1.267 3.39% -2.12% $13,370.12 6 0.77%
2006 2.751 3.23% -0.47% $13,306.64 5 1.36%
2007 4.629 2.85% 1.78% $13,543.60 4 1.82%
2008 5.299 3.84% 1.46% $13,741.27 3 1.83%
2009 3.846 -0.36% 4.20% $14,318.64 2 2.02%
2010 1.518 1.64% -0.12% $14,301.14 1 -0.12%
从20年的数据看， 投资CD 基本可以beat inflation. 算保值的一种简单方法。
同期 S&P 500 的表现:
1991 30.95 4.21% 26.74% $126,741.89 20 6.43%
1992 7.6 3.01% 4.59% $132,558.99 19 5.46%
1993 10.17 2.99% 7.18% $142,071.97 18 5.50%
1994 1.19 2.56% -1.37% $140,124.80 17 5.41%
1995 38.02 2.83% 35.19% $189,429.10 16 5.85%
1996 23.06 2.95% 20.11% $227,518.07 15 4.13%
1997 33.67 2.29% 31.38% $298,903.11 14 3.08%
1998 28.73 1.56% 27.17% $380,122.16 13 1.17%
1999 21.11 2.21% 18.90% $451,970.61 12 -0.74%
2000 -9.11 3.36% -12.47% $395,603.80 11 -2.35%
2001 -11.98 2.85% -14.83% $336,953.44 10 -1.28%
2002 -22.27 1.58% -23.85% $256,586.58 9 0.35%
2003 28.72 2.28% 26.44% $324,430.53 8 3.87%
2004 10.82 2.66% 8.16% $350,894.19 7 1.00%
2005 4.79 3.39% 1.40% $355,813.60 6 -0.15%
2006 15.74 3.23% 12.51% $400,340.80 5 -0.46%
2007 5.46 2.85% 2.61% $410,796.84 4 -3.46%
2008 -37.22 3.84% -41.06% $242,125.51 3 -5.40%
2009 27.11 -0.36% 27.47% $308,627.16 2 19.84%
2010 14.32 1.64% 12.68% $347,760.23 1 12.68% | G*******m
发帖数: 16326 | 2 1999年的IBond，现在的回报是100%了。 | G*******m
发帖数: 16326 | 3 2003年的IBond，现在的收益才34%。
差4年，收益差很多。 | c*********t
发帖数: 2921 | 4 还是克林顿最牛逼，1995-1999股票每年都是20-30%的涨。小布什最熊了，美国就是败
在共和党人手里了。
【在 j****y 的大作中提到】
: 发信人: joyjoy (joy), 信区: Investment
: 标 题: 又算算投资CD的收益
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Mar 27 22:04:46 2011, 美东)
: 原始数据 http://mortgage-x.com/general/indexes/
: 取每年一月的average CODI做粗略一年的CD rate
: Column 1: year
: Column 2: Total return including dividend
: Column 3: inflation rate of that year
: Column 4: Total inflation adjusted return
: Column 5: Investment balance at end of that year (initial deposit 10k)
| j****y
发帖数: 1714 | 5 哈哈。另一种说法是克林顿吹大了迟早要破的泡沫，小布什做了冤大头。
【在 c*********t 的大作中提到】
: 还是克林顿最牛逼，1995-1999股票每年都是20-30%的涨。小布什最熊了，美国就是败
: 在共和党人手里了。
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